NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 040439 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1139 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023


AVIATION

Low level troughing will sustain areas of IFR based clouds, mainly from PTK northward through at least 08 or 09Z. This low level troughing will weaken during the course of the morning and will allow ceilings to be predominately MVFR after 09 or 10Z. An upper level short wave tracking across SW Lower Mi has sustained some lingering showers. This forcing will weaken during the early morning hours, allowing a gradual end to the lingering showers. Low level cyclonic flow and ample moisture trapped under a low level inversion should sustain the MVFR cloud bases well into the day Monday.

For DTW...Observational trends continue to suggest IFR ceilings will remain north of metro through the morning. Model soundings do however suggest ceilings will fluctuate across the 2k foot threshold.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION...

Main area of rainfall associated with vorticity center will be lifting gradually northeast out of the forecast area as this forecast period begins late this afternoon. Thereafter, just expect scattered rain and/or snow showers to pivot back into the area into this evening within wraparound moisture around the base of this system. Any lingering precipitation will end by around midnight with dry conditions then holding through Monday. A slightly cooler air mass will build into the area in the wake of this disturbance with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 on Monday and lows down into the 20s Monday night.

The next shortwave disturbance, a clipper system dropping southeast from southwestern Canada, has trended a bit south as compared to yesterday and now just brushes southern parts of the forecast area with light snow/flurries perhaps mixed with sprinkles from late Monday night into Tuesday. Between marginal surface temperatures and light precipitation intensity/amounts, do not expect much in the way of accumulations, if any, from this system at this point.

Upper troughing expands a bit with the passage of this clipper with cool conditions persisting into Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. At the same time, the upper pattern shifts into a rather progressive mode with this trough shifting steadily east into late week as upper ridging expands eastward into the region. This will promote highs back into the 40s Thursday and upper 40s/50s Friday and Saturday as ridging hold in place to some degree as the next major surge of shortwave energy begins to carve out a significant upper trough to the west.

There will only be a small chance of light rain/snow showers around Wednesday night as this milder air first begins to dislodge the cooler air mass in place. Otherwise, the next potential chance for significant precipitation will hold off until next weekend. This period is highly in question as models differ quite considerably on how (or even if) the main storm system within the western trough ejects into vicinity.

MARINE...

Weak low pressure tracks across the southern Great Lakes today, bringing rain to the area, with a few snow showers developing over the northern part of the lake as temperatures drop overnight.
Northeast winds of 15-20 knots back to become northwest behind the low on Monday, decreasing down to 10-15 knots. Gusts will touch 25 knots at the highest, but will similarly decrease throughout the day Monday. Waves will build to borderline Small Craft Advisory criteria overnight tonight, with occasional waves of 5-6 feet being the primary concern. An Advisory is in effect for the Outer Saginaw Bay and the nearshore areas from Port Austin to Harbor Beach. Active weather pattern then continues through the week as a series of weak systems moves across the Great Lakes. Impacts still look to be relatively minor at this time, with the primary hazard to come out of these systems being repeated chances for precipitation.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,