Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:13PM Sunday December 8, 2019 10:38 PM EST (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 4:00AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 853 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.gale warning in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 853 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. Gale force S to sw winds are expected late Mon afternoon into early Tue. The cold front sweeps across the waters Tue night with a secondary cold front moving through Wed afternoon. Strong high pres moves into the region Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 090213 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 913 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure offshore will start a flow of increasingly milder and more moist air overnight. Showers will develop around daybreak and will turn into a soaking rain Monday into Tuesday, along with strong southwest winds in southeast Massachusetts and on all coastal waters. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, ushering in much colder air that will likely change rain to snow and linger into Wednesday with accumulations possible. Cold and dry into Friday before temperatures begin to moderate Friday night. Next system brings a period of rain by the weekend, with temperatures trending above normal.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 915 PM Update: No significant changes.

Southerly flow is underway which has helped temperatures begin to rise, especially near coast, which will be trend overnight. Warm advection has also led to development of low clouds near CT Valley, as moisture has become trapped beneath inversion. High res guidance indicates these clouds will become more widespread overnight across interior, before spreading toward coast around daybreak.

Still looks like any showers will hold off until around sunrise, which is supported by HRRR and to some degree 00z NAM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. *** Periods of moderate to heavy rain ***

345 PM update .

Monday .

Strong thermal and moisture advection ahead of approaching short wave with 925 mb winds increasing to 60-70 kt. This results in PWATs surging to about 1.25 inches by end of the day. This synoptic scale lift combined with anomalous moisture advection will yield periods of moderate to heavy rain. This strong low level WAA results in surface dew pts rising into the low 50s across eastern CT/RI and eastern MA. These high dew pts combined with plenty of SSW wind should yield appreciable snow melt and combined with moderate to heavy rain at times, expecting lots of standing water for the late day/evening commute. Thus hydroplaning could become a concern. These increasing dew pts streaming over the snowpack will also increase the probability of patchy dense fog.

Strongest wind gusts up to 30 mph will be over southeast MA where dew pts climb into the low 50s and easy low level inversion. Inland with dew pts only the 40s should be enough of an inversion to keep winds 20 mph or less.

As for thunder, not expecting much if any given lack of elevated instability/poor mid level lapse rates.

Monday night .

*** Periods of Moderate to Heavy Rain Likely ***

Periods of moderate to heavy rain continue thru the evening as robust mid level short wave moves across the area and accompanied by 60-70 kts of SSW flow at 925 mb and advects PWATs up to 1.4 inches across RI and eastern MA. This strong low level WAA results in surface dew pts continuing to surge into the low and mid 50s. Thus more snowmelt combined with periods of moderate to heavy rain during the event will continue to yields lots of standing water on area roadways.

SW winds could gusts up to 40 mph over southeast MA including Cape Cod and the Islands. This strong low level WAA pattern will result in temps remaining in the 50s overnight! These increasing dew pts streaming over the snowpack will also keep the risk of patchy dense fog.

Short wave moves east of the region second half of the night with weak short ridging building across the area. Thus a downward trend in precip is likely after midnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 345 PM update .

Highlights .

* Cloudy but mild Tues with another round of showers mainly late day

* Rain early Tues nite changes to a period of accumulating snow (potentially plowable in interior and urban corridor) overnight into Wed. Increasing confidence for adverse impact to Wed AM commute. * Cold and dry Wed nite through Fri. Moderating temperature and moisture levels Friday night.

* Next system for the weekend, with rainy conditions and above- normal temps. Details .

Tuesday:

In the wake of expected rains Monday night, weather pattern remains unsettled for Southern New England. Most of the region will be the warm sector and a cloudy one at that. Will keep chances for showers going through the first part of the day, but tried to focus highest PoPs into the Likely range more tied with the cold front, which approaches our western counties late Tuesday. Cold frontal precip should prove much less than the rains for Monday/Monday night, with additional QPF of a quarter inch or less. Highs mid/upper 50s to near 60.

Tuesday night into Wednesday:

Colder air rushes southeastward Tuesday night, and as at least sheared-out mid-level vort max ripples northeastward from the central Appalachians, will be looking at rain changing to wet snow on the cold side of the cold front.

Did note more ECMWF Ensemble members indicating snow for Tuesday night into Wednesday than 24 hours ago, with ensemble probabilities for 3" or more of snow in the 24-hour period 18z Tue - 18z Wed now up to 50% across western MA/western Hartford County, the hills in central MA and Tolland County eastward into the northern Providence suburbs. Recent trends in the GFS have also trended snowier in this period. Global models show anomalously strong mid and upper level jets (~ 100 kts at 500 mb, 150 kts at 250 mb, with Southern New England positioned in the favorable equatorward entrance region of each jet), and there are hints in the guidance at some bands (axis of 850 mb -EPV, some though unfocused FGen @ 850) during the overnight hrs.

