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LEZ149 Expires:202310050215;;496967 Fzus51 Kcle 041941 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 pm edt Wed oct 4 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-050215- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 341 pm edt Wed oct 4 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 68 degrees, off cleveland 69 degrees, and off erie 69 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 050207 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1007 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and move across the region tomorrow. Another cold front will move east Thursday night into Friday. A trough will linger over the area into the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
9:30 PM Update...

Temperatures are holding in the upper 60s to mid 70s at this hour due to strong warm air advection ahead of the cold front slowly approaching from the western Great Lakes and increasing high and mid level clouds. Lows tonight will struggle to fall below the low to mid 60s. The best chance for upper 50s will be in rural areas. No changes needed to the current forecast.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening. High level clouds will continue to stream in ahead of the cold front/pre-frontal trough moving into the western Great Lakes. This combined with strong warm air advection will cause temps to be slow to fall this evening, with upper 60s to near 70 still likely by Midnight.

Original Discussion...

The big weather story with this forecast period is that the recent summer warmth and near record breaking temperatures will come to an end thanks to a couple cold fronts on the way. We managed to reach back into the lower to upper 80s this afternoon. High and mid level clouds are increasing from the west ahead of the first or two cold fronts that will be passing through over the next 48 hours.

A large and deep upper level trough is developing across the north central CONUS and Upper Midwest tonight into tomorrow. We will remain dry through Thursday morning and will have one more unseasonably warm day tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front. High temperatures will top out back into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Eventually scattered rain showers will start moving into northwest Ohio by the early to mid afternoon hours.
There will be weak instablilty and thermodynamics in the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. There may be some weak convection or a few general thunderstorms that could develop along the front late tomorrow.
We do not anticipate any organized or severe storms with this system. The front will slowly move from west to east across the area Thursday evening and night with some much needed widespread rainfall.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The slow moving cold front will continue its eastward track Friday, likely reaching east of the forecast area by Friday evening. Rain showers along the cold front will gradually transition into lake effect rain showers as winds behind the front shift and become northwesterly by early Saturday morning. Anticipate for lake effect showers and unsettled weather to persist into the long term period as the upper trough persists over the Great Lakes region. Rain showers will be accompanied by fairly breezy conditions Friday evening through Saturday night with northwesterly wind gusts 25 to 30 mph.

High temperatures on Friday will rise into to the upper 60s to low 70s prior to the broad cold air advection as the upper low moves overhead. Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday night will drop into the low to mid 40s. Strong winds and overcast conditions should prohibit any frost development this weekend. Much cooler highs by Saturday as temperatures rise into the mid 50s, nearly 10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper low will continue to rotate around the Great Lakes region into early next week. Lake effect rain showers will likely persist given continued broad northwesterly flow and lingering low/mid level moisture. Drier low levels and westerly mean layer flow on Monday take over as the upper low exits to the east.
This will allow for lake effect showers to gradually dissipate by the middle of next week.

Highs in the long term will range between the mid 50s to mid 60s with lows settling in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Reduced wind speeds and less cloud cover by Monday and Tuesday night may lead to areas of patchy frost to develop.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
VFR will continue through late Thursday afternoon, although cigs will be gradually lowering. An approaching cold front will bring a line of showers into NW Ohio by early evening. These showers will reach TOL and FDY around 21Z with flight conditions gradually falling to MVFR and IFR. It will take until 23-01Z for the showers to reach MFD and CLE, but these sites will eventually fall to MVFR/IFR too shortly after the showers arrive. Farther east, CAK, YNG, and ERI will stay dry and VFR through the end of the TAF period before the showers move in Thursday night.

S winds of 5-10 knots tonight and Thursday morning will become SW Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday night into early Friday. Non-VFR likely Friday through Monday in occasional rain showers and/or lower ceilings, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA.

MARINE
Southerly flow less than 10 knots this evening gradually increases to 10 and 15 knots tonight through Thursday ahead of a cold front. The front will swing west to east across the lake on Friday. Behind the front, winds shift and become westerly at 15 to 20 knots by Friday afternoon. Anticipate westerly to northwesterly flow between 15 and 25 knots to persist over the lake Saturday through Sunday night. Onshore flow will allow for waves to build to 3-6 feet across nearshore zones into the start of next week. Anticipate a small craft advisory needed through the weekend and possibly carrying into the start of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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