Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KIWX radar shows rain showers lingering near and south of the US 24 corridor as of 18z, though coverage has lessened over the last several hours in response to diminished low level convergence near a frontal zone. Sfc portion of the front already becoming more active with scattered convection and locally heavy rain for the remainder of the afternoon, luckily focused just south-southeast of the forecast area.

For tonight and Sunday, a mid-level wave over southern IL will dampen/open east-southeast through the southern OH Valley. This will nudge the aforementioned 925-850 mb trough and deep moisture south with drier east-northeast flow settling in for all on the southern fringes of sfc high pressure. Lacking mixing likely allows low clouds to linger through at least midday Sunday in our southeastern zones, with warmer (near normal) high temps on Sunday given slight air mass moderation and insolation.

The warming trend continues into Monday on the western fringe of high pressure. Guidance does hint at a low amplitude shortwave dropping through in west-northwest flow in the afternoon-evening.
Little in the way of precip is expected with this wave as air mass remains rather dry/stable however with the instability axis locked up west near the MS River.

Chances for convection enter the forecast by Tuesday and Wednesday as several shortwaves take aim on the Great Lakes and moisture/instability streams in within increasing low level southwest flow. Model guidance continues to point toward a more substantial shortwave and sfc reflection around the Wednesday and Wednesday night periods for the best opportunity for storms (potentially severe).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 657 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A quiet, dry 24 hours are ahead! Clouds are slowly dissipating across the area from south to north. KSBN is right on the threshold between MVFR and VFR ceilings at 2900 ft currently, while KFWA is solidly locked into IFR ceilings around 1000 ft.
Expect clouds to gradually diminish overnight, with VFR ceilings and few clouds by daybreak Sunday. Wind directions should stay fairly constant out of the east- northeast over the TAF forecast period, with winds tapering off to around 5kts or so after sunset.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.