Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgman, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm.

A wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the US. Low pressure over the TX/LA Gulf Coast slowly lifts north this evening with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid- Mississippi valley where Arctic High Pressure has a grip over the Midwest. This high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). Forecast soundings do show saturation occuring prior to midnight ET for those along and south of US 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak Sunday; armchair meteorologists may scoff Sunday morning about the lack of snow but more is on the way.

Our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day Sunday and tapering off after sunset. This is when a second, more potent low currently digging in over the Baja of California lifts northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. By this time, high pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the S Southeast US. The 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed close to the existing forecast. There were some northward shifts in CAMs (as well as the NAM). Balancing the dry air mass, subtle northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch, we've generally held course with this afternoon's forecast package.

In coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over- boosted by the very cold air mass. Indeed, the 15k FT deep dendritic growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. Nonetheless, a fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. These rates are most likely around sunrise Sunday morning as an area of mid-level frontogenesis passes overhead. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become westerly by the snow's end.

A single band of lake effect develops Sunday night as this surface low becomes centered off the New England coast. The band tracks from the western Lake Michigan shore to the east which will limit residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings through. Depending on its residence time for the Monday morning commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Michiana.

Dangerous cold returns Monday night (did it ever really leave?) with -22C noted at 850 mb, good for apparent temperatures Tuesday morning near 20-below zero. Temperatures attempt to moderate after but are limited by an incoming clipper midweek. Thus, cold with lake effect snow is in store for the week ahead.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail until later this evening, with increasing mid level clouds and developing easterly winds (5-10 mph) in advance of a storm system on target to bring increasing chances for light snow tonight into Sunday morning. However, there is a lot of low level dry air to overcome which could delay the start time of light snow and associated IFR-MVFR conditions, which decreases confidence. Yet chose to keep current forecast mostly the same, and do expect deteriorating conditions by daybreak Sunday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for INZ005>008-012>015- 020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for INZ009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
OH...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.