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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1034 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
This afternoon - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely late. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 231524 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1124 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure that supplied us with beautiful weather on Monday will drift off the East Coast this afternoon. A strengthening southerly flow in its wake will now transport milder air and increased moisture into our region. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the afternoon ahead of a slow moving frontal system approaching from the upper Great Lakes that promises to generate a quarter to a half inch of rain for us tonight into Wednesday morning with chilly temperatures on Wednesday. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair dry weather Thursday and Friday, before chances for showers return this weekend. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday, followed by day-to-day warming with readings soaring to well above normal levels by the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Our short stint of fair dry weather is about to come to an end, as the area of high pressure that supported a nice day on Monday is now drifting off the East Coast. While most of the region will be able to enjoy some sunshine through increasing high clouds through midday, a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a wavy frontal boundary will encourage clouds to lower and thicken during the afternoon. Unfortunately, there will be enough lift provided by a coupled H25 jet and surface convergence in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough to encourage some showers to develop over the western counties by mid to late afternoon.

Along with the increased cloud cover and eventual resulting precipitation today, a 45kt low level jet within the warm advective pattern will at least partially mix to the surface. This will allow surface winds to gust to at least 30 mph across the region, with gusts as high as 45 to 50 mph possible for parts of the Niagara Frontier. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Niagara and northern Erie counties where the threat is greatest.

Its not all bad news for todays weather though, as moderately strong warm advection will prompt temperatures to climb well into the 60s for the afternoon. These readings will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees higher than those from Monday.

Tonight, a very robust mid level shortwave and attendant storm system will gradually cross the Lower Great Lakes. While the main surface low will remain relatively weak and somewhat disorganized, moderately strong lift provided by the aforementioned coupled jet, and moreso by 100dm hgt falls and surface convergence ahead of a wavy surface front will lead to widespread rain over the forecast area. The precipitation which should be more showery in nature early on, will transition into a 3-5 hr period of steady rain to the tune of a quarter to one half inch (basin avg). Localized higher amounts will be possible as PWAT values approaching one inch should support embedded areas of moderately heavy rain at times.

While colder air will seep southwards into our region on the immediate backside of the wavy front towards daybreak, the cold advection is not as robust as earlier projected. Will thus slow any transition to wet snow showers until after sunrise.

The wavy frontal boundary will push off to our east Wednesday morning. While notably drier air will quickly overspread our forecast area in the process, some leftover light rain should be expected up until about midday. This will especially be the case for the Eastern Lake Ontario region where a quarter inch of rain will be possible. Some of this leftover precipitation will become mixed with wet snow as a shallow and short lived DGZ should become established.

As we work our way through Wednesday afternoon, skies should yield at least partial sunshine with the sunniest skies opening near and east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures should reach their peak at some point in the morning before remaining steady or slowly falling during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Sprawling Canadian high pressure will settle directly across our area Wednesday night and Thursday...before slowly drifting east and off the New England coast later Thursday night and Friday. We can therefore expect tranquil and dry weather to dominate our region throughout this period...along with mainly clear/mostly sunny skies.

The coldest temperatures of the period will come Wednesday night as the core of the high settles directly overhead and provides ideal conditions for strong radiational cooling. This will allow temps to tumble into the mid to upper 20s across the lake plains...the lower 20s across the interior Southern Tier...and even to around 20 east of Lake Ontario (the current forecast min temp of 20F for Watertown is just a couple degrees shy of the record low for 4/25...which is 18 degrees set in 1972). Strong late April diurnal influences will then begin to modify our chilly airmass on Thursday...allowing highs to mostly recover into the upper 40s to mid 50s...though a developing onshore flow off Lake Ontario will help to keep areas along the south shore of that lake confined to the mid 40s.

