Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 9:44 PM   Moonset 6:13 AM

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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 251953 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 353 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions bring another cold night tonight and then a warming trend with highs in the 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night with a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms through Saturday morning.

- Breezy southwest winds develop Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.

- There is a chance for additional thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for northwest portions of the forecast area. An isolated storm will be capable of producing hail to 1 inch in diameter and gusts up to 60 mph with storm motion from southwest to northeast at 45 mph.

DISCUSSION

We have issued a Freeze Warning for interior sections and a Frost Advisory for the counties bordering Lake Huron for tonight. The airmass will be modified a bit from last night and return flow begins late tonight as the surface ridge begins to move east, but model soundings still show an very dry airmass through 12Z Friday with precipitable water down near 0.15 inches. This should allow temperatures to drop quickly like last night. There could be some wind picking up by 12Z...but we still expect temperatures to drop to around 30 in the warning area and lower 30s in the advisory.

- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night

Return flow increases Friday but it will take a while to moisten the column of the very dry atmosphere and showers will probably hold off until Friday night although clouds will be in the increase in the afternoon.

A large area of isentropic ascent and strong warm advection pattern combine with the arrival of deep moisture to bring increasing chances for rain Friday night and elevated instability should be enough for isolated thunder and some heavier downpours late Friday night.

Low confidence at present in convective trends for Later Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A conditionally favorable environment for organized convection will be present given MUCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg as moisture climbs in strong SW flow, and deep layer shear values climbing to 35-45 knots thanks to favorable juxtaposition of the low and mid-level jets. Threat is obviously dependent on whether Convective Initiation (CI) occurs. Frontal forcing is not overly impressive and the upper shortwave remains to the west; hence limited synoptic/sub-synoptic forcing for upward vertical motion. If storms can develop, they have some organization potential per the SPC Marginal outlooks. That said, low-level shear will be mostly be boundary-parallel which tends to favors rapid upscale growth into an outflow dominant convective line. It therefore makes sense that a somewhat greater risk will remain to the northwest where CI is more likely to be. Regardless of convective outcome, it will be a breezy day with gusts well into the 30 mph range.

For Sunday...the warm front is expected to be over Central Lower MI and with it a second round of showers and storms is possible given MUCAPE values north of 1000 J/kg.

Showers then expand across Lower MI Sunday Night into Monday as the cold front drifts south before clearing the area Monday evening. CAPE values on the ECMWF and GFS still look to be above 500 J/kg so thunder continues to be possible.

Dry conditions expected for the Tuesday night timeframe as period of surface ridging drifts over the area. After this, forecast predictability for the finer details drops, but the general theme seems to be mean troughing aloft with a relatively wet and unsettled pattern for the rest of the work week.

For the weekend into early next week, 850mb temperatures climb into the teens weekend, yielding surface temperatures in the 70s with even 80+ not out of the question in spots. into early next week causing temperatures to climb into the 70s with low (around 10 percent)
chances that areas exceed 80 degrees.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to maintain light flow with an easterly component through Friday morning. The high shifts east Friday into Friday night as strong low pressure moves from the central Plains to the upper Midwest, eventually crossing Lake Superior on Saturday.
The strengthening pressure gradient between these features will result in southeasterly flow ramping up late Friday, peaking late Friday night into Saturday morning, then veering southerly on Saturday while gradually weakening through the day. This will also usher in a mild airmass, which will maintain very stable conditions over the waters. Latest guidance suggests a brief window for gusts approaching gale force roughly 09-15Z Saturday. There is also a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

AVIATION...

Surface high pressure centered over Ontario this afternoon maintains deep static stability and limited cloud cover through the TAF period. Light easterly flow (less than 10 knots) deviates to the northeast at mbS and to the southeast in the DTW corridor as lake breezes push inland. More uniform easterly flow is then restored late this evening alongside nocturnal cooling with a general uptick in wind speeds Friday morning toward 10 knots as the pressure gradient strengthens in advance of the next low pressure system.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ047-053-054- 060>062-068-069-075.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ048-049-055-063- 070-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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