Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:12PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 12:16PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201908221415;;021931 Fzus51 Kcle 220740 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 340 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-221415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 340 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers through early afternoon. A slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 78 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221427
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1027 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area this morning. High
pressure will build over the region on Thursday and remain
through the weekend with below average temperatures and drier
weather. Unsettled weather as well as warmer temperatures return
early next week.

Near term through Friday
Rain showers continue to move east across the area this morning
as the cold front sinks south through the area. After this
initial wave of precip moves east of the area around noon,
additional development is still expected this afternoon across
the far southeast periphery of the area, roughly from mt. Vernon
northeast to youngstown. Only minor adjustments to the forecast
with the midday update to capture the latest trends and details.

Original discussion...

today is the transitioning day with the overall mid level and
upper level weather pattern. A cold front has just entered our
near shore waters over the lake and is slowly moving southward
this morning. Scattered light to moderate showers with isolated
thunderstorms have develop ahead of the advancing cold front.

The hrrr and a couple of the high res short term models have
finally caught on to a clearer picture for how things will play
out for the rest of today. This initial batch of showers and
isolated thunder will fizzle out and move off to the east later
this morning. There will be another impulse of mid level energy
moving out of the midwest into ohio by late morning with
additional scattered showers developing.

The cold front will finally reach central ohio by early
afternoon where a couple isolated thunderstorms may try to
redevelop along with scattered showers. No severe weather is
expected. The convection may become a little more organize as it
moves into central and eastern ohio, south of our local area by
late this afternoon. The bigger change will be with the
northerly winds and cooler temperatures moving in from north to
south today. Because of cloud cover and scattered showers
around, temperatures will only reach the low to mid 70s this
afternoon.

The upper level trough further reaches down into the eastern
great lakes tonight and Friday. A surface high pressure system
will also begin building into our local area tonight into
Friday. We will start to see drier air move in which will help
scattered out the clouds late this evening and overnight.

Temperatures away from the lake will fall down into the middle
and upper 50s. Friday looks like a delightful today with
sunshine and a few passing fair weather clouds along with
temperatures in the 70s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Cool high pressure will be building across the region Friday through
the weekend bringing fair weather to the area. Will generate retain
some lake effect clouds Friday night as h8 temps of 7 or 8 degrees
settles across the warm lake. Could even see a few showers early
Saturday, but confidence is low on how much moisture will be around.

A possible land breeze would aid in convergence across the lake.

Fair weather cumulus for the rest of Saturday will fade to mostly
clear skies Saturday night. The northeast flow will generate
marginally high water concerns for the west third of the lakeshore
Saturday Saturday night. Sunday the high begins to shift east and
allows the beginnings of return flow to initiate. After highs in the
low mid 70s Saturday, highs will be a handful of degrees warmer for
Sunday. Both nights will be cool and well into the low mid 50s away
from the lake.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
By this point the high will have shifted to new england and
southerly return flow will be set up across the ohio valley. Precip
chances enter the forecast across the i-75 corridor Monday with a
likely front crossing sometime Tuesday. Therefore, march precip
chances across the area Tuesday lingering some into Wednesday with
continued troughiness aloft. Low 80s low 60s for highs lows early
next week.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
A cold front will be slowly moving through northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania today. Winds will shift to northerly
with the passage of the front later this morning. Rain showers
may impact a few TAF sites near the lakeshore this morning and
have mention -shra and some tempo groups through mid morning for
any possible aviation MVFR impacts. Fdy is the only site that is
dealing with some very low ceilings down to 400 feet. Will carry
a tempo group through 14z for these very low ceilings with big
improvements after 14z. MVFR ceilings will give way toVFR for
all TAF sites by midday or this afternoon. Winds will become
northerly but on the light side around 5 to 8 knots. No aviation
impacts expected this evening, overnight, or Friday morning.

Outlook... NonVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon.

Marine
The cold front early this morning was setting across the south shore
as evidenced by narrow band of convection thunderstorms. The front
will push ashore early this morning with a north-northwest flow of
15 to 20 knots in its wake for a time this morning. There may be a
brief period where winds subside this afternoon, but are expected to
increase again around 15 knots for tonight from the north-northeast.

This will make for choppy conditions on the lake with 3 to an
occasional 4 footer. The winds become northeasterly for
Friday Saturday with 10 to 18 knots common. High pressure north of
the lake for the end of this week will shift east of the eastern
lakes for early next week and therefore the winds on erie will veer
to the southeast by Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Greenawalt griffin
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Griffin
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi45 min N 4.1 G 5.1
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi33 min W 5.1 G 7 70°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi42 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F48°F44%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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1 day ago3N7N7NE5CalmS3E4SE4S6S6W7S5S4S9S6NW8S6S7S5S8S8SW10SW7W10
2 days agoW8NW7W8W6W6W4CalmS3S3CalmCalmS3CalmS4S3S3S3CalmCalmSE3SE9S7S8SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.