Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trenton, MI

AVIATION

VFR conditions hold through the late evening period, as high based cloud thickens with time. A steady increase in moisture occurs overnight north of a low pressure system drifting into the lower Ohio valley. Showers will increase in coverage, with an associated drop in ceilings from low VFR/MVFR into IFR during the latter half of the night. Widespread IFR likely throughout Tuesday morning, with a brief interval of LIFR plausible particularly at PTK 12z-15z.
Extensive low stratus at IFR to low MVFR will persist into the afternoon and evening hours, with a continued chance for showers. An isolated late day thunderstorm will be possible.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Potential exists for an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon and evening.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight through Tuesday.

* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM Tuesday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

DISCUSSION...

A weakness in geopotential heights will coalesce within the high amplitude ridge and begin to lift northward into central the Great Lakes region tonight. Above normal temperatures and occasional spotty shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible through Thursday. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday (5 to 10 degrees above normal) and the lower 80s (10 to 15 degrees above normal) Thursday.

A lead arc of absolute vorticity collocated with weak mid to upper level diffluence will spread northward after 00Z this evening.
Increased synoptic scale forcing will lead to lift and the potential for some rainfall. Forecast soundings suggest it will take until approximately 01z-02z before moistening occurs in the 1.0 to 5.0 kft agl layer. The rain chances will steadily lift northward in a more narrow corridor with the potential persisting then between 12-16Z for areas north of M 46. Low variance exists amongst the EPS members with the interquartile 24 hr amounts confined to less than 0.25 inch.

Some challenge to the Tuesday forecast regarding precipitation as the plan view progs suggest broad/deep saturation with a lack of any isentropic downglide. On the other hand, forecast soundings do show some weak active subsidence developing in the 4.5 to 7.0 kft agl layer, effectively capping much convective development. EPS data remains very bearish on precipitation for Tuesday with 24 hour values again below 0.25 inch. Chance Pops are fine for Tuesday. The open trough axis will then lift northward directly into Lower Michigan for Wednesday. The moist air mass in place with dewpoints in the lower 60s and favorable background convergence forcing will result in shower and thunderstorm activity chances. 70-50% chances for precipitation appear reasonable with relatively higher potential at the Michigan Ohio stateline.

The arrival of the next upper level jet exit region and returning cyclonic flow influence will bring widespread support for shower and thunderstorms sometime Thursday. Shortwave ridging in advance of dynamic upper level low should keep conditions quiet for a good portion of Thursday, until the cold front arrives. A considerable amount of uncertainty exists regarding any strong to severe thunderstorm threat as the best forcing could hold off until 06-12Z Friday.

Cool northwest flow will then be possible for next weekend as deep troughing remains in place over the Great Lakes. Depending on timing of successive cold fronts or lake breeze boundaries, the temperature forecast will be up for revision.

MARINE...

As broad high pressure moves off the Atlantic coast, modest southeast return flow slowly advects moisture and instability northward into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the southern lakes tonight through Thursday as a weak upper low tracks overhead. Ambient winds will remain light - mainly 10 to 15 kt - and predominantly out of the east and southeast through mid-week. Low pressure then organizes over the Midwest and sends a warm front across the region Thursday night into Friday. This will bring stronger southerly wind and the potential for more organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.