Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood, NY
January 12, 2025 8:16 PM EST (01:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:42 AM Sunset 5:08 PM Moonrise 3:35 PM Moonset 7:04 AM |
LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 921 Am Est Sun Jan 12 2025
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Scattered snow showers late this morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers in the morning, then occasional lake effect snow in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night - West winds 20 to 25 knots. Occasional lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LEZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 122059 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 359 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will sweep east across the area Monday, producing a few brief snow showers. More importantly, the cold front will bring in a fresh batch of colder air and set the stage for another round of significant lake effect snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will fall across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario with the highest snowfall rates and greatest impact to travel coming Tuesday.
Winds will become northwest later Tuesday night and Wednesday, with weaker lake effect snow bringing minor accumulations to areas southeast of the lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A few flurries and light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will gradually drift north along the eastern shore of the lake through early evening with nothing more than a spotty coating of accumulation. Otherwise, expect plenty of cloud cover to linger in most areas.
Surface low pressure crossing the upper Great Lakes tonight will move east across the Nickel Belt of Ontario Monday, reaching southern Quebec Monday night. The associated cold front will reach Western NY by early Monday morning, then reach the eastern Lake Ontario region by early to mid afternoon.
The cold front will likely produce a few bands of snow showers with minor accumulations in most areas. The cold front will likely become lake enhanced at the northeast end of Lake Erie early Monday morning, and may produce a quick burst of moderate snow in the Buffalo Metro area right around the time of the morning commute.
This will be transient and brief, but may produce a quick 1-2" of accumulation at an impactful time of morning. Expect a similar scenario across Jefferson County and the Watertown area during the early afternoon Monday.
Following the cold frontal snow, our attention then turns back to the mesoscale as our next lake effect snow event gets underway. Lake induced equilibrium levels are quite shallow initially, on the order of 7K feet over Lake Erie and 8K feet over Lake Ontario Monday afternoon and evening. Inversion heights will begin to rise late Monday night as colder air aloft arrives, with even better parameters on Tuesday.
Off Lake Erie...
Following the lake enhanced cold front in the morning, expect a weak band of lake effect snow to focus over central Erie County over the Buffalo Southtowns from late morning through the evening. Low inversion heights and a relatively dry synoptic scale airmass should keep this band of snow fairly tame, but it may produce several inches of accumulation and some minor impacts.
Monday night, boundary layer flow will veer to closer to due west, carrying lake effect snow farther south into Southern Erie, western Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. Band intensity will likely remain limited most of the night, but it should begin to intensify towards Tuesday morning as inversion heights begin to rise and better moisture starts to arrive. By this time, the band should be across northern/western Chautauqua County and far southern Erie County. Snowfall rates through Monday night should be limited to around 1" per hour within the band.
Off Lake Ontario...
The cold frontal snow showers will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region early to mid afternoon. A band of lake effect snow will then take shape mid to late afternoon from just south of Watertown across the northern Tug Hill region and into northern Lewis County.
Initially, expect snowfall rates of no more than 1" per hour Monday afternoon and evening, given the relatively low inversion heights.
Later Monday night boundary layer flow will veer to due west, carrying the band of lake effect snow south to center on the center of the Tug Hill Plateau. Gradually rising inversion heights and improving moisture over the lake should also allow for intensification overnight, with snowfall rates increasing to 2" per hour.
It will become quite windy Monday, with gusts of 25-35 mph, strongest close to the lakeshores. This will result in some limited blowing and drifting snow, but relatively mild temperatures will keep the snow on the wetter/sticky side much of the day and limit blowing snow potential to some extent.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
The axis of a strong shortwave trough will pivot across the central Great Lake Tuesday, then cross the Lower Lakes late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening
Off both lakes
lake effect snows will be ongoing but 'likely' will be limited somewhat until better moisture begins to arrive across the region by early Tuesday afternoon
Other limiting factors
Bufkit sounding profiles suggest there may be some directional shear within the cloud bearing layer, not to mention equilibrium levels will only be around 5-6K feet Tuesday morning
That said
lake parameter do improve by Tuesday afternoon, the arrival of deep moisture and now a well aligned flow will support rapid intensification of lake snows ahead of the trough.
