Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:25PM Thursday October 1, 2020 7:30 PM EDT (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 6:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon and Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue and Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will move across the waters late tonight and Fri. Low pres developing on the front will track S and E of the waters Fri. Weak high pres then builds into new england this weekend. A coastal low is expected to track S and E of the waters Mon followed by high pres on Tue. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 012023 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 423 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather continues through this evening. Scattered showers are likely Friday, most numerous northwest of Boston and Providence. Dry weather returns for this weekend, along with near normal temperatures. Low pressure will pass southeast of Nantucket Monday and will lead to some rain, mainly across southeastern sections of the region late Sunday night into early Monday night. Dry weather returns Tuesday behind the departing low. Low pressure moving eastward from the Great Lakes and a strong cold front will cause a chance of showers Wednesday and a blusterly, cooler day Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Not much change from previous thinking. Mid level trough axis remains to our west through tonight, which will steer a shortwave towards our region late tonight into Friday. Some showers could make it as far east as the Connecticut River valley by daybreak Friday, give or take a few miles.

Clouds will be increasing tonight, especially across the interior. Despite rather light winds, this should prevent significant radiational cooling after midnight. Expecting low temperatures to be slightly above normal for early October.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A mid level shortwave will be more of a factor in our weather Friday, when it will pass us by. At the surface, many of the guidance sources attempt to spin up rather ill-defined low pressures at various points in time during the day. The one which may be most significant is expected to move along the east coast of New England, but not really develop until it reaches the Gulf of Maine Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Even so, this should not be a significant coastal low. It most likely will provide just enough low level convergence to organize some heavier showers, and perhaps some gusty NW winds towards the coast during the afternoon and evening. Once this low pressure passes off to our north, it will also push some colder air across our region.

Unfortunately, this is not looking like a substantial rainfall. Most locations, where it rains at all, will see up to one quarter inch. The highest rainfall totals should be across the interior, which will be closer to the better forcing for lift. Drier weather starts to return Friday afternoon, with all of southern New England rain-free Friday night.

More clouds than sunshine during the peak heating hours will be enough to nudge high temperatures to near to slightly below normal levels Friday and Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. 420 PM update .

Highlights

* Two main rain chances . Sunday night into Monday and again late Wednesday

Saturday and Sunday .

On Sat., there is very weak low pressure over the region. Within the southwest flow aloft, a weak vorticity max moves northeast from PA. However, the air mass will be quite dry. So, a mix of sun and clouds is forecast with seasonably cool highs in the mid/upper 60s. Can't rule out an isolated shower in northern MA, along the VT/NH border.

Sunday looks dry, with sunshine to start then some increase in mid and high cloudiness as upper level moisture moves in with the southwest flow/ridging aloft.

Sunday night and Monday .

Upper trough amplifies east of the Great Lakes Sunday night and develops into a cutoff low, passing near or southeast of the 40N 70W benchmark on Mon. Very strong PVA moves across southeastern New England. At the surface, intensifying low pressure scoots out south and southeast of that Benchmark, down to 996 mb by Mon. evening. Models actually in remarkable agreement on this development and location. Result will be a period of rain, most likely in RI and southeast MA, but there will be chances throughout northern CT and the rest of MA. May be more convective toward Cape Cod and the islands due to closer proximity to the better dynamics. It'll be a chilly day, with east to northeast flow . highs mainly 55 to 60, except lower 60s along the southeast coast.

Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from a few hundredths northwest MA to a few tenths in central/northeast MA/northern CT to up to 0.5 to 0.75 inches in parts of southern RI and southeasternmost MA. The highest totals should remain over the waters south of Nantucket.

Monday night into Tuesday night .

Any light rain should end Monday night. A mainly dry day is expected Tuesday with low precipitable water values over the region. Highs in the mid and upper 60s. Winds turn southerly Tuesday night in advance of an approaching low pressure and frontal system. Moisture will start to increase and there could be fog and a few light rain showers breaking out after midnight, especially along the south coast.

Wednesday and Wednesday night .

Similar to Sunday night and Monday, another very amplified upper trough moves eastward from the Great Lakes and forms a cutoff low at 500 mb. GFS farther north, to the north of VT, with this cutoff, but new 12Z ECMWF is farther south, over central New England, with its corresponding deep low moving across northern New England.

In either case, the result for us should be a warmer day (with 925 mb temps reaching +16C) out ahead of a cold front that sweeps across the area Wednesday night. Showers are likely with this front. Some areas could receive 0.25 to 0.50 inches with the shower activity. Cannot rule out as much as 0.75 inches, especially in northern sections. Highs Wednesday should reach into the lower 70s.

Thursday . Skies will become sunny behind the departing low pressure, with very dry air aloft moving in. There will be strong cold advection on WNW winds, which will allow for good mixing and a rather windy day. For now, am forecasting gusts to 20-25 mph but stronger over the coastal waters. However, if the stronger ECMWF is right, it could be windy enough for Advisories over land and Gale Warnings over the waters. Will need to keep an eye on that.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: High confidence.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR with winds generally below 5 kt. There is a low risk for a late night rain shower west of the CT River.

Friday: High confidence.

Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible during showers. NW winds of 5 to 10 kt for western MA terminals and S winds of 10 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt possible for southeast MA and Cape terminals.

Friday Night: High confidence.

VFR. Gusty winds diminish during the evening.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories continue today for the outer waters due to lingering rough seas. Expecting seas to finally subside below 5 feet overnight. Winds should also generally remain below 20 kt with a rather tranquil stretch of weather. There is a risk of showers on Friday with briefly reduced visibility.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237-250-254. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ255. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Field NEAR TERM . Belk SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Field AVIATION . Belk/Field MARINE . Belk/Field


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi40 min S 14 G 16 66°F 62°F3 ft1010.9 hPa (+1.4)61°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 26 mi40 min SSW 16 G 18 64°F 3 ft1012.5 hPa (+0.7)57°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi86 min SSW 16 G 19 64°F 5 ft1009.1 hPa
44090 26 mi33 min 62°F2 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi60 min 70°F 64°F1010.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi105 min SSE 2.9 69°F 1013 hPa64°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi60 min 68°F 68°F1013.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi60 min SSW 11 G 14 68°F 1012.9 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi60 min 66°F 67°F1013.4 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi60 min 67°F 60°F
CHTM3 48 mi60 min SSW 6 G 13 66°F 65°F1013.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi60 min SSW 7 G 12 69°F 67°F1012.7 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi60 min SSW 9.9 G 12 69°F 1012.8 hPa59°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi30 min SSW 16 G 18
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi60 min SSE 14 G 16 67°F 68°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi35 minSSW 610.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1012.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi38 minSSW 810.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1012.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi34 minSSW 1010.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4Calm----S7S9SE5S11
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2 days agoS66S55S5SW4S5S4SW3CalmCalmCalm34S64SE8S9SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Damons Point, North River, Massachusetts
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Damons Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:09 PM EDT     8.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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98.47.15.231.20.40.71.93.96.288.88.57.45.73.71.70.50.61.73.45.77.7

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:41 PM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.40.40.91.11.20.90.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.2-1.3-0.80.10.711.110.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.