Friday, November15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Springfield, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:30PM Friday November 15, 2019 5:59 PM EST (22:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 439 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 439 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight, followed by strong high pressure building in from southeast canada and settling into northern new england Saturday into Saturday night. The high will retreat into the canadian maritimes Sunday into Monday as low pressure approaches and passes south and east of long island. Another low may pass well south and east of long island mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, MA
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location: 42.13, -72.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 152051
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
351 pm est Fri nov 15 2019

Synopsis
Weak high pressure early tonight will give way to a strong cold
front dropping southward from northern new england later tonight.

This front will usher in a period of much colder air, gusty north
winds and dry weather tonight into Saturday. Temperatures rebound
back above the freezing mark along the coasts Saturday night, but
another chilly night is anticipated across interior southern new
england. High pressure will bring a brief period of dry weather Sunday. A
coastal storm will then bring rain and strong winds, possibly some
interior ice early Monday morning. A second storm may impact the
region Wednesday followed by high pressure on Thursday. A cold front
brings chance for rain and snow on Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Southwest flow and plentiful Sun under weak high pressure is leading
to a pretty nice afternoon across southern new england today, with
many areas reaching into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The feature of
interest that we're watching is a robust arctic cold front, which
per satellite and metars as of late this afternoon roughly extends
along the st. Lawrence river, and was just about to enter far
northern new england.

Looking at quiet weather conditions with a slight shift in winds to
w through the first part of the evening, ahead of the arctic front.

Guidance continues to show good agreement on timing the front
through southern new england - entering into our northern ma
counties toward 02-04z, then quickly advancing southward into the
offshore waters into the early part of the overnight. Convergence
and moisture availability along the front once it gets here is
pretty limited, and most high-res models are consistent in losing
robust signals for convective snow showers as compared to nh vt into
me. Were any light snow showers or flurries to transpire, they'd
likely be restricted to areas along north of route 2. The nam-3km
currently hints at this more bullishly than others, but even then,
think it is too low-confidence a scenario to include mention at this
point. Will continue to offer a mainly dry frontal passage.

Front will bring about a significant air mass change with strong
cold and dry advection pouring in behind the front, with winds
flipping from wsw to nnw N and becoming quite gusty. Plummetting
temperatures to lows into the mid teens to low 20s with winds 10-15
mph gusts 25-28 mph should produce single-digit to teens wind chills
overnight.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Saturday:
high and dry, but also quite chilly with cold wind chills. Not as
cold as the air mass we just came out of, but with north winds
gusting to 20-25 mph early in the day, lowest wind chills in the
single digits to low teens should be common in the interior early in
the day. Though wind speeds in the mixed layer decrease through the
day, still looking at wind chills in the low-mid 20s by afternoon
under sustained north winds 10-15 mph.

It's not just a cold air mass but also an exceedingly dry one
through a large depth of atmosphere. Dewpoints likely to tumble to
single digit to sub-zero values as afternoon mixing commences,
bringing afternoon rh values in the interior to the 20-30 percent
range. Progged 10-hr fuel moistures are around 11-15 percent, given
relative dryness over the last few days. With the progged winds, i
had entertained the idea of a elevated fire weather sps for ct and
ri but think wind gusts should be subsiding enough to the point
where it may be too marginal a concern.

Despite clear sunny skies, cold advection most of the day will lead
to limited to ineffective insolation with highs only reaching the
mid upper 20s in franklin hampshire and northern worcester counties
to the low-mid 30s across northern ct, ri and eastern southeast ma.

Saturday night:
1037 mb high over northern vt by evening to shift into northern me
through the overnight, with related sfc ridging remaining
established across southern new england. Though the first part of
the evening should be mostly clear, will see clouds on the increase
late into the pre-dawn hrs of Sunday - lowest thickest towards the
south coast and into SE ma.

Though 925-850 mb flow trends easterly and results in modest low-
level warm advection areawide - northerly drainage flow from the
high to our north should act to maintain sub-freezing dry air across
much of the interior with typical diurnal trend, with temperatures
along the southern eastern coasts at least hovering to warming
overnight. These trends are depicted well in most model 2-m agl
temperature forecasts, and tried to reflect similar trends in hourly
temperature grids. So while lows in the upper 20s to low 30s occur
early in the night with slow rises by morning across
eastern southern ma and the CAPE islands - lows inland likely will
be some 10-15 degrees cooler (teens to near 20) under northerly flow
and a longer period of radiational cooling.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* temperatures moderate to near seasonal levels but pattern looks
unsettled with multiple storm chances.

