Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wesleyville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:17PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:32PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201908191415;;869794 Fzus51 Kcle 190754 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 354 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-191415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 354 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 76 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wesleyville , PA
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location: 42.13, -80     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 191350
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
950 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front will remain west to east across the region
over the next several days. A series of weak disturbances or mid
level troughs will move along the front bringing on and off
chances for storms through the middle of this week. The front
will move southeast through the area Wednesday night. A cooler
and drier weather pattern will follow for the end of the week as
high pressure builds across the region.

Near term through Tuesday
A cold front just north of lake erie will slide south across the
area this afternoon. The front will be the focusing mechanism
for a few possible showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Will keep the chance pops going for today. Made
some adjustments to the cloud cover in the northwest and
northeast to account for clouds in place.

Previous discussion...

a very weak and stalled frontal boundary is located from west to
east near lake erie this morning. It it ill-defined and trapped
under a west to east flow in the upper levels. Another weak mid
level disturbance or piece of energy will ride along the
westerly flow again this afternoon across indiana into ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. This small disturbance in the 500 mb
flow may interact with the stalled weak surface boundary again
this afternoon and develop a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the daytime heating. Shear and thermodynamics
will be weaker today and do not expect much in the way of storm
organization. At this time, we do not see much in the potential
for anything strong, just general scattered thunderstorms
expected.

Most of that diurnal convection will decrease around or after
sunset this evening. We should see a fairly quiet evening and
night tonight. A slightly stronger disturbance and some mid
level jet energy will move across the midwest into the ohio
river valley on Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon. This feature will
be able to interact with the weak surface boundary and there
will be better thermodynamics to work with Tuesday afternoon.

Spc has the entire region in a marginal risk. We will see a
little better coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. A few strong to severe
storms may be possible with damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and
large hail up to quarter size.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Tuesday night will still have some residual instability with mucape
still holding around 1000 to 1500 j kg. With outflow boundaries
likely present from daytime convection, scattered convection will
likely still persist through the overnight period.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to continue downstream a
rapidly digging upper level trough. Most model guidance have
temperatures in the low to mid 80s by 18z Wednesday with dew points
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. MUCAPE expected to be around 1500 to
2000 j kg with 0-6 km shear of 25 to 35 knots, depending on which
model guidance you look at. Because of this combination, there is a
small chance for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon. The cold
front is expected to move east across the area on Wednesday evening
decreasing pops behind it. High pressure begins building in from the
northwest on Thursday, bringing with it seasonably cool and dry
weather.

Long term Friday through Sunday
Seasonably cool and dry weather continue through Friday and Saturday
as high pressure continues to progress southeast across the great
lakes region. As high pressure moves to the northeast, warm,
southerly advection brings back seasonably normal temperatures and
dew points to the area. The next real chance for precipitation is
Sunday night into Monday afternoon ahead of a developing upper level
trough.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
A weak surface front is located west to east across northern
ohio near the lakeshore. Surface winds will be ill-defined today
especially near the weak surface boundary. We will keep winds
mostly light and variable today closer to the lakeshore and a
light south or southwest wind for TAF sites closer to central
ohio. Winds will be 5 knots or less regardless. We will expected
mostlyVFR conditions for the next 24 to 30 hours. The only
exception will be tol this morning with some low clouds and
light fog. Ceilings have been bouncing around 300 or 400 feet
and can expect that for the next few hours. There could be a few
isolated or scattered showers and storms this afternoon but
overall coverage is not high enough to mention in tafs at this
time.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

Marine
Generally low impact winds and waves the next few days on lake erie.

A cold front currently situated over lower michigan will slowly move
south across the lake today and stall just south of the lake
tonight. As low pressure develops and moves northeast into ontario,
this stationary front will lift north as a warm front Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front extending from the aforementioned low will
move east across the lake on Wednesday afternoon allowing 10 to 15
knot northerly winds to persist through Wednesday night. With a warm
lake and cold advection processes, there is a chance there could be
overperforming wind speeds Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The GFS is hinting at pockets of 20+ knot of onshore flow, which
would certainly bring some nearshore zones into small craft advisory
condition. This will be something to watch in the next couple of
days. High pressure moves east across the area on Friday with winds
generally staying around 10 knots or less through the weekend.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Griffin lombardy
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Griffin
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 6 mi48 min WSW 6 G 12
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 42 mi66 min WSW 11 G 17 74°F 1016.9 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA10 mi75 minSW 710.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12SW9
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SW4SE10SW6S4S3SW6S8S7S7SW76
1 day agoW9
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W9W9SW8
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W8W7W3CalmS4S5CalmS3S6S7S5W5SE6SE4S10S7S8S10SW6
2 days agoW12W6W7W10
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W7W9SW5SW4S3CalmS3S3S5S6S7S9S10S11S12S13S11S10SW9W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.