Another rather chilly (though not quite as cold) night will then follow Thursday night as the high begins to slide off to our east...with mins ranging from the mid 20s across the North Country to the lower 30s across the lake plains of far western New York...where a the beginnings of a southeasterly return flow will develop as the night progresses. As the high drifts further east of our region on Friday...the SSE return flow will strengthen and spread milder air back across our region...allowing highs to bounce back to around 60 east of Lake Ontario and to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere...with the warmest readings found in areas of favored downslope flow along the Lake Erie shoreline.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Friday night and Saturday an initial weakening cutter-type system will lift northeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. A warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this low will approach from the west Friday night before partially crossing our region during Saturday...while tending to weaken over time as it pushes further out ahead of its also-weakening parent low. Current model consensus continues to suggest an associated band of showers approaching/crossing far western New York late Friday night/Saturday morning...with this activity then at least somewhat weakening/ diminishing in coverage as it pushes further east Saturday afternoon. With this in mind will continue to carry a period of likely PoPs across far western New York Saturday morning...before dropping these back to the chance range as the afternoon progresses.
Otherwise...broad warm air advection across our region will result in a continued upward arc in temperatures...with lows in the lower 40s east to around 50 west Friday night followed by widespread highs in the 60s Saturday. Should the showers diminish across far WNY as currently thought during Saturday afternoon...850 mb temps of +9 to +10C and a stiffening southerly downslope flow could easily support highs breaking into the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the Niagara Frontier...even in spite of what should still be fairly cloudy skies.

Saturday night and Sunday the initial surface low will continue to weaken as it pushes northeastward across Quebec Province...with its trailing cold frontal boundary now looking increasingly likely to stall out well to our north as a second and stronger cutter-type low develops across the Upper Mississippi Valley...and upper-level ridging noses northward across New York State. With daytime heating on Sunday...cannot rule out some additional scattered showers/a few thunderstorms as our region becomes more firmly embedded within the warm airmass on the east side of these two systems...however with the main surface boundary remaining to our north areal coverage should be lower than on Saturday...with drier weather tending to be more predominant
The much bigger story will be temperatures
as 850 temps will surge to between +11C and +13C and support late spring to early summerlike warmth across our region. Expect temps to range through the 50s Saturday night...then climb well into the 70s south of Lake Ontario on Sunday...with a few of our normal warm spots in the Genesee Valley likely even breaking the 80 degree mark.
This being said it will be a bit cooler east of Lake Ontario...as well as immediately downwind of Lake Erie owing to a southwesterly breeze off that lake.

Sunday night and Monday the second and stronger cutter low will make its way across the Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario Province...
with this next system eventually pivoting its trailing cold front toward our area during Monday. Consequently generally dry weather should prevail Sunday night...with the approaching front then bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm potential on Monday.
Otherwise we can expect late spring to early summertime warmth to continue...with lows of 55-60 Sunday night followed by fairly widespread highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will remain in place through this afternoon, although surface winds will gradually increase as the day matures. surface wind gusts will reach at least 30 knots for all of the TAF sites today, with gusts as high as 40 knots at KBUF and KIAG.

During the course of this afternoon, VFR level clouds will gradually lower and thicken with showers expected west of the Genesee Valley by late in the afternoon or early evening.

Widespread rain will then move across all of western and northcentral New York tonight, as a slow moving frontal system will make its way through the region. CIGS will lower to MVFR levels during the evening, then to IFR levels for many areas during the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR to IFR CIGS with rain ending early.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

MARINE
Freshening southerly winds will gradually become more southwesterly this afternoon. This would typically favor Small Craft Advisory conditions, but the early season cold dome effect is likely coming into play as model guidance is holding waves down for most areas, however there will still be some decent chop on the waters. The exception today is for the western third of Lake Ontario (W of Hamlin Beach), where a SCA for that area remains in effect. Will continue to monitor Lake Erie as winds slowly veer more southwesterly through the afternoon.

A wavy cold front will then slowly pass through the region tonight.
While winds and waves will briefly subside in the process (especially on Lake Ontario), a notable but short-lived increase in northerly winds can be expected on Wednesday. While the fetch will not be overly favorable for significant wave increases, the combination should be more than enough to generate rough conditions.
Future Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for this period, especially on Lake Ontario.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again this afternoon. Min RHs will fall below 30%. Wind gusts during the midday and afternoon hours will reach 30 to 35 mph. With fine fuels continuing to dry out today, an SPS remains in effect for all but far western NY.

RH values will quickly recover late this afternoon and evening though, as showers will develop ahead of a slow moving cold front. The showers will transition into a widespread rain later this evening and overnight.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

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