What remains uncertain is the timing of the changeover, forecast liquid-equivalent precip and the northwestern extent of accumulating snows. Each of the above factors renders confidence in snow accumulations at low to moderate levels. Did note that most models have again increased QPF in this period, though there may be a sharp cutoff in precip N/W of the Mass Pike and especially north of northern MA/Route 2 corridor. WPC's Day-3 accumulation seems fairly reasonable as far as a first-cut at accumulations goes.

In spite of stated uncertainties, do think confidence is increasing in potential for an adversely impacted Wednesday morning commute for at least a part of the region, especially across the central part of the interior (Hartford/Springfield, Worcester/Providence into the I- 95 corridor). This is roughly where axis of greatest liquid- equivalent QPF seems to lie, though some variability in models exists to be re-evaluated with forthcoming guidance. Pavement's also apt to be wet at onset and sharply colder temperatures filtering that could freeze this before or during the period of accumulating snow, the potential for slippery travel into the AM commute remains a possibility.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night:

1040+ mb high becomes anchored across much of New England. Quite chilly and dry through Thursday night with 850 mb temps in the -10 to -15C range. Will show highs in the 20s to near freezing, with lows in the teens. A few single digit lows are possible across northern MA.

Southerly warm advection pattern commences Friday into Friday night as high pressure shifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures and moisture levels should begin to recover. Will see increased clouds into the nighttime hrs Friday night, and while the GFS brings in warm frontal precip late, likely too dry to support PoPs higher than low Chance.

Saturday into Sunday:

Weekend remains unsettled with the next chance of significant precip by the weekend, though models continue to deviate on timing. As mentioned, the GFS brings rain in as soon as Friday night, while the ECMWF is more into late Saturday into Saturday night, and the Canadian GEM is still slower than the ECMWF. Could be a decent rain maker for most of southern New England, with another round of gusty southerly winds across the waters.

A return to above-normal temps looks likely for the weekend with 850 mb temps rising into the mid/upper single digits Celsius. Will show highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with clouds and rain likely accompanying the warmest temps, though potential for even warmer with cloud breaks.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/ . High confidence.

02Z TAF Update:

MVFR CIGS near CT Valley will gradually spread across interior overnight, but probably don't reach coastal sites until 10-12Z.

Monday . MVFR with embedded IFR especially inland. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times. LLWS 020/19045kt. Surface winds south at 10-15 kt. Areas of fog will restrict vsbys in the MVFR/IFR category.

Monday night . A mix of MVFR/IFR in periods of rain, moderate to heavy at times. Areas of fog too. Rain possibly tapering off after 06z. LLWS 020/19050kt

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence on exact timing details.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence on exact timing details.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance FZRA, slight chance SHSN.

Saturday: Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance FZRA.

MARINE. Short Term /through Monday Night/ . High confidence.

345 AM update:

** Gale Warning Continues late Monday/Monday Night **

Tonight .

1030+ mb high pressure over Georges Bank continues moving seaward overnight. Gradual increase in SSW winds. Dry weather and good vsby thru midnight but then risk of showers toward daybreak.

Monday .

SSW winds increase to gale force late in the day along with building seas. Areas of dense fog develop possible in the afternoon along with milder conditions. Periods of moderate to heavy rain limit vsby.

Monday night .

SSW gales continue with periods of moderate to heavy rain during the evening along with areas of dense fog possible. Vsby may improve after midnight as rain moves offshore and SSW winds become more SW.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely, snow showers likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night through Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/Loconto NEAR TERM . JWD SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . JWD MARINE . Nocera/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi49 min S 16 G 19 38°F 47°F2 ft1027.4 hPa (-1.9)32°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 26 mi49 min S 23 G 27 42°F 4 ft1028.2 hPa (-2.1)33°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi95 min SW 18 G 21 39°F 46°F4 ft1026.9 hPa
44090 26 mi39 min 46°F2 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi69 min 36°F 40°F1026.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi114 min SSE 4.1 49°F 1030 hPa44°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi75 min 38°F 41°F1029.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi69 min SW 5.1 G 7 39°F 1029.3 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi75 min 44°F 41°F1029.6 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi75 min 38°F 33°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi75 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 40°F1029.2 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi69 min S 2.9 G 2.9 35°F 1029.4 hPa29°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi59 min 42°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F87%1028.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi47 minSSW 410.00 miFair38°F32°F79%1028.7 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi43 minS 13 G 2210.00 miFair41°F35°F79%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W5W3W3W4W4CalmW4W4W3W4SW5S7SW10SW9SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Damons Point, North River, Massachusetts
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Damons Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:29 AM EST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM EST     8.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:03 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EST     7.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.82.21.21.32.23.65.47.28.38.47.76.44.72.91.40.91.32.54.15.97.47.97.56.5

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:01 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:20 PM EST     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:45 PM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.800.70.91.110.5-0-0.4-0.8-1-1.2-1.1-0.40.40.8110.70.1-0.3-0.7-0.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.