Avonia, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avonia, PA

May 27, 2024 9:35 AM EDT (13:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM
Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202405271415;;952543 Fzus51 Kcle 270814 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 414 am edt Mon may 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-271415- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 414 am edt Mon may 27 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Tuesday evening - .

Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Tonight - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.

Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.

Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avonia, PA
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 271046 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 646 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure centered over Lake Michigan will continue to move northeast today, moving a cold front east across the area.
Additional weak cold front will move east tonight and Tuesday night before high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 AM Update...
Showers are currently making their way across the area, but no thunder has been reported this morning as instability remains very low. Not expecting much thunder to develop this morning ahead of the cold front, but cannot rule out a rumble or two.
Overall, no changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
This morning, a low pressure system centered near Lake Michigan has left the entire area in the warm sector with storms continuing to develop to the south-southwest of the area. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually move northeast through this morning as the associated cold front pushes east. There severe threat this morning is fairly minimal with little mesoscale support available to sustain any convection. With that being said, models suggest 800- 1000 J/kg of DCAPE over the area which will aid in winds mixing down to the surface even in simple rain showers. Gusty winds will remain the primary threat with localized gusts of 30-35 mph possible in the strongest storms with heavy rainfall, but overall impact continues to look minimal.

Starting mid morning, showers should begin to taper from west to east as the aforementioned cold front moves east, allowing for a primarily dry Memorial Day for much of the area except far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania where shower potential will linger into the evening. In addition, synoptic winds are expected to ramp up with the cold frontal passage with westerly sustained winds of 15- 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. After sunset, winds will calm to 5-10 mph and persist through the night. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, except along the I75 corridor where highs will only climb into the mid to upper 60s due to the cold front moving east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

On Tuesday, the aforementioned low will be centered over Quebec and extend another, although weak, cold front southwest across the area.
This boundary couple with the associated upper level shortwave that will move east across the area, will result in an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area. With the generally weak set-up, not expecting severe weather Tuesday, but cannot rule out locally heavy rainfall with the strongest showers/storms. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the low 70s along the I75 corridor, but linger in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft will push a series of shortwaves and troughs across the area Tuesday night through the daytime hours Wednesday. Scattered showers (possibly lake-enhanced as 850mb temps drop to 5-7C) are likely during this time and can't rule out a few thunderstorms during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. Although upper troughing will persist across eastern zones into Thursday, surface high pressure building in from the north/northwest will push a surge of dry air into the area Wednesday evening. Dry weather should return no later than Wednesday night and persist through the remainder of the short term period.

Cold air advection due to northwest flow will provide slightly below normal temperatures through Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s areawide Wednesday with mid 60s to low 70s anticipated by Thursday.
The cooler temperatures will be a bit more noticeable overnight; Tuesday night's lows will be in the low to mid 50s, but temps Wednesday and Thursday night will likely drop into the low to mid 40s with lower 50s more likely along the lakeshore.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will remain in place through the majority of the long term period as a ridge builds east over the Midwest.
Shower/thunderstorm chances may return as early as Sunday or Monday as southwesterly flow returns in response to the high shifting east and the ridge axis pushes east of the CWA or the ridge flattens out.
Some long range guidance is hinting at a shortwave crossing the area at some point late this weekend or early next week, but still far too much uncertainty to have PoPs greater than slight chance to low- end chance (~20-30%).

The high will allow temps to gradually moderate throughout the period and temps will likely be above normal due to warm air advection Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s Friday, but anticipate highs in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
A cold front extending south near the OH/IN border will continue to gradually move east today. Ahead of this boundary, showers continue to move across the area, but with limited instability there has not been any thunder reported. These showers will gradually diminish from west to east late this morning into the early afternoon hours, but diminished ceilings may stick around for a bit. Currently, a mix bag of VFR to IFR ceilings are being observed across the area with widespread MVFR reported upstream.
With these observations and model guidance suggesting at least MVFR into the early afternoon hours, opted to keep conditions at least MVFR before improving to low end VFR this afternoon/evening. Confidence in timing of this transition is low, but generally had it occur between 18-22Z. VFR conditions will again diminish tonight as another frontal boundary approaches the area.

In addition to diminished ceilings, winds will become quite gusty along and behind the cold front with winds shifting to become westerly. Along and west of I-77 this afternoon, winds will increase to 13-17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible.
Across the eastern terminals, sustained winds will reach between 10-13 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. After sunset, westerly winds will weaken to 5-10 knots, except at KERI where they will remain elevated closer to 12-15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non- VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Low pressure will lift across Lake Huron today and into southern Quebec by this evening, sweeping a cold front east across Lake Erie throughout the day today. Winds and waves have trended higher and expect southwest winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid to late morning before increasing to 20 to 30 knots and becoming westerly behind the front this afternoon into this evening. Winds should gradually diminish to 20 to 25 knots, but expect winds to around 20 knots through Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect starting late this morning into Tuesday afternoon/early evening. The strong west/southwest flow will likely cause water levels in the western basin to below the critical mark of 19 inches above low water datum for a few hours this afternoon into this evening and a Low Water Advisory has been issued from 18Z/2 PM until 03Z/11 PM today.

Northwest winds will gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday before winds once again increase to 15 to 20 knots primarily in the central basin so another (albeit brief) round of headlines will likely be needed until winds diminish to 15 knots or less Wednesday night. Similar flow will continue through Friday morning before winds become a bit lighter and more variable by Friday afternoon.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009-010.
Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday evening for OHZ011-012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
Low Water Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WCRP1 0 mi35 min SSE 8.9G17 67°F
EREP1 10 mi47 min SSE 8G14
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 18 mi35 min SSE 7G11
NREP1 27 mi65 min S 18G23 66°F
ASBO1 32 mi35 min SSW 11G15
45208 33 mi35 min SW 12G18 66°F 61°F1 ft29.4863°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 42 mi65 min S 7G12


Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KERI ERIE INTL/TOM RIDGE FIELD,PA 4 sm44 minSSE 12G2610 smMostly Cloudy66°F63°F88%29.52
Link to 5 minute data for KERI


Wind History from ERI
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