Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:17PM Sunday January 17, 2021 7:15 AM EST (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202101171515;;046870 Fzus51 Kcle 170908 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 408 Am Est Sun Jan 17 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-171515- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 408 Am Est Sun Jan 17 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers through early afternoon, then snow showers likely late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 35 degrees, off cleveland 37 degrees, and off erie 36 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 171149 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 649 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low pressure system will move east into the area today, moving east of the region tonight into Monday. A series of shortwave troughs will move east southeast across the region Monday through Wednesday before high pressure briefly returns to the area Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. The overall forecast remains on track, with just minor adjustments to temperatures and pops to reflect the latest radar trends. Raised pops to account for the area of light snow currently pushing east across the area.

Original discussion . Another upper level low will swing eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions this afternoon and tonight. West northwest flow will persist over the region on Monday with a shortwave approaching the region late in the day. All in all, an active weather period is expected, with the primary focus being lake effect/lake enhanced snow across the snow belt, more specifically in northwest PA.

Aside from the lake effect/lake enhancement, snow chances will increase through the day as broad mid level frontogenesis increases through the area as the upper low approaches from the west. Widespread snow amounts from one half inch to an inch are expected outside of the snow belt, mainly from mid afternoon through the overnight. Highs today and Monday will again be in the low to mid 30s with lows tonight in the mid/upper 20s.

As far as the lake effect snow goes, a rather robust lake band is clipping far northeast Erie county PA, and an additional band is expected to develop and quickly move northeast up the snow belt later this morning. This could drop an inch or two of snow across the snow belt, and perhaps up to 3 inches by midday in far northeast Erie county PA if the current band holds. The low level flow will back this afternoon ahead of the upper low, with the better lake bands aimed towards western NY during the afternoon hours.

A Lake Michigan connected band will persist across the lake and should mainly affect western NY through this evening, intensifying as a low level trough swings southward across Ontario onto Lake Erie after 06Z. This should enhance the low level convergence with the band and slowly push it southward onshore across the snow belt through morning. This will mainly be a lake enhanced setup, with the thermodynamic parameters rather marginal themselves, with inversion heights peaking around 9kft with modest lakeT-850mb/700mb differentials. This should provide a decent band across the snow belt, capable of dropping 1 to 3 inches overnight through the morning across the snow belt, and perhaps 2 to 4 inches across Erie PA. Have decided to hold off on any headlines at this point (primarily concerned about Erie PA) given a rather short window of impactful snowfall rates early tomorrow morning, and otherwise lighter more persistent accumulations outside of this winds. The bands should lose organization in the wake of the trough through the day Monday, but may organize again heading into Monday night. Total snowfall accumulations, from this morning through Monday afternoon, could be in the 3 to 5 inch range across the snow belt, with 5 to 8 inches possible across Erie county PA, but again this would be a 36 hour snowfall total, with perhaps a good bulk of the snow falling from 06Z to 18Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA Monday night through Tuesday night. At the surface, a lake-aggregate trough lingers over the Great Lakes and vicinity through Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a surface ridge should begin building from the Lower OH Valley as an evolving surface low moves from southern ON toward the Gulf of Maine. Steady to potentially heavy and meandering lake-enhanced/effect snows should impact the primary snowbelt and portions of the secondary snowbelt as the mean low-level flow of cold and rather moist air varies between WSW and WNW. Fresh snow accumulations of several inches are possible. Elsewhere, occasional snow showers may accompany the aforementioned shortwave disturbances. These light snow showers should amount to a dusting at most. Lows should reach the 20's Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs should reach the lower 30's on Tuesday.

High pressure at the surface and aloft moves eastward on Wednesday and provides most of our region with fair weather. Lingering lake effect snows over the snowbelt should shift northward gradually as mean low-level flow backs from WNW toward WSW. Simultaneously, the snow should weaken as lake-induced CAPE wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion and dry air advection in the low-levels. Minor additional snow accumulations are possible. Daytime highs should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's. A shortwave trough approaches from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night, allowing the accompanying surface low to advance east-southeastward from western ON toward central ON. At this point, odds favor fair weather for our region as lows primarily reach the 20's.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue overhead. At the surface, a cold front sweeps east through our region Thursday as the aforementioned low moves southeastward toward New England through Thursday night and is followed by the development of another lake-aggregate trough in the Great Lakes region. At this point, the odds of isolated snow and/or rain showers accompanying Thursday's frontal passage are very low. However, a marginally-cold low-level air mass streaming eastward across and downwind of Lake Erie may allow light lake-enhanced snow showers to impact the primary snowbelt Thursday and Thursday night. Some rain should mix with the snow on Thursday as highs reach the mid 30's to 40 degrees. Lows should reach the 20's Thursday night. The lake-aggregate surface trough on Friday should be followed by a surface ridge building from the west Friday night. Fair weather is expected besides lingering lake-enhanced/effect snow showers generally east and southeast of Lake Erie. Friday's highs should reach the upper 20's to lower 30's, while Friday night's lows should reach the upper teens to mid 20's. Stabilizing high pressure at the surface and aloft should build eastward on Saturday and bring an end to light lake effect snow in the snowbelt. Highs should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. Low clouds will be the norm at the terminals through the period. Most sites will experience low MVFR to IFR for the bulk of the period. Light snow will move through the eastern terminals at the onset of the period. An upper low moves into the region after 18Z, with more widespread light SN expected. After 06Z, lake effect snow will be primarily confined to KERI and to a lesser extent KCLE, with the best chances for IFR conditions. West southwest winds will persist through the period, generally 10 kts or less outside of KERI, where 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts possible at times.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible through Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM this afternoon from Vermilion to Willowick. Farther east, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM EST Monday from Willowick to Ripley, NY. These advisories may be cancelled early if marine conditions permit.

As a trough lingers over the Great Lakes, westerly winds of about 15 to 25 knots this morning should ease to about 10 to 20 knots this afternoon through Monday. Waves as large as 5 to 7 feet this morning should subside to 3 feet or less by the end of today. On Monday, waves should build to about 4 to 5 feet in the central and eastern basins. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Westerly winds of about 15 to 25 knots are forecast Monday night through Tuesday night. Tuesday night is when the aforementioned trough should begin exiting the Great Lakes to the east as a ridge builds from the Ohio Valley. Waves as large as 4 to 8 feet are expected, especially in the central and eastern basins.

The ridge should exit eastward from Lake Erie on Wednesday and be followed by a low moving from northwestern ON toward southwestern QC Wednesday night through Thursday. This pattern should allow westerly to southwesterly winds of about 15 to 25 knots on Lake Erie. Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet are expected in the central and eastern basins, which will probably result in additional Small Craft Advisory conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145- 146.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi58 min W 12 G 15
NREP1 18 mi106 min W 12 G 20 34°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi76 min W 25 G 28 35°F 999.9 hPa (-0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi106 min W 20 G 23

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi25 minWSW 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast35°F29°F78%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS7S6S9S3S10SW96SE4W3SE3SE6SE5SE7SE7SE9
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G19
SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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