Off Lake Erie...lake snows will 'likely' be focused across Chautauqua and southern Erie county (Gowanda and Springville)
Tuesday morning. As deeper moisture arrives ahead of the trough, inversion heights will quickly climb north of 10k feet as we head into Tuesday afternoon. While flow will generally be found between 250-260 degrees, there may be some north-south oscillations at times
Given this
the lake band may briefly brush the more nearby Buffalo Southtowns. Overall, confidence of band movement (N-S) is lower, but will be monitored.
As the trough nears and then enters the Lower Lakes Tuesday evening steering flow will quickly veer northwest. This will direct lake snows south into the western Southern Tier for the rest of the night. Also, guidance suggest that upstream connections will forming off Lake Huron (enhancing snowfall) which will continue into the day Wednesday.
Off Lake Ontario...westerly flow (260-270) will direct lake snows inland across far southern Jefferson, NE. Oswego, and the Tug Hill (Lewis Co.) region. Snowfall rates may be a little bit better off Lake Ontario Tuesday morning given the longer fetch of the lake, but will eventually follow a similar trend as moisture increases Tuesday afternoon. As the trough arrives Tuesday evening/night, flow will then turn NW directing lake effect snows (multiple bands)
across Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and N. Cayuga county. Drier air working into the region (diminishing moisture) and shorter fetch off both lakes will begin to limit snowfall accumulations as we work through the day Wednesday for most locations. There may still be a location or two that overachieve, if upstream connections chip in boosting snowfall.
Overall...snowfall totals of 12 to 20 inches will be possible off Lake Erie, with +2 feet east of Lake Ontario.
A transitory mid-level ridge will cross the region Wednesday night and bring increasingly unfavorable lake parameters which will limit or squash remaining lake effect snows off both lakes. Additional accumulations will be light and minor at this point. What is left will begin to shift back north overnight as flow backs to southwest.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An exiting mid-level trough centered across the Northeast will continue to push east making way for the next trough to dive east- southeast across the Great Lakes. This trough will support a surface cold front to slide from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. However ahead of the cold frontal passage, lingering weakened lake effect across the Niagara Frontier Thursday morning will expand in coverage and snow will become more widespread as the cold front sweeps across the area.
The next ridge will build east Friday supporting southwest flow and more importantly some warm air to filter into the region. With the ridge and associated surface high overhead, a few lingering snow showers east of the lakes Friday morning will diminish throughout the day. Additionally, warm air will advect into the region to support daytime highs to warm up into the upper 20s/low 30s across the higher terrain and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
The next trough will dive across the Great Lakes for the weekend and not only welcome back active weather but also usher in the next cold snap. Southwesterly flow and warm air advection Saturday, temperatures will be well above average with highs ranging in the mid to upper 30s. Outside of the temperatures, a pair of surface cold fronts will slide across the region this weekend, supporting a return of mixed precipitation Saturday and all snow Sunday.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A few lake effect flurries and light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will gradually dissipate into the evening with little or no impact on VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue east of the lakes and across higher terrain.
Low pressure will pass by to the north of the area late tonight through Monday night, with an associated cold front crossing the area Monday. The cold front will bring a return to widespread MVFR CIGS late tonight and Monday, and also produce a few snow showers with transient IFR VSBY. Lake effect snow will also begin to develop off the lakes.
Off Lake Erie, expect a band of lake effect snow to initially develop over or near KBUF in the morning with several hours of IFR/LIFR conditions. This band of snow will then settle south of KBUF to areas east of the lake during the afternoon and evening.
Off Lake Ontario, expect lake effect snow showers to develop near KART by early to mid afternoon with a few hours of IFR, then settle south towards the Tug Hill Plateau by late afternoon and early evening.
It will become quite windy Monday, with gusts of 20-30 knots areawide, strongest near and east/northeast of Lake Erie.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Local LIFR in heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes, mainly VFR elsewhere.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday night through Thursday.. MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely, especially east of the lakes.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a small chance of snow showers.
