Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erie, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
900 PM EDT Update...
Skies have cleared across most of the area so have decreased cloud cover across portions of northern Ohio and NW PA with this update. As of now, it looks like the best conditions for patchy fog late tonight into Sunday morning will be at inland locations along and east of the I-71 corridor.

Previous Discussion...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough extends from northeast Indiana towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley (AR/MO/IL/KY/TN area). An area of confluence from the central part of this trough into the northeastern quadrant (which is collocated with the surface stationary front) will yield a narrow corridor of shower and thunderstorms into the southern part of our forecast area across central Ohio with a few isolated showers elsewhere.
Coverage is expected to be a lot less than what we saw across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania earlier, though there could be isolated instances minor flooding where any thunderstorms are able to persist, especially given very moist environment and somewhat slow storm motions of around 10-20 knots (depending on exact location).

The stationary front gradually sags south of the forecast area and a drier airmass associated with high pressure builds in from the north. Aside from some isolated showers skirting across the southern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, the rest of the near term period should be precipitation-free. Patchy fog may be possible in some locations tonight and again Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
That front gradually lifts north across the area Monday afternoon into Monday night, with persistent southwest flow advecting increasingly warm, moist air into the region Monday night through Tuesday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible Monday afternoon in our south and east, becoming increasingly more likely by Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most model guidance has Tuesday with relatively benign thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon/evening due to modest instability and rather limited shear. The 12Z NAM randomly has like 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and 40 knots of deep-layer shear, which is a massive outlier compared to most other model guidance. It develops this in response to a compact shortwave trough currently over the Great Plains region, with convective influence causing it to become more intense than would otherwise expect. Currently going to throw out this model due to it being an extreme outlier but could be worth watching in the coming days.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper-level trough approaches from the west as it moves into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is generally when warmth, moisture, and synoptic-scale lift will peak for the most likely precipitation chances of the work week (60-70% PoPs on Wednesday and Wednesday night). Based on current model guidance, there is a good chance for severe weather, with MUCAPE around 1500- 2000 J/kg and 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Current D5 SPC outlook has primary severe weather risk located to our west, though the past few runs of model guidance have a slightly more open trough rather than a closed low, progressing a bit faster (shifting the threat a bit farther east). 00Z GFS ML severe weather probabilities are similar to what SPC has, though 00Z ENS ML has severe weather probabilities maximized farther east over the Ohio Valley, which better matches the trends observed in the broader model data. Either way, Wednesday will be worth watching.

By Thursday, most model guidance have the low and associated upper- level trough into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with the cold front moving through. Any showers and thunderstorms will likely be associated with either the primary cold front or a secondary cold front/trough during the afternoon/evening hours. It's possible there could be a few stronger storms, especially if the slower model guidance is correct, though it seems unlikely as a reversal in trends would be needed. Friday should should quiet as high pressure builds in, and despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures really won't cool down too much.

Saturday onward looks active as persist southwest flows advect warm, moist air to the region. Already have mid to upper 80s in the temperature forecast with our first 90 degree days possible late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Skies have cleared considerably and most locations are VFR with scattered MVFR in lower clouds across southern and southeastern terminals. This trend will likely persist for the first few hours of the TAF period before lower ceilings and patchy fog begin to develop across the majority of the area overnight. Most TAF sites have a shot at MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into early Sunday morning with the highest confidence at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG and lower confidence at KFDY/KCLE. KERI may be a bit challenging early Sunday morning; winds may be a touch too high for lower stratus/fog development, but some guidance places non-VFR conditions right along the lakeshore for a period overnight. Opted for a more optimistic VFR forecast for KERI with a TEMPO for MVFR conditions early Sunday morning; will make changes if confidence increases in either direction. Flight conditions will gradually improve Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with VFR anticipated at nearly all terminals by mid to late afternoon Sunday. Can't rule out a few showers clipping KCAK/KYNG Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence in precip will be highest to the south of all local TAF sites.

Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 5 to 10 knots through the majority of the period with light and variable winds anticipated inland from Lake Erie overnight into early Sunday.
Gusts to 15 to 20 knots are possible during peak diurnal mixing Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog and lower ceilings early Monday morning. Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, best chance Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE
A nearly stationary boundary lingers south of the lakeshore today, allowing for winds to persist from the northeast at 15-20 knots this afternoon. These conditions have allowed for waves along the lakeshore to build to 2-4 feet, with highest waves across the central and western basins. Opting to maintain the Small Craft Advisory through 00Z this evening given that wave heights will continue to reach around 4 feet, but opting to get rid of the Beach Hazard given the wind direction and moderate risk for rip currents.

As a high pressure system nudges south, winds tonight will weaken to 5-10 knots but remain from the northeast. A brief increase in winds up to 15 knots may occur Sunday afternoon, but should be very marginal for any additional headlines needed. By Sunday night, the high pressure again becomes dominant with northeast winds of 5-10 knots. Winds finally shift on Tuesday to gain a more south-southwest direction as a warm front lifts north across the area. As the parent low moves across the region midweek, winds are expected to increase from the southwest to 15-20 knots and will be another period to watch for additional headlines.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.