Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood, NY
July 3, 2024 1:48 AM EDT (05:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM Moonset 6:24 PM |
LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 125 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
This afternoon - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 030450 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
After two spectacular days of weather...it will become uncomfortably sultry on Wednesday with most sites across the lake plains reaching close to 90
Meanwhile
our stretch of rain free weather will come to an end later this afternoon and evening when a weak cold front will generate some showers and drenching thunderstorms.
While most areas will then be rainfree for the Fourth of July...
there will be only minimal relief from the heat and humidity.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
While generally fair dry weather will be in place for most areas overnight...it will be cloudy and notably warmer than recent nights with daybreak temperatures averaging some 10 to 15 degrees higher than recent nights. The passage of a warm front will not only support a wealth of alto- cu cloud cover...but could also allow for some sprinkles. A ton of dry air between 5-10kft though should enable most of the pcpn to evaporate before reaching the ground.
Wednesday is then GUARANTEED to be very warm and moderately humid, as a deepening southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. This will prompt Tds to return to the mid and upper 60s, while PWAT values will surge to around 2 inches. As is most often the case during the summer, the approaching cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal sfc trough. This will help to initiate some thunderstorms over the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes during the afternoon, then more widespread convection can be expected late in the day into the evening with the cold front.
Forecast bulk shear of 40kts or so will increase the risk for organized convection that could produce gusty winds, particularly over southern areas. SPC highlights the most favored area for severe weather to be well to our southwest, in the vcnty of the Ohio valley.
Temperatures on Wednesday will top out between the 85F to 90F range, with the higher end of that range expected for the lake plains where heat index values will approach the mid 90s.
Wednesday night, showers and storms will dwindle as the cold front settles south of the Lower Lakes overnight. Otherwise, not overly cool behind this front with lows generally found in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Weak cold frontal boundary will continue to press southeast through the region Thursday. A few showers or a thunderstorm will be possible closer to the New York/Pennsylvania state line, especially if the front slows down and does not clear the area by afternoon.
Otherwise drier air advecting in behind the front will keep the remainder of the area dry. Not much of a push of cooler air behind the front, so temperatures Thursday still will be warm with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels should slowly drop off through the day.
Dry conditions should continue Thursday night with the boundary to our south, although the boundary will start to makes its way northward as a warm front with at least some small risk for some convection working back into the Southern Tier late Thursday night.
Warm frontal boundary will continue to make its way northward through the region Friday with temperatures following suit with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with the warmest heat index values approaching 90F. With the very warm and humid air mass in place, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly across western New York.
A better convective signal exists for the Friday night period, anchored by the arrival of organized forced ascent associated with a mid level wave shortwave tracking eastward from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The low pressure system that brought widespread showers Friday night will become vertically stacked across the upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning, causing it to weaken as it tracks northeast into Quebec. The system's cold front will be in the process of marching east through western NY Saturday morning, with a mid/upper level dry slot following in its immediate wake. While showers and possibly a few thunderstorms should be ongoing Saturday morning across the North Country Saturday ahead of the front, confidence is lower in whether or not the dry slot will extend far enough north to bring a period of drier weather to our eastern zones by the afternoon. Have therefore undercut NBM PoPs by a small amount across WNY in the morning to better indicate the expected dry interlude, before additional synoptic moisture out ahead of the main trough axis combines with diurnal heating in the afternoon to increase shower/thunderstorm chances. While temperatures Saturday will likely depend on the exact timing of the front in the morning, highs are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s, warmest across the Finger Lakes region and in the Genesee Valley.
The mid-level trough axis and moisture starved secondary cold front will swing through the region Saturday night. An area of high pressure subsidence building in its wake will lead to sharply decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from west to east overnight, with just a low-end chance lingering across the North Country by Sunday morning. Lows Saturday night will range in the 60s with lower overall humidity.
Surface high pressure centered to our south along with a flattening mid-level ridge moving through the Great Lakes will then crest over our region through Sunday night, ensuring fair dry weather to cap off the weekend. Highs Sunday will be comfortable in the 70s to low 80s, with lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s.
Unsettled weather returns for the work week as weak high pressure is gradually replaced by yet another broad, weakening trough across the Great Lakes. While Monday is expected to be mainly dry as the eastern Great Lakes looks to be sandwiched between areas of deeper moisture to our west and along the East Coast, some diurnal shower activity can't be completely ruled out. The next large scale system will come sometime Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves out of the Ohio Valley, partially phasing with the longwave trough over the Great Lakes as it moves into the forecast area.
Could see PoPs being raised into lkly territory for parts of the area with subsequent updates as timing discrepancies are better refined, but at this range will stick to Chc. Otherwise, the position of the high to the east should give temps a solid boost Monday back into the mid and upper 80s across the Lake Plains, cooling off again slightly for Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place overnight...although a passing warm front will support a wealth of alto-cu. Sfc winds will be light.
VFR conditions will continue Wednesday morning before a weak cold front will cross the area late in the afternoon and first part of Wednesday night. This frontal passage will support some showers and thunderstorms. Cigs in the wake of the front will drop to MVFR for many areas late Wednesday night...mainly south and east of a line from Buffalo to Rochester.
Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier.
Friday and Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR
MARINE
A warm front will work across the lakes overnight. Winds will pickup late out of the south pushing higher wave action off shore as we move into Wednesday.
A cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the cold front. While fair weather will remain in place through at least midday, there will be an increasing risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
In the wake of the cold front, fair weather will return to the region later Wednesday night with subsiding southwest breezes.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July, gentle to moderate winds will be in place throughout the region. These winds will be from the southwest on Lake Erie and primarily from the west on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
After two spectacular days of weather...it will become uncomfortably sultry on Wednesday with most sites across the lake plains reaching close to 90
Meanwhile
our stretch of rain free weather will come to an end later this afternoon and evening when a weak cold front will generate some showers and drenching thunderstorms.
While most areas will then be rainfree for the Fourth of July...
there will be only minimal relief from the heat and humidity.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
While generally fair dry weather will be in place for most areas overnight...it will be cloudy and notably warmer than recent nights with daybreak temperatures averaging some 10 to 15 degrees higher than recent nights. The passage of a warm front will not only support a wealth of alto- cu cloud cover...but could also allow for some sprinkles. A ton of dry air between 5-10kft though should enable most of the pcpn to evaporate before reaching the ground.
Wednesday is then GUARANTEED to be very warm and moderately humid, as a deepening southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. This will prompt Tds to return to the mid and upper 60s, while PWAT values will surge to around 2 inches. As is most often the case during the summer, the approaching cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal sfc trough. This will help to initiate some thunderstorms over the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes during the afternoon, then more widespread convection can be expected late in the day into the evening with the cold front.
Forecast bulk shear of 40kts or so will increase the risk for organized convection that could produce gusty winds, particularly over southern areas. SPC highlights the most favored area for severe weather to be well to our southwest, in the vcnty of the Ohio valley.
Temperatures on Wednesday will top out between the 85F to 90F range, with the higher end of that range expected for the lake plains where heat index values will approach the mid 90s.
Wednesday night, showers and storms will dwindle as the cold front settles south of the Lower Lakes overnight. Otherwise, not overly cool behind this front with lows generally found in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Weak cold frontal boundary will continue to press southeast through the region Thursday. A few showers or a thunderstorm will be possible closer to the New York/Pennsylvania state line, especially if the front slows down and does not clear the area by afternoon.
Otherwise drier air advecting in behind the front will keep the remainder of the area dry. Not much of a push of cooler air behind the front, so temperatures Thursday still will be warm with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels should slowly drop off through the day.
Dry conditions should continue Thursday night with the boundary to our south, although the boundary will start to makes its way northward as a warm front with at least some small risk for some convection working back into the Southern Tier late Thursday night.
Warm frontal boundary will continue to make its way northward through the region Friday with temperatures following suit with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with the warmest heat index values approaching 90F. With the very warm and humid air mass in place, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly across western New York.
A better convective signal exists for the Friday night period, anchored by the arrival of organized forced ascent associated with a mid level wave shortwave tracking eastward from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The low pressure system that brought widespread showers Friday night will become vertically stacked across the upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning, causing it to weaken as it tracks northeast into Quebec. The system's cold front will be in the process of marching east through western NY Saturday morning, with a mid/upper level dry slot following in its immediate wake. While showers and possibly a few thunderstorms should be ongoing Saturday morning across the North Country Saturday ahead of the front, confidence is lower in whether or not the dry slot will extend far enough north to bring a period of drier weather to our eastern zones by the afternoon. Have therefore undercut NBM PoPs by a small amount across WNY in the morning to better indicate the expected dry interlude, before additional synoptic moisture out ahead of the main trough axis combines with diurnal heating in the afternoon to increase shower/thunderstorm chances. While temperatures Saturday will likely depend on the exact timing of the front in the morning, highs are expected to generally range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s, warmest across the Finger Lakes region and in the Genesee Valley.
The mid-level trough axis and moisture starved secondary cold front will swing through the region Saturday night. An area of high pressure subsidence building in its wake will lead to sharply decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms from west to east overnight, with just a low-end chance lingering across the North Country by Sunday morning. Lows Saturday night will range in the 60s with lower overall humidity.
Surface high pressure centered to our south along with a flattening mid-level ridge moving through the Great Lakes will then crest over our region through Sunday night, ensuring fair dry weather to cap off the weekend. Highs Sunday will be comfortable in the 70s to low 80s, with lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s.
Unsettled weather returns for the work week as weak high pressure is gradually replaced by yet another broad, weakening trough across the Great Lakes. While Monday is expected to be mainly dry as the eastern Great Lakes looks to be sandwiched between areas of deeper moisture to our west and along the East Coast, some diurnal shower activity can't be completely ruled out. The next large scale system will come sometime Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves out of the Ohio Valley, partially phasing with the longwave trough over the Great Lakes as it moves into the forecast area.
Could see PoPs being raised into lkly territory for parts of the area with subsequent updates as timing discrepancies are better refined, but at this range will stick to Chc. Otherwise, the position of the high to the east should give temps a solid boost Monday back into the mid and upper 80s across the Lake Plains, cooling off again slightly for Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place overnight...although a passing warm front will support a wealth of alto-cu. Sfc winds will be light.
VFR conditions will continue Wednesday morning before a weak cold front will cross the area late in the afternoon and first part of Wednesday night. This frontal passage will support some showers and thunderstorms. Cigs in the wake of the front will drop to MVFR for many areas late Wednesday night...mainly south and east of a line from Buffalo to Rochester.
Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier.
Friday and Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR
MARINE
A warm front will work across the lakes overnight. Winds will pickup late out of the south pushing higher wave action off shore as we move into Wednesday.
A cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the cold front. While fair weather will remain in place through at least midday, there will be an increasing risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
In the wake of the cold front, fair weather will return to the region later Wednesday night with subsiding southwest breezes.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July, gentle to moderate winds will be in place throughout the region. These winds will be from the southwest on Lake Erie and primarily from the west on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
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Wind History graph: DKK
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
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