MARINE
Low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes tonight to southern Quebec Monday night, with an associated cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes Monday. SSW winds will begin to increase tonight ahead of the cold front, then become more westerly and increase further on Monday behind the front. This will bring higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario starting Monday and lasting through at least Wednesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-011.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 359 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will sweep east across the area Monday, producing a few brief snow showers. More importantly, the cold front will bring in a fresh batch of colder air and set the stage for another round of significant lake effect snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will fall across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario with the highest snowfall rates and greatest impact to travel coming Tuesday.
Winds will become northwest later Tuesday night and Wednesday, with weaker lake effect snow bringing minor accumulations to areas southeast of the lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A few flurries and light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will gradually drift north along the eastern shore of the lake through early evening with nothing more than a spotty coating of accumulation. Otherwise, expect plenty of cloud cover to linger in most areas.
Surface low pressure crossing the upper Great Lakes tonight will move east across the Nickel Belt of Ontario Monday, reaching southern Quebec Monday night. The associated cold front will reach Western NY by early Monday morning, then reach the eastern Lake Ontario region by early to mid afternoon.
The cold front will likely produce a few bands of snow showers with minor accumulations in most areas. The cold front will likely become lake enhanced at the northeast end of Lake Erie early Monday morning, and may produce a quick burst of moderate snow in the Buffalo Metro area right around the time of the morning commute.
This will be transient and brief, but may produce a quick 1-2" of accumulation at an impactful time of morning. Expect a similar scenario across Jefferson County and the Watertown area during the early afternoon Monday.
Following the cold frontal snow, our attention then turns back to the mesoscale as our next lake effect snow event gets underway. Lake induced equilibrium levels are quite shallow initially, on the order of 7K feet over Lake Erie and 8K feet over Lake Ontario Monday afternoon and evening. Inversion heights will begin to rise late Monday night as colder air aloft arrives, with even better parameters on Tuesday.
Off Lake Erie...
Following the lake enhanced cold front in the morning, expect a weak band of lake effect snow to focus over central Erie County over the Buffalo Southtowns from late morning through the evening. Low inversion heights and a relatively dry synoptic scale airmass should keep this band of snow fairly tame, but it may produce several inches of accumulation and some minor impacts.
Monday night, boundary layer flow will veer to closer to due west, carrying lake effect snow farther south into Southern Erie, western Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. Band intensity will likely remain limited most of the night, but it should begin to intensify towards Tuesday morning as inversion heights begin to rise and better moisture starts to arrive. By this time, the band should be across northern/western Chautauqua County and far southern Erie County. Snowfall rates through Monday night should be limited to around 1" per hour within the band.
Off Lake Ontario...
The cold frontal snow showers will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region early to mid afternoon. A band of lake effect snow will then take shape mid to late afternoon from just south of Watertown across the northern Tug Hill region and into northern Lewis County.
Initially, expect snowfall rates of no more than 1" per hour Monday afternoon and evening, given the relatively low inversion heights.
Later Monday night boundary layer flow will veer to due west, carrying the band of lake effect snow south to center on the center of the Tug Hill Plateau. Gradually rising inversion heights and improving moisture over the lake should also allow for intensification overnight, with snowfall rates increasing to 2" per hour.
It will become quite windy Monday, with gusts of 25-35 mph, strongest close to the lakeshores. This will result in some limited blowing and drifting snow, but relatively mild temperatures will keep the snow on the wetter/sticky side much of the day and limit blowing snow potential to some extent.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
The axis of a strong shortwave trough will pivot across the central Great Lake Tuesday, then cross the Lower Lakes late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening
Off both lakes
lake effect snows will be ongoing but 'likely' will be limited somewhat until better moisture begins to arrive across the region by early Tuesday afternoon
Other limiting factors
Bufkit sounding profiles suggest there may be some directional shear within the cloud bearing layer, not to mention equilibrium levels will only be around 5-6K feet Tuesday morning
That said
lake parameter do improve by Tuesday afternoon, the arrival of deep moisture and now a well aligned flow will support rapid intensification of lake snows ahead of the trough.
Off Lake Erie...lake snows will 'likely' be focused across Chautauqua and southern Erie county (Gowanda and Springville)
Tuesday morning. As deeper moisture arrives ahead of the trough, inversion heights will quickly climb north of 10k feet as we head into Tuesday afternoon. While flow will generally be found between 250-260 degrees, there may be some north-south oscillations at times
Given this
the lake band may briefly brush the more nearby Buffalo Southtowns. Overall, confidence of band movement (N-S) is lower, but will be monitored.
