Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Key Messages:

* Dry and seasonably warm today with less wind

Cold front has pushed south of New Eng and will move further south during today as high pres builds in from the north. Confluent flow aloft and dry air in the column will result in a dry day. Expect a fair amount of high clouds around this morning which will filter the sunshine, then clouds thin with more sunshine this afternoon. Cooler post frontal airmass will settle over New Eng today with highs close to seasonable normals in the mid-upper 70s, possibly near 80 CT valley. Light winds will promote developing sea-breezes which will keep temps a bit cooler along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Key Messages:

* Showers developing later this evening into Sat, with drying from N to S in the afternoon

* Much cooler Sat with temps up to 15 degrees below normal

A mid level shortwave approaches west tonight and moves across New Eng late tonight into Sat. Area of deeper moisture will accompany this shortwave which will lead to scattered showers developing and lifting north across SNE later this evening and overnight.

Low pres tracks east off the mid Atlc coast Sat with low level moist easterly flow developing late tonight into Sat. Modest forcing along the northern edge of higher PWATs should bring an expanding area of showers to SNE, especially south of the MA Pike during the morning.
Still some uncertainty with the northern extent of more widespread showers and this could still end up further south leading to less rain. Even if more widespread showers make it into the region, stronger shortwave moving into the Maritimes Sat will result in WNW flow aloft and drier air gradually pushing south across SNE during the afternoon. So we do expect a drying trend from north to south during the afternoon.

Easterly flow and pocket of chilly 925 mb temps falling to 9-10C will lead to an unseasonably cool day with highs 60-65 and possibly falling into the upper 50s from central to E-NE MA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

* Dry and cool Sunday

* Warming trend starts Monday, becoming hot and humid by Thursday and Friday

High pressure moves out over the Gulf of Maine on Sunday, keeping SNE under light NE onshore flow. This will keep the cool weather around, but it will be less damp than Saturday, as mid-level dry air should prevent light drizzle from falling. High temps will struggle to the top 70, likely staying in the low 60s near the Coasts. High pressure moves well offshore on Monday, allowing the surface flow to turn more southerly. Temperatures will slowly recover this week, starting in the low 70s on Monday, then mid to upper 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front moves through late Wednesday, bringing more summer-like heat to Thursday and Friday with temps in the mid- 80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s. As for precipitation chances next week, the zonal flow aloft will send multiple ripples of shortwave energy toward the region, bringing near-daily chances for isolated showers. A stronger shortwave exits the Great Lakes late next week, which could bring increased chances for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through tonight...High confidence.

VFR, but lowering cigs tonight with areas of MVFR and scattered showers developing mainly after 06z. Light winds with sea- breezes developing today.

Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Cigs lowering to MVFR with scattered showers, especially in the morning. Gradually drying out from N to S during the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea-breeze developing 14-15z

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...

E-SE winds developing this afternoon and persisting into Saturday.
Speeds below 20 kt and seas below SCA thresholds. Scattered showers developing tonight with more widespread showers possible Sat over south coastal waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.