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LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
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lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 230339 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1139 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023


AVIATION

Sfc dewpoints around FNT and mbS have remained elevated, around 60 degrees since the brief round of late afternoon convection. With sfc wind speeds light, IFR conditions in fog will be mentioned at both mbS and FNT. Sfc dewpoints are a little lower at the Detroit terminals. Given this and with a slightly stronger easterly gradient atop the shallow nocturnal stable layer, vsby reductions will remain in the MVFR category at the Detroit terminals. With a little better push of subsidence and drying Saturday afternoon, the daytime cu flare up is not expected to be as great as today, with skies likely remaining clear or with just few cu.


DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

DISCUSSION...

Weather will be pretty quiet across the region through the weekend as we remain trapped under an upper level ridge with a surface ridge centered over Ontario/Quebec with the Great Lakes on the southern periphery keeping an easterly feed of air into the region. We're at the tail end of a split flow pattern with a strong southern stream across the southern states and the northern stream well to our north across Canada. This kind of gets washed out by an upper low drifting across the Plains, but we remain ridged locally as the pattern is stalled by the next tropical system lifting up the east coast. So the ridge gets pinched between these systems, keeping the current airmass largely locked into place and holding the upper low over the Midwest and Northern Plains through the weekend.

There is a chance of some patchy fog around once again late tonight into morning as a strong low level inversion sets up. Dewpoints are forecast to be lower than this morning, but a consistent easterly feed of air off the lakes could be enough to saturate the boundary layer creating a few hours of fog. Whatever develops won't last long past sunrise as daytime mixing will tap into dry air aloft scouring it out.

Later in the weekend we'll have a backdoor cold front drop through the region forced by a strengthening 1035mb surface high building south over Hudson Bay. This doesn't look to amount to much in the way of precipitation, but will bring some gustier winds out of the northeast vs the persistent lighter easterly winds ahead of it. The resultant strengthen easterly wind fields will also bring temps down a bit from the upper 70s, to upper 60s to start the new week.

Next chance of precipitation will be Monday night and Tuesday as the stalled upper low to the west drifts a bit eastward and a trough slings up into lower MI. The upper low will follow through mid week keeping temps in the 60s with a fair amount of cloud cover and entry level rain chances.

MARINE...

High pressure will dominate the region heading into the weekend.
First a high over northern New England will hold over the region producing continued light winds and dry conditions. A second large high pressure center building over northern Ontario will push a backdoor cold front through the region result in increasing northeast flow for the second half of the weekend. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots and waves building to near 4 feet will be possible.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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