Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday July 29, 2021 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1003 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 78 degrees, off cleveland 75 degrees, and off erie 75 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:202107292015;;644634 FZUS51 KCLE 291403 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1003 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ149-292015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City , PA
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location: 42.12, -80.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 291405 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will move east into Ontario and New York while a cold front settles south across the region toward evening. High pressure will build in behind the low and persist through Saturday. Another cold front will move across the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Convection across the area is moving southeast with a considerable amount of debris clouds from the overnight convection. Robust convection over Lake Erie this morning exhibited some rotation with indication of a tornadic waterspout. With Lake Erie now reaching it summer peak temperature the boundary layer over the lake is particularly unstable.

As for redevelopment of convection for the afternoon, the region is not quite out of the woods so to speak. Effective shear is sufficient to help organize any storm formation and some mid- level dry air is in place to promote downburst formation as the delta theta-e values are in the 25-30 range. Convection allowing models from the 00Z cycle don't produce much redevelopment over the region in the afternoon but some thinning/clearing is taking place over western OH and southern lower MI. Will lower POPS west and north of the exiting convection for the afternoon but not entirely remove them. Have kept the current max temperature forecast as it is for now.

Previous discussion: The biggest change with this update was the slowing of initial onset of precipitation. The line of storms that developed in Wisconsin overnight and tracked to the southeast moved slower than expected, resulting in onset of precipitation for the western counties closer to 12Z. The line of convection approaching from the west has significantly weakened and has also split into two primary areas: one across IN and the other north of Lake Erie. There is a notable gap between clusters, where isolated showers are beginning to develop. Will have to continue to monitor this area as that is the most likely part of the storm to cross northern OH.

Also adjusted temperatures this morning as the increase WAA over the area over performed and temperatures trended 2-4 degrees warmer than previous forecast.

Previous Discussion . A low pressure centered near Lake Michigan has caused much of Wisconsin to see severe weather this evening. This is the system that is being monitored for potential severe weather to move into the CWA this morning. The downfall is that models are not handling the ongoing convection well, making it difficult to determine extent and timing of this system. Overall, the line of convection has slowed and as a result onset of precipitation for the western counties has been delayed to near 9-10Z this morning. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe weather across the area today, with the primary threat remaining wind although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. WPC has also maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today for the entire area.

Digging into the details about this system, there are many factors to consider. Overnight, the systems general path shifted to become more SSE versus the previously forecast SE. This was a result of a very conducive environment over northern Illinois. If this path continues, which right now is expected to, the main system looks to track southwest of the CWA. Initial thoughts were that this would aid in most storms remaining sub- severe. However with instability values are 1000-1500 J/kg along the boundary, an increasing moisture gradient in the same area, and WAA across NW OH, a better environment for the persistence of storms has set up than previously forecast. These values are expected to continue to increase ahead of the cold front as well. This is ultimately providing a better environment for the convection now developing in northern and central Michigan to move into. General arrival time of showers and thunderstorms also looks to coincide with when the arrival of a LLJ of 50-55 knots which will kick in over the western half of the CWA, likely aiding in the persistence of storms. High PWATS of 1.6-1.8 inches will aid in the mixing down of higher winds, resulting in a primary threat of strong winds and heavy rainfall. Confidence is high that the area will receive showers and thunderstorms today, it is just a question of when and how strong they will be.

This forecast update takes into account the current mesoscale factors, coupled with hi-res model output. However there remains ample uncertainty about this system, especially with no model resolving the current weather well. These next couple hours will be key in determining the morning impact it may have on the area. Updates will be issued as needed.

Showers and thunderstorms look to move east of the area by tonight as the cold front moves east of the area. High pressure will build in behind it, resulting in fair weather conditions for much of Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures today will be in the low 80s, although areas with rainfall may be a tad cooler. Highs on Friday will be below normal, only reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s as CAA becomes a dominant influence over northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The Great Lakes region will be a northwest flow aloft this weekend. The pick day of the weekend will be Saturday with unsettled weather returning on Sunday. Temperatures will be below average as well with highs in the 70s this weekend. A shortwave trough will move through the northwest flow on Sunday along with a reinforcing cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return in the forecast on Sunday. Weak high pressure will build back down across the Great Lakes region by Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A large scale upper level trough will be near the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley for early next week. We will continue with the below average temperatures with daytime high temperatures in the 70s. We will also see sunshine with some clouds passing through as well. We should be mainly dry with a slight up tick for rain chances by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. Widespread VFR conditions will persist across the area for much of today, with the exception being in areas of the strongest storms. These showers have produced heavy rainfall, which can reduce visibilites to MVFR and IFR conditions. Upstream observations have stations along the line of convection dropping to MVFR and then quickly returning to VFR as the line departs.

A great deal of uncertainty still exists with this MCS moving across the area this morning. General trends suggest an overall weakening of the system, however a break in the line across MI has now begun to see some convection filling in and moving towards the area. With high PWATs and a strong low level jet expected to kick in this morning, strong winds are the biggest threat during any storm. Have opted to keep wind gusts up to 30-40 knots in tempo groups this morning into the early afternoon to account for this. Outside of convection, winds will be from the southwest at 5-11 knots.

A cold front is expected to move across the area late this morning, which will result in an increase in winds to 10-15 knots from the west, gusting to 20 knots from a line extending KCLE to KCAK and west. Winds will weaken to 5-10 knots from the northwest behind the departing cold front this afternoon, which will also mark the decrease in precipitation chances. Near the end of this TAF period, eastern terminals may see a drop in ceilings to MVFR levels, but the daytime precipitation and frontal progression will determine this so confidence is not high at this time.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Non-VFR is possible again Saturday evening into Sunday in thunderstorms.

MARINE. The winds early this morning will start out light and southerly. Winds are expected to increase to around 15 knots from the southwest by late morning or midday as a meso low pressure skirting by north of the lake today. Winds will become westerly 10 to 15 knots by this afternoon and slowly weaken. We may be close to SCA conditions for a couple hours along the central lakeshore zones but not confident to issue any headlines at this time. A cold front will move across the lake this evening. Winds will increase to around 15 knots from the north or northwest tonight into Friday. Small Craft Advisories will be more likely for the Thursday night into Friday time frame with broader onshore flow. High pressure will move over the lake Friday night with lighter winds. Southwest winds will increase on Saturday 10 to 15 knots. Another cold front will move across the lake on Sunday with a shift of winds back from the north or northwest around 15 knots late on Sunday into Sunday night. Lighter winds will return on Monday with weak high pressure.

Light winds strengthen to 15 to 20 knots and become west to southwest with the passage of a warm front tonight. These winds shift to the northwest and north Thursday after a cold front moves south across the area with winds of 15 to 20 knots lasting through Friday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement will be needed to highlight the threat of high winds and waves during this time period. High pressure builds in Friday through Saturday, reducing winds and eventually shifting to out of the southwest by Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LaPlante NEAR TERM . LaPlante SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Campbell MARINE . Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 17 mi57 min SSW 7 G 9.9
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 35 mi75 min WSW 11 G 22
NREP1 35 mi75 min W 6 G 17
45132 - Port Stanley 48 mi45 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 73°F3 ft1008.8 hPa (+0.9)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 52 mi57 min WSW 24 G 27 76°F 78°F1009.2 hPa76°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA13 mi54 minno data1.75 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Rain Fog/Mist70°F67°F90%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

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Last 24hrN9N9NE12NE11NE10N9NE9NE6CalmCalmCalmS3S4S8S6S7S8S7S9S11S11S103
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W7W9W6W5CalmSW3CalmSW3CalmS3S4CalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmE56N6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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