* an ocean storm may impact sne Sun night into Monday with rain and
gale-force coastal wind. Minor coastal flooding possible on
eastern ma coast. There could also be a period of freezing drizzle
in central and western ma, with the greatest probability on higher
elevations. Low confidence on extent and duration of icing.

* another coastal storm may impact the area on Wed but currently
impacts look to be limited to scattered showers. Low confidence on
storm impacts this far out.

* Thu looks dry before a cold front brings the chance of rain and
snow showers on fri.

Details...

Sunday...

expect clouds to be on the increase Sun morning from the se. By sun
afternoon, expect NE ene winds to pick up especially near the coast
as a storm comes up the atlantic coast. Sun high temperatures will
be warmer than on Sat but still running 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. And despite temperatures in the mid 40s in eastern ma and ri
on Sun afternoon, the winds will make it feel like the low to mid
30s. There are still plenty of questions with regards to how fast
the aforementioned low pressure will track up the coast and how
close it will approach our area. Part of the answer will hinge on
how quickly the high pressure associated with Friday's arctic front
moves out of the way. All the major ensembles (06z ecmwf, 06z gfs
and 00z canadian) show striking similarities in the low pressure
center about 100 mi SE of CAPE hatteras on early Sunday afternoon.

Something remarkable is the slow forward motion of the low pressure
center. In fact, the high-res NAM 3km guidance shows the low center
meandering and even doing a loop as the high pressure holds its
ground to the north.

Sunday night into Monday...

chances of showers will likely be on the increase late Sunday night
into early Mon morning. Synoptic pattern supports low-level cold air
drainage from the ne, potentially keeping temperatures in the low to
mid 30s for much of Mon morning away from the coast. As such,
central and western ma could be looking at a period of freezing
drizzle on early Mon morning. GFS soundings in bufkit show a
substantial warm nose of +3 to +5c at 850mb in orh on early Monday
morning, with surface temperatures staying at or below freezing till
late morning. Conversely, have pretty high confidence in the lack of
icing issues near the coast (se ma including CAPE and the islands)
because of moderating effect of warm ocean waters, which are
currently in the low 50s around ma bay.

Overall, precipitation overspreads the region from the southeast
late Sunday night, reaching central and western ma by pre-dawn
hours. Note that it could take a few hours for precipitation to
saturate the mid-level atmosphere before reaching the ground due to
the very dry air mass from the aforementioned high pressure. Bufkit
soundings show sites in central and western ma having dew points of -
20c at 700mb. Even after the mid to low levels get saturated, bufkit
soundings point to a lack of saturation in the snow growth region so
precipitation looks to be on the light side and in the form of
drizzle. This means that precipitation will likely start off as
drizzle as opposed to rain.

The dry air mass also increases the potential for wet bulbing, so as
the precipitation starts falling, the air cools and this could
prolong the duration for freezing drizzle. All things considered,
the Mon morning commute in central and western ma could be messy,
particularly in higher elevations where road surfaces are likely to
stay below freezing for much of the morning. However, there is low
confidence in ice accretion given the general light nature of the
precipitation.

Nonetheless, the biggest uncertainty remains how long surface
temperatures stay at or below freezing early Mon morning. A model
blend shows much of central and western ma staying at or below
freezing till 7am Monday and then warming into the mid 30s by mid to
late morning. Nonetheless, a difference of just 2 degf will mean the
difference between wet and icy roads. Given we are still more than
60 hours out, it is fair to say that higher elevations are most at
risk of freezing drizzle on Mon morning. Thus I have gone ahead and
raised the chance for freezing drizzle for areas above 1000 ft,
namely the east slopes of the berkshires and worcester hills. A
winter weather advisory might also be needed for these areas but
will leave for later shifts to decide. Be sure to check back for
regular updates from later shifts as we get closer to the event.

Besides the precipitation, northeast gusts of 40 mph are possible on
Monday morning into early afternoon on the SE coast so a gale
warning might be needed for all waters outside the harbors. The
winds will likely lead to a sizeable fetch area of easterly winds,
which should generate a storm surge of around 1.5 ft. Adding that to
mon afternoon high tide, some minor coastal flooding is possible for
east-facing beaches.

