Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A broad 1030 mb high dominates the regional weather this morning, and this high will shift to the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon.
A few pockets of patchy shallow fog have developed, one closer to Lake Michigan where shallow marine layer influence may be at play and also co-located with slightly better rainfall amounts yesterday morning. Weak easterly flow off eastern Great Lakes has also been conducive for some patchy fog confined mainly to southeast Lower Michigan. Through daybreak, far NE IN/SC Lower Michigan along with areas closer to Lake Michigan should continue to be focal points for better shallow fog development.

Otherwise today, large scale subsidence downstream of mid level ridge axis building into the area will provide continued dry weather. Some mid level warm advection cloudiness is expected to overspread the area this afternoon, but should not have a large impact on high temperatures this afternoon. Little change made to previous forecast with seasonable high temps from mid 50s NW to mid 60s S/SW.

For tonight, upper level ridge axis will shift across Ohio River Valley/eastern Great Lakes which will make the local area more susceptible to several weak embedded short waves in southwest upper flow from the Plains. Backing low level winds will result in northward advection of the low level front that stalled south of the area yesterday. Short term guidance 300K isentropic progs suggest strongest isentropic upglide north of the US 6 corridor tonight with better moisture axis on this surface from the southern Plains through NW IN/SW Lower Michigan. Previous forecast low-mid chance PoPs (20-40%) still appear reasonable.
Given moisture advection is primarily elevated in nature, thunder potential appears quite low with forecast soundings depicting potential of some very weak elevated instability across southern Lower Michigan.

Low level southwest flow will strengthen for Sunday as upper low slowly meanders across northern CA while a stronger lead short wave ejects northeast from north Texas and shears northeast to the southern Great Lakes Sunday night. Good mixing in this broad southwest flow setup and warm front lifting north of the area in the morning will set up windy and unseasonably warm conditions Sunday with highs expected in mid-upper 70s. Rain chances will increase (60-80%) Sunday night as aforementioned southern Plains mid level wave ejects to the northeast. With weak mid level lapse rates likely during this period, thunder potential still appears on the low side and will keep slight chance thunder going. Rainfall amounts with this initial system Sunday night are not expected to have a significant hydro impact, but potential does exist of 0.25"+ rainfall amounts from NW IN/SW Lower Michigan where axis of better low/mid level moisture is expected.

Confidence remains high in an extended period of much above normal temperatures through next work week as longwave pattern remains relatively stable with western CONUS troughing/eastern CONUS ridging. This pattern should be conducive for several storm chances Monday through Wednesday, but rather disjointed nature of evolution of the west coast upper low and its dampening nature as it shifts across central CONUS as it encounters stubborn eastern CONUS mean upper ridging lead to low confidence in day to day details regarding extent of this potential for each individual forecast period. Initial frontal placement and favored mid level short wave track on Monday may be far enough north/northwest to keep shower/storm chances locally low through Monday night. Some indications in guidance that plume of steeper mid level lapse rates should be impinging on western Great Lakes Monday however. Areas along/north of US 6 have been placed in Marginal severe risk Monday, with NW IN into SW Lower MI likely with the greatest risk of isolated strong/severe storms based on expected orientation of instability axis.
Tuesday and Wednesday still appear to feature best chances of storms (some strong/severe potential) with better chances of suppression of synoptic front to the southern Great Lakes.
Wednesday's chances are of a bit lower confidence in comparison to Tuesday but shearing nature of the upper forcing may allow for slow enough evolution of sfc trough to keep convective chances into Wednesday afternoon/evening.

No intrusions of significantly cooler air are expected through the work week, and medium range guidance is in general agreement of next Pacific trough digging across western CONUS Thursday. However, GFS/EC deterministic/ensemble solutions exhibit a large degree of spread in progression of this next upper trough which make timing of additional storm chances post- Thursday of low confidence. It does appear a trend to cooler temperatures is reasonable heading toward the end of this forecast valid period next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

No major changes needed for the 18Z TAFs. Satellite imagery shows some low to mid level stratus building westeward from northwest Ohio across northeast Indiana. KFWA has been reporting high end MVFR to low end VFR ceilings for much of the morning and this should continue as these stratus clouds remain overhead for the afternoon. Additional high clouds are streaming in from Illinois. VFR ceilings are expected through the TAF forecast period, although clouds will build across the entire area this evening. East winds will shift to be southeast tonight ahead of a warm front lifting north. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible overnight into Sunday morning along and north of US 6, including at KSBN. Most of the area remains dry through the day Sunday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.