Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ149 Expires:201908170815;;752197 Fzus51 Kcle 170153 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 953 Pm Edt Fri Aug 16 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-170815- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 953 Pm Edt Fri Aug 16 2019
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 76 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City , PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.12, -80.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 171327
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
927 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A zonal flow will set up across the great lakes region this
weekend through the early part of next week which will bring an
active weather pattern as well as above average temperatures. A
trough will cross the great lakes region towards the middle of
next week bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for
the end of the week.

Near term through Sunday
Surface cold front lingers across southern michigan with a warm
and moist airmass across ohio and pa this morning. Warm air
advection today along with some moisture pooling will push dew
points around 70 this afternoon. Forecast concern for today
will be the location of the shower initialization this
afternoon. MCS over il this morning expected to dissipate as it
drifts east into in and then oh this afternoon. A weak vort max
ahead of this feature triggered a few showers in in W oh this
morning which continue to dissipate as the energy moves out.

Will monitor this system as models have a hard time with these
types of complexes. Overall the environment will favor some
isolated to scattered convection this afternoon as we
destabilize with temperatures in the mid 80s, warmest east away
from the MCS debris clouds. Bulk shear values around 35 kt this
afternoon with mucapes around 2k will be sufficient for some
strong to severe storms. The main threat will be damaging wind
gusts up to 65 mph and large hail up to quarter size.

It appears the weather and storms may calm down after midnight
through early Sunday morning. There will be another series of
mcvs riding along the mid level flow but timing will be hard
more than 24 hours out. One MCV may reach far northwest ohio by
12z Sunday morning with another round of possible storms for
that part of ohio and the western basin of lake erie. The mcv
depicted by the models which appears to move across northern
indiana towards lake erie by 21z may be the one to watch more
closely due to it coming across during peak daytime heating and
a little better thermodynamics. The main story for tomorrow will
be again the chance for additional storms in the afternoon with
a few severe possible. Temperatures will be running warmer than
average, in the middle and upper 80s with humid conditions.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Instability will linger into the Sunday overnight hours, allowing
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Monday morning and slow down into a weak
west-east oriented stationary front over our forecast area. Although
there is weak upper level forcing, MUCAPE ranging between 2000-3000
j kg will be plenty to support mostly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong downburst winds
and some hail on Monday and Tuesday. There won't be too much
vertical wind shear each of these days, so there won't be much
organized convection and any threat of severe weather will remain
isolated. Flooding could be a concern with a weak stationary front
over our area. Pwat is expected to range between 1.6 and 1.8 with
mean storm motions around 15 to 20 knots. While these numbers aren't
particularly concerning, the presence of a stationary front along
with this environment could prove problematic if we get training
thunderstorms.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
A large digging upper trough is expected to move southeast across
ontario and into the upper great lakes region Wednesday. A surface
low is expected to develop over ontario and into western quebec. A
cold front extending from the low is expected to sweep through our
forecast area on Wednesday afternoon. A relatively warm, moist
atmosphere will still be in place ahead of this front. With slightly
higher deep layer shear of 25 to 30 knots present on Wednesday,
convection that initiates along and ahead of this cold front should
be more organized that Monday and Tuesday's convection. The threat
for severe weather will be a little bit higher on this day is the
passage of the cold front is during the afternoon when it is most
diurnally favorable. High pressure will follow on Thursday and
Friday, with a big airmass change. Expect mostly sunny skies,
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s
on Thursday and Friday, all of which are far more comfortable than
the preceding days.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the next 24 to 30
hours with the exception around convection and scattered
showers where brief MVFR to ifr could be possible. There may be
some vcts between 18z and 21z but not confident enough to
mention in tafs at this point. Have targeted the best potential
for scattered afternoon and evening convection to possibly
impact TAF sites between 21z and 24z in prob30 groups. There is
a very limited chance for a couple strong to severe storms as
well across the region this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
winds will be generally 5 to 11 knots from the south or
southwest during the next 24 hours.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms daily through Tuesday.

Marine
Generally west to southwest flow will persist through the weekend. A
west to east oriented stationary front is expected to be present
over or south of the lake on Monday and Tuesday, making winds and
waves a little more variable on those days. Scattered thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through Wednesday. A cold front will move
east across the area Wednesday afternoon. Northerly winds of 10 to
15 knots will follow this, bringing waves of 2 to 4 feet,
likely to be the highest waves in the forecast period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Jamison
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Griffin
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 17 mi55 min SW 8 G 12
45132 - Port Stanley 48 mi85 min WSW 16 75°F 1012.7 hPa (+1.3)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 52 mi55 min SW 11 G 15 77°F 77°F1013.8 hPa68°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
NW7
G12
W11
W11
W15
W15
W11
W11
W9
W6
W3
S2
SE5
SE3
G6
S7
G10
S9
S8
S9
S10
G13
S13
G16
S12
G16
S13
G17
S13
G16
SW9
G18
SW20
1 day
ago
E6
NE10
NE11
NE13
NE16
NE10
NE14
E17
E13
E12
G18
E11
E9
E9
E6
G9
SE6
S5
S1
G4
SE2
S5
S1
S5
SW4
S3
SW13
G16
2 days
ago
NE9
NE10
NE12
NE13
NE11
G14
NE12
NE12
E11
NE13
E15
E9
SE7
E6
SE6
G9
E8
G12
E10
E8
E11
E8
E10
E8
E8
E4
NE5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA13 mi34 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast76°F63°F64%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hr3NW5W12W6W7W10
G15
W7W9SW5SW4S3CalmS3S3S5S6S7S9S10S11S12S13S11S10
1 day agoW4N9N7NE10NE10NE12NE11NE11NE9NE10E8E6CalmCalmSE7S6CalmSE3S4S3SW3S3S3Calm
2 days agoNE11
G15
N11NE14NE12NE14NE9NE12NE12NE10NE10
G15
NE7E5E3CalmNE3E4CalmE3E3E5NE4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.