Tuesday...

generally dry with afternoon highs ranging from low to mid 40s in
western ma ct to upper 40s to low 50s in eastern ma and ri.

Wed...

an offshore storm may impact our area with scattered showers, with
snow showers across higher terrain. Confidence is very low at this
point and with much more attention paid to the Sun Mon system.

Afternoon highs range from upper 30s in western ma to mid 40s to low
50s elsewhere.

Thursday...

Thursday looks to be mostly dry with a mix of Sun and clouds. Gusty
nw winds, however, keep high temperatures in the upper 30s and low
40s in western ma and mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

Friday...

an upper-level low looks to track across southeast canada on Friday
, which would produce a cold front and a band of showers developing
ahead of it. There does not appear to be much moisture associated
with the system, as the biggest snow is likely to be across interior
new england. There may be a chance for light snow showers on fri
morning, especially across the higher elevations of western ma but
otherwise it should be a quick-passing rain shower for most areas.

Colder air comes in behind the cold front but it will be nothing
like the cold we have seen this week thanks to a more zonal flow
pattern.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

21z TAF update:
short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

vfr and southwest breezes to 20-25 kts to continue until a
strong cold front moves through southern new england through the
03-07z timeframe. Front will be dry, but it will be accompanied
by few- sctVFR low-mid clouds (040-070). Winds to shift from
wsw W to NW and gusty (20-28 kts inland, nearing 30 kts towards
the coasts) upon and after frontal passage.

Saturday...

vfr, through continued breezy with N wind gusts 25-35 kt through
morning, then subsiding to 20-28 kt by afternoon. Gusts will
trend on the higher end of those ranges toward the coasts.

Saturday night...

vfr should prevail for most of the night, though low-level
moisture advecting on E winds should allow for bknVFR,
possibly MVFR ceilings SE of bos and pvd, mainly affecting the
cape islands. Light north winds in the interior, though becoming
e ene 10-15 kts gusts 20-25 kts along the south coast CAPE and
islands.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. Slight chance shra, slight chance fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. Shra likely, chance fzra, chance
pl.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. Shra likely, chance fzra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance shra, chance fzra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance fzra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra, slight chance fzra,
slight chance shsn.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Marine
Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Southwest winds around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will
shift to NW N overnight tonight as an arctic front sweeps across
the waters. Winds are expected to gust to gale-force overnight
tonight into the first part of Saturday, and gale warnings
remain in place for most waters except for narragansett bay and
boston harbor (scas continue for these marine zones). As gale
warnings come to an end late tomorrow, these will need to be
replaced with scas as winds and seas will still be solidly in
sca criteria even into Saturday night, but in an effort to avoid
double headlines, will not issue on this shift.

Seas will continue to build tonight and peak at 7-9 feet into
early Saturday for the offshore waters. Seas should subside
into the 5-7 foot range in the waters off eastern ma, though
building trends to seas to near 10 ft in the waters south of
the islands, becoming increasingly rough as well as these areas
start to feel the fringe effects of a coastal low.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain showers likely.

Monday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 3 am to 1 pm est Saturday for anz232>235-237.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Saturday for anz230.

Gale warning from 1 am to 1 pm est Saturday for anz231-250-251-
254.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 5 pm est Saturday for anz236.

Gale warning from 1 am to 5 pm est Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Loconto chai
near term... Loconto
short term... Loconto
long term... Wtb chai
aviation... Wtb loconto chai
marine... Wtb loconto chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi65 min W 4.1 G 6 47°F 54°F1018.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 61 mi44 min W 9.9 G 13 49°F 1018.4 hPa33°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 62 mi65 min WSW 5.1 G 6 48°F 48°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA6 mi2.1 hrsW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds48°F22°F37%1019.1 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA11 mi66 minW 410.00 miFair45°F21°F40%1019.5 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT16 mi68 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds48°F21°F34%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEF

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7SW7SW9S3W8SW10W8W10NW6
1 day agoNW6W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:04 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:43 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.41.11.71.91.81.61.310.70.50.40.40.81.62.22.42.42.11.71.30.90.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:18 AM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:35 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:21 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:28 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.21.721.91.71.410.80.60.40.40.91.62.22.52.52.31.91.40.90.60.30.1

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.