Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, MI

DISCUSSION

Ongoing convection ahead of a cold front has remained below severe thresholds for most locations, with stronger storms producing gusts around 45 mph and pea sized hail. One isolated report of hail to an inch was observed in Oakland County. Any severe weather chances will hold with the main line now located across Port Huron to about Adrian, with severe thunderstorm chances waning around or after 5PM EDT. Damaging wind gusts remains the main threat with any stronger thunderstorm, with a tornado and/or hail as secondary concerns.
Please see the morning update for additional details.

Cold air advection in the wake of a cold front will set the stage for below normal temperatures through the middle of the week.
Overnight, temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s but hold in the low to mid 40s closer to the MI/OH border and within the urban Metro region. A diffuse area of high pressure supports dry weather for most locations tomorrow with very steep low level lapse rates producing healthy strato-cu coverage through the afternoon and early evening hours. An isolated brief shower cannot be ruled out given these lapse rates but they would remain weak with mid-leveling capping in place and shallow moisture depths, which are sandwiched between the dry air aloft and well mixed boundary layer below.
Clouds erode overnight returning temperatures back into the 30s, the coolest of which will be found within the Tri-Cities where frost development will be possible.

High pressure takes hold on Monday bringing dry conditions with temperatures capped in the 50s. A low pressure clipper system/mid level wave arrives Tuesday into Wednesday morning bringing increasingly likely chances for rain showers. Passage of the wave will reinforce upper-level troughing which supports the cooler temperatures at least through the midweek period. Discrepancies arise between models regarding the low pressure system which will start to slow through the Ohio Valley and Appalachia region as the trough deepens, which will impact the west-east phase of the upstream ridge which eventually fills back in across the Great Lakes through the late week period or weekend. This will modulate temperatures back to normal or slightly above normal values once the ridge builds in but will also bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms with the building moisture.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories continue through the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front as brisk southwest flow persists, producing wind gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The ongoing passage of a cold front will maintain a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms that will travel through Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie into the early evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with this line which will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots, small hail, and/or an isolated waterspout. Passage of this front will back winds from west-southwest to northwest late this evening. Diffuse high pressure builds in in the wake of the front will diminish wind speeds overnight. Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening across Lake Huron, but otherwise ligther winds hold into Monday as high pressure strengthens in intensity.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

AVIATION...

Height falls in advance of sharp, digging shortwave maximum is leading to synoptic scale ascent over Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Instability is sufficient for scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity this afternoon between 18-21z. Decided to go with TEMPO for TSRA at KFNT southward through the Detroit terminals.
A period of midcloud at/around 050-060 is expected in the wake of the thunderstorm activity this evening with VFR overnight. Strong midlevel subsidence amidst a cool and dry air mass will support quiet VFR conditions Sunday.

D21/DTW Convection...Numerous thunderstorm activity is expected in the airspace between 19-21z. Included a TEMPO at DTW. Low potential for severe at any one particular location this afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon, and low tonight, Sunday.

* Moderate to high for thunderstorms between 19Z and 21Z today.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.