Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Williams, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 140546 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1046 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...

Overview:

The general theme for the next several days is a low impact forecast across the area. There will be very isolated chances for a shower or two this afternoon (no thunder) across Klamath and Lake counties, but by far and large these chances are very slim (<20%). In fact, most of the forecast area will remain dry through the next 7 days.
Seasonable temperatures are expected through this stretch with typical diurnal winds in the afternoon. By late next week, an approaching trough could change things across the area with breezy to gusty winds expected and an increase chance for thunderstorms, especially next weekend. While this is beyond the current 7 day forecast, its noteworthy enough to talk about now as we go into this prolonged stretch of dry weather on top of fuels that are already accelerated in their drying process compared to normal years.

Further Details:

The 500mb flow pattern can be summarized as a mostly westerly to southwesterly at times through the next several days. This means we will experience near normal temperatures and dry conditions. Most afternoons will see typical sustained wind speeds around 5 to 15 mph with isolated 20 mph speeds in some of the windier sports. That said, not expecting any wind hazards through at least Wednesday.

For today, mid level water vapor imagery shows dry air moving through the area. This dry air is essentially rounding the base of a weak trough passing over the area within this southwesterly flow aloft. Showers are going to really struggle once that dry air moves into the area. Day cloud phase distinction from GOES satellite does indicate towering cumulus, but no ice glaciation is occuring as vertical growth is struggle under this regime, but we are seeing some returns on radar from what is likely mixed with some virga. As the upper level trough pushes farther east, the dry air will only make matters harder for vertical growth and updrafts. That said, will maintain 2-3 hours of possible showers across northern Klamath and Lake counties. Not expecting these to have enough time to develop into thunderstorms within our forecast area before the dry air moves in.

Temperatures will be very seasonable to slightly below (today) to even slightly above normal on some days. In other words, not seeing any heat risks through early next week. In fact, there may be some isolated spots that dip down near freezing tonight for areas in both far northern Klamath and Lake counties for an hour to maybe two hours before sunrise.

The more notable item may come after this forecast period as a deepening trough could develop over the Pacific and impact the PacNW late next week into next weekend. The concern here is that our fuels have seen an accelerated period of curing with fuels more representative of July. This means any lightning from thunderstorms could become a problem with fire starts. This comes at a time when wind speeds will start to pick up in association with the trough and could be on the breezy side (15-30mph). This will be couple with RH values in the teens to low 20 percent range in the afternoon. Stay tuned as this is beyond the current 7 day forecast, but this trough could be an impactful end to next week.

-Guerrero
Show more