As the trough nears and then enters the Lower Lakes Tuesday evening steering flow will quickly veer northwest. This will direct lake snows south into the western Southern Tier for the rest of the night. Also, guidance suggest that upstream connections will forming off Lake Huron (enhancing snowfall) which will continue into the day Wednesday.
Off Lake Ontario...westerly flow (260-270) will direct lake snows inland across far southern Jefferson, NE. Oswego, and the Tug Hill (Lewis Co.) region. Snowfall rates may be a little bit better off Lake Ontario Tuesday morning given the longer fetch of the lake, but will eventually follow a similar trend as moisture increases Tuesday afternoon. As the trough arrives Tuesday evening/night, flow will then turn NW directing lake effect snows (multiple bands)
across Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and N. Cayuga county. Drier air working into the region (diminishing moisture) and shorter fetch off both lakes will begin to limit snowfall accumulations as we work through the day Wednesday for most locations. There may still be a location or two that overachieve, if upstream connections chip in boosting snowfall.
Overall...snowfall totals of 12 to 20 inches will be possible off Lake Erie, with +2 feet east of Lake Ontario.
A transitory mid-level ridge will cross the region Wednesday night and bring increasingly unfavorable lake parameters which will limit or squash remaining lake effect snows off both lakes. Additional accumulations will be light and minor at this point. What is left will begin to shift back north overnight as flow backs to southwest.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An exiting mid-level trough centered across the Northeast will continue to push east making way for the next trough to dive east- southeast across the Great Lakes. This trough will support a surface cold front to slide from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. However ahead of the cold frontal passage, lingering weakened lake effect across the Niagara Frontier Thursday morning will expand in coverage and snow will become more widespread as the cold front sweeps across the area.
The next ridge will build east Friday supporting southwest flow and more importantly some warm air to filter into the region. With the ridge and associated surface high overhead, a few lingering snow showers east of the lakes Friday morning will diminish throughout the day. Additionally, warm air will advect into the region to support daytime highs to warm up into the upper 20s/low 30s across the higher terrain and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
The next trough will dive across the Great Lakes for the weekend and not only welcome back active weather but also usher in the next cold snap. Southwesterly flow and warm air advection Saturday, temperatures will be well above average with highs ranging in the mid to upper 30s. Outside of the temperatures, a pair of surface cold fronts will slide across the region this weekend, supporting a return of mixed precipitation Saturday and all snow Sunday.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A few lake effect flurries and light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will gradually dissipate into the evening with little or no impact on VSBY. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue east of the lakes and across higher terrain.
Low pressure will pass by to the north of the area late tonight through Monday night, with an associated cold front crossing the area Monday. The cold front will bring a return to widespread MVFR CIGS late tonight and Monday, and also produce a few snow showers with transient IFR VSBY. Lake effect snow will also begin to develop off the lakes.
Off Lake Erie, expect a band of lake effect snow to initially develop over or near KBUF in the morning with several hours of IFR/LIFR conditions. This band of snow will then settle south of KBUF to areas east of the lake during the afternoon and evening.
Off Lake Ontario, expect lake effect snow showers to develop near KART by early to mid afternoon with a few hours of IFR, then settle south towards the Tug Hill Plateau by late afternoon and early evening.
It will become quite windy Monday, with gusts of 20-30 knots areawide, strongest near and east/northeast of Lake Erie.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Local LIFR in heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes, mainly VFR elsewhere.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday night through Thursday.. MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely, especially east of the lakes.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a small chance of snow showers.
MARINE
Low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes tonight to southern Quebec Monday night, with an associated cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes Monday. SSW winds will begin to increase tonight ahead of the cold front, then become more westerly and increase further on Monday behind the front. This will bring higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario starting Monday and lasting through at least Wednesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ010-011.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 27 mi | 76 min | S 7G | 31°F | 29.96 | |||
| NREP1 | 27 mi | 64 min | 29°F | |||||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 43 mi | 46 min | 30°F | 29.89 | ||||
| WCRP1 | 49 mi | 16 min | SSE 14G | 31°F |
Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDKK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDKK
Wind History Graph: DKK
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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