Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pistol River, OR
October 11, 2024 2:44 AM PDT (09:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:23 AM Sunset 6:42 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM Moonset 12:00 AM |
PZZ815 Florence, Or To Point St. George Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 831 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 10 2024
Tonight - E to ne winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri - SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S to se 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night - S to se winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat - S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
Sat night - S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Sun - S winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sun night - S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Mon - S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Mon night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
Tue - N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 831 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 10 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E to ne 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat - SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat night - S to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Sun - S winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Sun night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S to sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft.
Mon - W to sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw. Seas 9 to 10 ft.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS66 KMFR 102339 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 439 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION
Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under west to southwest flow aloft, with generally weak high pressure in control providing dry conditions and temperatures generally at or just above seasonal normals. Some residual high level clouds are still streaming over the area today, but for the most part, the skies are clear. Just offshore, however, satellite imagery shows a large area of clouds heading our way, and this is the next frontal system due to arrive tomorrow.
This trough will approach the area tomorrow, then split into a closed low as it moves onshore right along the CA/OR state line late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will put the main belt of moisture inflow into northern and central California, keeping most of our forecast area dry, with the exception of the coast and portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties, but even then rainfall amounts will be very light, if measurable at all.
Despite the lack of rain, increased clouds and lower heights aloft will make for a cool Saturday across the forecast area.
After this low passes, we return to generally seasonable temperatures and dry weather under weak high pressure for early next week. Around Tuesday or Wednesday, the next trough arrives, and this one has a good chance to hold together enough to produce at least light rain for the majority, if not all, of the forecast area. The arrival of this system are generally well agreed upon throughout the model suites, actually arriving as two waves/fronts Wednesday and Thursday. There are some questions that need to be answered regarding strength of the event as it moves through, with a wide range of possibilities across those same suites. That being said, it does suggest that we will see an overall pattern change with the arrival of this system, trending towards a somewhat wetter and cooler pattern as we head into late next week.
-BPN
AVIATION
11/00Z TAFs...Clear skies continue to support VFR levels across most of northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Haze at Roseburg has lowered visibility to MVFR, but this does not appear to be a long-term concern. For inland areas, VFR levels are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Guidance is showing a possibility of marine stratus developing along the Oregon coast tonight. Models show the stratus developing to the south and moving northward early Friday morning, but the chances are slight (15-30%). Timing has been included in TAFs for reference, but confidence in the actual development is low. Any stratus that does develop should clear out by late Friday morning. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, October 10, 2024...Seas have fallen below advisory level as northerly winds continue to decrease.
These conditions will continue until early Saturday morning, when a cutoff low will bring slight chances for showers (20-40%) to area waters through the day. Elevated south-southwesterly swell will also move with this system, building steep seas in waters beyond 30 nm from shore during the day. A Small Craft Advisory is in place from Friday at 11 PM through Saturday at 5 PM to communicate these conditions.
Stable sea states will return from Saturday evening through Monday morning, when northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive in area waters. This swell looks to be more substantial, possibly building seas of 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds across area waters by Monday afternoon. Seas would decrease steadily through Tuesday and Wednesday. Active weather is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure system could bring widespread rainfall to the area.
-TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 439 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Updated AVIATION discussion
DISCUSSION
Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under west to southwest flow aloft, with generally weak high pressure in control providing dry conditions and temperatures generally at or just above seasonal normals. Some residual high level clouds are still streaming over the area today, but for the most part, the skies are clear. Just offshore, however, satellite imagery shows a large area of clouds heading our way, and this is the next frontal system due to arrive tomorrow.
This trough will approach the area tomorrow, then split into a closed low as it moves onshore right along the CA/OR state line late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will put the main belt of moisture inflow into northern and central California, keeping most of our forecast area dry, with the exception of the coast and portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties, but even then rainfall amounts will be very light, if measurable at all.
Despite the lack of rain, increased clouds and lower heights aloft will make for a cool Saturday across the forecast area.
After this low passes, we return to generally seasonable temperatures and dry weather under weak high pressure for early next week. Around Tuesday or Wednesday, the next trough arrives, and this one has a good chance to hold together enough to produce at least light rain for the majority, if not all, of the forecast area. The arrival of this system are generally well agreed upon throughout the model suites, actually arriving as two waves/fronts Wednesday and Thursday. There are some questions that need to be answered regarding strength of the event as it moves through, with a wide range of possibilities across those same suites. That being said, it does suggest that we will see an overall pattern change with the arrival of this system, trending towards a somewhat wetter and cooler pattern as we head into late next week.
-BPN
AVIATION
11/00Z TAFs...Clear skies continue to support VFR levels across most of northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Haze at Roseburg has lowered visibility to MVFR, but this does not appear to be a long-term concern. For inland areas, VFR levels are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Guidance is showing a possibility of marine stratus developing along the Oregon coast tonight. Models show the stratus developing to the south and moving northward early Friday morning, but the chances are slight (15-30%). Timing has been included in TAFs for reference, but confidence in the actual development is low. Any stratus that does develop should clear out by late Friday morning. -TAD
MARINE
Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, October 10, 2024...Seas have fallen below advisory level as northerly winds continue to decrease.
These conditions will continue until early Saturday morning, when a cutoff low will bring slight chances for showers (20-40%) to area waters through the day. Elevated south-southwesterly swell will also move with this system, building steep seas in waters beyond 30 nm from shore during the day. A Small Craft Advisory is in place from Friday at 11 PM through Saturday at 5 PM to communicate these conditions.
Stable sea states will return from Saturday evening through Monday morning, when northwesterly swell is forecast to arrive in area waters. This swell looks to be more substantial, possibly building seas of 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds across area waters by Monday afternoon. Seas would decrease steadily through Tuesday and Wednesday. Active weather is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure system could bring widespread rainfall to the area.
-TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-376.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBOK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBOK
Wind History Graph: BOK
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest
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