Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Binghamton, NY

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Binghamton, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050727 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 327 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
An upper level low will keep temperatures seasonably cool over much of the week with some isolated showers developing each afternoon.
Hazy skies are likely today and tomorrow as some smoke from the fires in Quebec move through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
325 AM Update...

The near term is looking mostly quiet with an upper level low off to the east. Water vapor imagery shows a front dropping in from the north this morning and that will move through our region late this morning into the early afternoon. Plenty of smoke was sent into the lower atmosphere with the fires in Quebec and that will be moving in behind the front. Decided to add haze and smoke to the weather grids. It is uncertain what depth the smoke is at but at least since there was not any large plumes of smoke in the visible satellite late yesterday afternoon it was assumed much of the smoke is in the lower atmosphere. The steep post frontal lapse rates should mix some smoke to the surface but it is uncertain how much. Did not reduce visibilities at all due to the uncertainty of the smoke staying elevated or not.

Even if the smoke does not mix to the surface, it will still be thick aloft and block incoming solar radiation from reaching the surface so decided to blend in the NBM 10% and then lowered temperatures a couple degrees more for highs. Precipitation chances were also lowered because the new temperatures produced less CAPE in forecast soundings but there will still enough for some isolated showers and may be a thunderstorm or two late this afternoon and tonight.

Tomorrow is more the same with smoke still hanging around. A lower temperature blend was used again. Precip chances were lowered from likely east of I 81 to just a chance. Forecast soundings have long skinny CAPE so any reduction in surface instability from the lower solar energy and the smoke warming the mid level lapse rates, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks less likely.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Our region will be under the influence of a broad upper level low to our east across Atlantic Canada. With our region right on the edge a few spotty showers are possible in the short term with the highest chances east of I-81. However, model trends have been to lower shower coverage over the past few model cycles. Wednesday in particular may end up being a dry day.
After starting out in the 40's and 50's highs should get to around 70 on average.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A broad upper level low looks to continue to spin across eastern New England Wednesday night through Friday. Several disturbances still should provide enough lift and moisture for a few rounds of scattered light showers. QPF continues to look rather light given the continued lack of deep moisture. This upper level low will continue to bring in a more chilly airmass into the region with some 40's for lows and highs only getting into the 60's and 70's.
Overall, the national model blend (NBM) continues to look way too aggressive with shower chances most days given that the vast majority of ensembles and operational models show scattered coverage at best through Friday.

The influence of the upper level low looks to shift further east of the region Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. Given ample sunshine and a somewhat warmer airmass advecting in highs could push 80 in some locations. Our next cold frontal boundary is timed fairly well by ensemble guidance on Sunday with enough lift and moisture for another shot at some showers. Temperatures Sunday will be dependent on the frontal timing.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
150 am update...

TAFs are expected to be VFR through about mid morning then some smoke begins to move in from the north. It is uncertain how much smoke will mix to the surface but decided to put in some MVFR vis for NY tafs as some of the airports in Canada are reporting 3 to 5 mile vis. Odds are the smoke will not be that thick here with more mixing so left vis at 6 miles for much of the afternoon and overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each day, which may lead to brief restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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