Manchester, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, MI

June 20, 2024 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM
Moonrise 7:33 PM   Moonset 3:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017

Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201502 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1102 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas along and south of the M-59 corridor as heat indices rise into the mid to upper 90s for the fourth day in a row. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions expected for northern locations.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather today with isolated damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph and localized torrential downpours possible. Main thunderstorm window is from noon to 9 pm.

- The heat and humidity builds back into the entire region Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the week as well.

UPDATE

Update this morning is focused on convective trends for the afternoon, as the SWODY1 Marginal Risk has been expanded westward from the northern metro Detroit suburbs to the Ohio border. Overall, the message varies little from the previous several days of convection, although an added forcing mechanism exists owing to a weak front that has penetrated inland through the morning. This boundary arcs from roughly GRR to TOL, and may be an initiation point for thunderstorms as early as noon when surface destabilization is expected to occur.
Added forcing from differential heating/lake breeze boundaries arrive later in the afternoon, adding more opportunities for updraft initiation and increasing coverage. Once thunderstorms do initiate, they will have potential to become strong to severe as hot/humid conditions once again support loaded precipitation cores and downburst potential with gusts of 60+ mph. Torrential downpours will be another primary concern, with more details in the Hydrology section. Main timing window for thunderstorms is from noon to 9pm.



PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

AVIATION...

A subtle mid level short wave feature and enhanced convergence along a stationary front combined with weak elevated instability has supported some pre dawn convection from FNT to mbS. The passage of this feature will lead to a period of subsidence through at least mid day. A frontal boundary, enhanced by convective outflow, is forecast to become stationary across the metro Detroit area this afternoon. This will provide a focus for afternoon/evening convection as instability builds through diurnal heating. Timing and coverage of convection within pattern of moderate instability yet weakly forced atmosphere again carries a good deal of uncertainty.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Scattered thunderstorms are again forecast to develop with the increase in instability through daytime heating.
While coverage may initially be scattered, there again is a chance for thunderstorms to organize into clusters and thus lead to an increase in coverage across the airspace. Available guidance suggest a possible earlier timing of convective initiation compared to yesterday, possibly as early as 17 or 18Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

DISCUSSION...

As expected, the anomalous ridge parked over the Mid-Atlantic and occupying most of eastern CONUS has broadened longitudinally over the past 24 hours. This is evidenced by 20.00Z RAOB H5 geopotential heights of 599 dam at KPIT (WFO Pittsburgh), KOKX (WFO Upton/NYC), and KLWX (WFO Sterling). Although none of the coarser 00Z models resolved a 600 dam center, it's certainly possible that such magnitude existed between the three observation sites prior to the westward migration of the ridge centroid into Appalachia.

Initial GOES and ceilometer data affirm healthy coverage of nocturnal cloud cover which should, once again, hamper nighttime cooling rates. Made very minor upward revisions to MinTs this morning, outside the lakeshores. As discussed throughout the past several days, a low-level anticyclonic gyre builds over western Lake Huron this morning. This eventually leads to the development of a 1030 mb surface high which then drives a backdoor cold front into The Thumb area and points further southwest. The northeast flow draws down slightly cooler Canadian air and will be partially augmented by sub-60F water temperatures over much of Lake Huron.
Main question with this boundary remains the extent of inland penetration and the resultant cooling effect for post-frontal locations. Opted to go slightly more bullish with the frontal progression in the outgoing forecast by bringing the thermal gradient closer to the M-59 corridor. Prior evening update to the Heat Advisory will stand with the more marginal counties being Livingston, Oakland, and Macomb. Best opportunity to approach 100F heat indices for those northern three counties should be along the extreme southern extent of the boundaries where the advection of cooler air comes up short (or is more muted). Today will be the fourth consecutive day of heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100F for the remaining locations within the Heat Advisory as dewpoints linger in the lower 70s.

PoP forecast continues to be a major challenge with numerous periods of convection potential. Made first-period changes to account for ongoing line of sub-severe storms between I-94 and I-96 while another cluster tracks toward/into the Tri-Cities. Outside of the FGEN forcing along the inbound frontal slope, additional surrounding convection will be tied to what has become a rather familiar high- CAPE/low-shear quasi-uncapped environment. Further contributions to ascent offered by the reconfiguration of the ridge and a southward push of height falls across the UP and northern Lower MI creates a more favorable corridor for CVA during the afternoon hours with passing shortwave perturbations aloft. Conditions and coverage are less certain with any outflow boundary interactions and differential heating boundaries. Main threat with any strong to severe storms will be short-lived damaging gusts, especially with well-loaded core releases in the form of wet microbursts.

The system drifts into The Southeast by Saturday and could interact with another ridge over The Southwest. The deterministic NAM, GFS, and ECMWF remain in decent agreement with a zonal upper level pattern which moderates height changes. Meanwhile, another warm advection/frontal surge lifts back into Lower Michigan marked by H9 temps in the mid 20C range (potentially higher). Expect further refinements to highs Saturday, dependent on the northern edge of the realized thermal gradient. Regardless, most areas should see highs back into the lower 90s with increasing humidity. A cold front driven by a progressive shortwave swinging through the Upper Midwest provides some relief Sunday with showers and storms. This precedes somewhat more seasonable conditions and dry weather Monday before the heat (sans humidity) returns Tuesday.

MARINE...

Some breakup in the weather pattern occurs today as high pressure builds across Ontario which forces a cold front south through Lake Huron. This will cause winds to turn northerly but gusts remain largely below 20 knots. Warm temperatures remain across region which adds stability over the waters helping keep wave heights minimized as well. A stronger cold front looks to be on track for the second half of the weekend however, and wind speeds then could reach or exceed 25 knots with waves building to around 4 feet. Small craft advisories may be needed.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of SE MI today. The most intense thunderstorms will have the potential to produce highly localized rainfall amounts of 1- 2 inches in a 30-60 min period. Thunderstorm training (repeated thunderstorms) can also provide the chance see highly localized totals of 1-2+ inches. Uncertainty in specifics of location and exact timing for any flooding precludes the issuance of an flood watches. Additional storms with highly localized flooding potential will again be possible on Thursday during the afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ068>070-075-076- 082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi57 minENE 5.1G7 84°F 30.2375°F
45200 46 mi47 min7.8G9.7 81°F 80°F30.2675°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KARB ANN ARBOR MUNI,MI 16 sm63 minSSW 038 smClear84°F75°F74%30.28
KADG LENAWEE COUNTY,MI 20 sm31 minNE 11G1510 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm 88°F72°F59%30.29
KJXN JACKSON COUNTYREYNOLDS FIELD,MI 24 sm60 minS 0410 smPartly Cloudy88°F72°F59%30.30
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Wind History graph: ARB
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Detroit, MI,




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