Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, PA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday January 24, 2021 5:11 AM EST (10:11 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 4:15AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 323 Pm Est Sat Jan 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. A slight chance of snow showers early. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees, and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:202101240315;;375561 FZUS51 KCLE 232023 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 323 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ149-240315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City , PA
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location: 42.12, -80.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 240903 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 403 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over eastern Ohio will continue to move eastward through the day. A weakening cold front will sag into the central Great Lakes tonight as a stronger storm system emerges from the Southern Plains. This southern storm system will eventually move up the Ohio River Valley Monday night into Tuesday. There will be a brief lull between storm systems Tuesday night into Wednesday before a Gulf coast low pressure drifts toward the Ohio Valley Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. We are seeing increasing returns on the radar across the southern and western CWA westward into Indiana early this morning. So far the dry air under the higher cloud cover is enough to evaporate the precipitation falling from them. Cloud cover will lower and attempt to saturate lower into the atmosphere but it will take well into the morning before we start seeing snow at the surface. So expect lots of virga until then.

A weakening area of low pressure will move across Ontario today with a piece of jet energy located to its south. This jet energy will move across the region around 700 mb and will assist in some frontogenisis near this level. This would mainly impact locations near the lakeshore northward across Lake Erie. There is some dry air to overcome but think some very light snow may reach the surface across NE OH into NW PA. Worst case would get .1 to .2 inches of snow to the surface. However chances are it will be no more than a very light dusting.

Across the southern CWA there will be increasing isentropic lift with some light snow possible near and south of a line from near Marion to Mansfield to Canton. Again the dry air will impact how much precipitation reaches the surface. The main concern may end up being some freezing drizzle since there doesnt appear to be all that much ice in the cloud cover over the region to seed from above. Think very light snow will be possible in this region as well but will mention the potential for some freezing drizzle late in the afternoon into the evening. The weak forcing should shift out of the region by 10 pm with dry conditions then expected areawide through the overnight. Cloud cover will continue to thicken and lower through sunrise Monday.

Highs today should range from the mid 20's across NW OH to the lower 30's across northern Ohio. Lows tonight will be tricky with a brief window of thinner cloud cover possible, especially across NE OH into NW PA. Currently looks as if lows will range from the teens across NW PA top the mid 20's.

Monday will be an interesting day to watch as we get a wintry mix across the region through the day. As the Southern Plains low moves to the lower Ohio River Valley it will create a significant amount of isentropic lift over the region. Expect to see precipitation drift from south to north through the day. As the precipitation starts at all locations it appears it will be snow. Warmer air just above the surface will spread over the region during the afternoon with freezing rain beginning to mix with the snow across the southern CWA then slowly lifting northward through 6 pm. There could be a mixture of snow or sleet accompanying the increasing threat of freezing rain late afternoon into the evening as the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere has significant impacts. At this time we will only go a mention of a dusting to around an inch across the CWA. The greatest amounts across the southern CWA. The amount of ice is very uncertain at this time. Light amounts of ice are possible by sunset Monday. If confidence in the onset of the freezing rain continues we will need to issue a winter weather advisory. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to maybe mid 30's.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Upper level ridge of high pressure over the East Coast by Monday evening will remain nearly stationary through this period. A shortwave trough will ride over the top of the ridge forcing a surface low pressure out of the southern Plains states northeast to the Ohio Valley by Monday evening. The shortwave trough and associated surface low will move quickly east Tuesday and off the East Coast. Upper level ridge will amplify once again Tuesday night over the forecast area as yet another more vigorous upper level trough shifts east toward the area Wednesday night. This will result in a deep digging surface trough extending from just west of James Bay south to Texas.

The main weather maker will be the surface low pressure system that moves through the Ohio Valley. Current forecast is shaping up to become a meteorological mess with the potential for mixed precipitation of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Precipitation will have already arrived by Monday night across the area and we should see a transition from snow across the north to mixed precipitation with time from south to north. All rain will be expected late Monday night across the south and then much of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. The northern tier counties will linger in the mixed precipitation. As the low pressure system moves east of the are by Tuesday, an upper and mid level trough with associated moisture will linger back west over the forecast area. Will increase precipitation chances for Tuesday with these features. Mixed precipitation rain/snow will transition to all snow Tuesday as cold air advection develops in the wake of the low pressure system. Upper level and surface ridge Wednesday will result in a brief period of fair weather but the upper level trough and associated moisture will bring a minimal chance for precipitation Wednesday night. But will stick with slight chance for now. Some slight warming will take place as the low arrives across the area Monday into Tuesday but as mentioned, colder air slips into the region by Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Large amplitude upper level ridge will gradually build east through this period. Upper level low will dive into the north Atlantic Ocean while another trough pushes east into the western United States. Both features will aid in amplifying the upper level ridge as it moves east. Large area of surface high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes and Ontario Canada and extend a ridge south to the Gulf Coast states Thursday through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, yet another surface low pressure system will approach the area Saturday and extend a warm front east. There is the possibility that some rain and snow showers will slide east into the area by late in the day Saturday and will mention a chance POP for that period. Otherwise, fair weather will be the rule Thursday through Friday night across the area. Expecting a gradual warming trend to the upper 30s for highs by Saturday as overall pattern shifts back toward the trend we have seen over much of the winter so far.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. Still some pesky MVFR cloud cover lingering across NW PA. It looks like they should gradually thin and shift eastward overnight. Otherwise we will see an increase in middle and high level cloud cover through the morning. There could be some very light snow that develops near the lakeshore northward across Lake Erie. This looks very light and would mainly impact NE OH/NW PA. Think this snow falls from a middle level cloud deck so still VFR conditions. Elsewhere VFR conditions are anticipated through the day. The exception may be near and south of a line from near Marion to Mansfield to Canton where weak isentropic lift could produce some light snow. However there is concern that there will not be much ice in the cloud cover over this region to seed the lower levels so the threat of some freezing drizzle will exist lat afternoon into the evening. Maybe some brief MVFR/IFR cloud cover if the drizzle can materialize. Beyond 03Z the entire region should be dry with VFR conditions expected overnight.

Winds remain light through the TAF period. There will be some light southeast winds that develop late morning and persist into the afternoon but become light and variable during the evening.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible Monday morning through Tuesday. This may be accompanied by periods of snow in NW Ohio with mixed precipitation elsewhere on Monday.

MARINE. Lake will be quiet until about Monday night as winds begin to pick up with the advancing low pressure system across the Ohio Valley. Will likely need a small craft advisory Monday night ending some time Tuesday morning as the low pressure system moves east of the area. Next threat for small craft advisory will take place Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure builds east toward the Great Lakes and tightens up gradient across the area against low pressure expected to move up the East Coast.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . MM SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . MM MARINE . Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 17 mi53 min N 4.1 G 8
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 35 mi101 min S 5.1 G 8
NREP1 35 mi101 min NNW 2.9 G 7 26°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 52 mi53 min SSE 8 G 9.9 18°F 33°F1026 hPa14°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA13 mi20 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast22°F14°F71%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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