Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:52PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:21 PM EST (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 4:33AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202011272115;;478764 Fzus51 Kcle 271442 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 942 Am Est Fri Nov 27 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-272115- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 942 Am Est Fri Nov 27 2020
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 47 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 272039 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 339 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will move through the area overnight, followed by high pressure building over the region for much of the weekend. Attention will then be on two upper level low pressure systems, one in the northern stream near the Dakotas, and a southern stream low near Arizona. These lows are projected to phase into a larger cut off low Sunday and then rapidly deepen as it lifts into the Ohio Valley. This system will track into the lower lakes on Monday, bringing a chance for rain, snow, and gusty winds for the early part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Plenty of clouds and seasonably mild conditions across the area this afternoon. Finally starting to see breaks in the persistent stratus, with scattered clouds away from the northern counties.

Shortwave trough just to our west expected to rotate across the area overnight. Looking upstream there are radar returns but not seeing any ground reports of precip. Expect to see an uptick in clouds with the frontal passage but not looking at any precip for most of the area. However, there will likely be increased instability over the lake from the subtle cooling aloft, resulting in some isol/sct rain showers over the primary snowbelt areas. Temperatures will drop into the 30s overnight, coolest in the west as drier air filters in. The flow off the lake will keep some clouds ongoing in the east into Saturday morning. In the west, some analysis suggests some shallow moisture lingering that could briefly get trapped under an inversion in the morning, which is common this time of year. For now am banking on enough mixing and drier air advecting in to prevent this. Temperatures will reach the mid 40s for much of the area Saturday thanks to some sun returning. High pressure will back winds to the southwest on Saturday night into Sunday. Mostly clear skies Saturday night will drop temps to around freezing. However, sunny skies will start off the day Sunday and with SW winds expect temperatures to warm above normal with highs in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday night will mark the transition from high pressure to a very active weather pattern. A low pressure system originating over the Gulf Coast states is expected to deepen as it tracks northeast along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Aloft, a deep trough is expected to extend the entire eastern CONUS, producing a cut-off low aloft by Monday evening. Southerly winds across the area overnight on Sunday will result in moisture values increasing from south to north. Isentropic upglide ahead of the low pressure will allow for showers to begin to develop overnight Sunday. Due to the magnitude of warm air advection on Sunday, lingering into the early overnight hours, initial precipitation across the area should remain as rain. Low temperatures overnight on Sunday are expected to remain above freezing at the surface with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

On Monday, rain will transition to snowfall across the area from west to east as the cold air mass moves over the area. The exact timing of this transition remains uncertain at this time with it being dependent on the low pressure track. Long range models are becoming more consistent with the overall track, however confidence remains low this far out. The Canadian model suggests a straight path northeast for the center of the low, however the ECMWF and GFS both suggest a retrograding low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Current thoughts remain similar to the previous forecast, with rain showers persisting into Monday afternoon before turning to a mix of rain/snow for the western portion of the area, and eventually all snow overnight Monday. With such a cold air mass moving over the area with this system, once the precipitation changes over to all snow, it will likely remain snow through the end of the event. The transition to rain/snow Monday afternoon will also mark the approximate timing of increased northwesterly winds across the area with 10 to 20 mph sustained winds, gusting to 30 mph west of I71. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s on Monday will likely occur in the morning, steadily falling throughout the day as cold air advection increases over the area. The overnight low on Monday dips down into the mid to upper 20s across the area.

As the system moves northeast of the CWA, a transition from synoptic snowfall to lake effect snow will occur. Monday night into Tuesday, winds will be from the north to northwest, resulting in 850mb temperatures dropping across the area to at least -8 deg C. The is a lot of uncertainty about the exact temperatures across the area Tuesday, with some ensemble models being as cold as -14 deg C. This temperature will need to continue to be monitored as it has the potential to significantly alter the lake effect contributions to QPF. Initial lake effect snowfall will likely occur for portions of the lake effect snowbelt in Ohio, and slowly transition to encompass the entire snowbelt through NW PA as winds shift and become more westerly. High temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the low to mid 30s.

With this being the first widespread, impactful snow event for the area, there is a lot to digest with this system. Much of the area is expected to receive measurable snowfall with this event. Although exact amounts are uncertain this far out, the highest amounts of snowfall related to the synoptic forcing will be west of I71. Models are becoming more consistent to have at least 2 to 4 inches of snowfall across this western portion with 1 to 2 inches east of I71. Total snowfall this far out is extremely difficult to anticipate as many factors will contribute to the snow accumulating. Factors that will continued to be monitored for the synoptic system include: exact track of the center of the low, timing of transition from rain to snow, ground temperatures, and total QPF expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As mentioned in the short term discussion, sometime on Tuesday will mark the transition from synoptically driven snowfall to primarily lake effect snowfall. Westerly winds linger into Wednesday, along modest lake enhanced instability, resulting in chance PoPs for the snowbelt areas in far NE OH and NW PA into the overnight hours on Wednesday. Exact snowfall totals from the lake effect snow showers will be dependent on the 850mb temperature and exact placement of the center of the low, as this will determine the exact wind direction across Lake Erie. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 20s, warming up to the upper 30s on Wednesday.

Long range models are suggestive of the potential for another strong low pressure system to move along a similar track next weekend. Opted to put slight chance of PoPs beginning Friday as timing of this system is uncertain this far out. High temperatures for much of the long term look to be near normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/. Daytime mixing lifting most of the area cloud deck up from MVFR to VFR this afternoon. Can't rule out some MVFR returning with night time cooling, but the approach of the cold front will help finally erode the persistent stratus. Some isolated showers are possible mainly at ERI and possibly YNG with the frontal passage around 8Z for an hour or two. Then drier air moves in supporting VFR conditions for much of Saturday and Saturday night.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely Monday and Tuesday and may continue into Wednesday for the Snowbelt region.

MARINE. A fairly weak cold front will cross Lake Erie overnight, with winds turning to the were turning more NW, but little increase in speed. With high pressure building over the waters this weekend winds will again back out of the SW by Saturday night. A strengthen storm system will track near the western Appalachians and over the lower lakes Monday into Tuesday. This feature will deepen as it approaches the area, increasing the pressure gradient, resulting in gusty conditions with advisory level winds likely. Cold air filtering in behind this feature will support a prolonged advisory level scenario.

The forecast track will greatly influence the winds speed and fetch potential, and currently there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Given some scenarios, an extended northeast wind Monday could develop resulting in high water levels in the western basin. Conditions will need to be monitored for possible lakeshore flooding.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Jamison NEAR TERM . Jamison SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Campbell AVIATION . Jamison MARINE . Campbell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi52 min W 11 G 14
NREP1 18 mi112 min W 5.1 G 9.9 46°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi22 min WSW 17 G 18 46°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.6)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi52 min WSW 7 G 13

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi31 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast46°F37°F73%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W11
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SW6SW5S4S6SW5SW5SW7SW5SW3SW5SW4SW5S6S8SW6SW9SW8W11
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1 day agoS15
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2 days agoSE4SE4SE6SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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