Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:11 PM EDT (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:39PMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 212307
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
707 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Aviation
Remaining isolated showers should largely miss terminals early in
the forecast with a cold front then sweeping activity southeast of
the area. With maintain a lowerVFR deck along this front, but
generally expect CIGS above 10kft this forecast with a trend to
clearing skies on Thursday. Westerly flow will veer to northwest and
north with FROPA and remain so as high pressure begins to build in
for the remainder of the forecast.

For dtw... Isolated shra tsra will shift south of terminal by 00z.

Cigs may occasional fill in AOB 5kft this evening, but generally
expect a trend to higher level CIGS which will clear out Thursday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in periodic ceilings at or below 5000 ft this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 320 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019
discussion...

surface dew pts have begun to slowly drop this afternoon as mixing
depths increased, and surface winds have already veered around to
west. 45-50 knots of effective shear tracking through saginaw
bay central lake huron has been able to support some weak low level
rotation with the low topped thunderstorms moving through southern
saginaw county and the northern thumb region, and this activity will
have to be watched as it exists through the eastern thumb region, as
mlcapes are still hovering around 1000 j kg. None-the-less, the
window for activity and certainly coverage is dwindling as dew pts
lower, along with peak heating passing.

Good consensus amongst NAM rap regional gem hrrr with the MCV coming
out off southern iowa will dampen track far enough south tonight to
miss southeast michigan, and will just carry low chance pops for
showers toward the ohio border. The mid high clouds spilling north of
the border should at least alleviate fog concerns tonight.

Upper level low (552 dam at 500 mb) near james bay will track into
quebec tomorrow, with trough axis extending southwest into the
great lake region, right into the day on Friday. Cooler canadian
air spilling in, with 850 mb temps lowering into mid to upper single
numbers will lead to pleasant and dry weather as sprawling high
pressure (1025 mb) builds in through the first half of the weekend.

Southern periphery of a surface high pressure system and advancing
upper-level ridge will bring a continued period of dry weather
through the weekend as northeast to easterly flow holds temperatures
to below seasonal norms. Long range models are advertising sunny to
partly cloudy skies due to the increased subsidence from high
pressure, however, flow off of lake huron may produce more low-level
cloud cover relative to what is advertised, especially over the
thumb into the tri-cities. Low-levels of the atmosphere will however
remain very dry as cool canadian air is pooled into michigan with
1000-500 mb rh values sitting around 30 percent.

Push of a warm front strengthening LLJ will pool in excess moisture
into michigan and will bring warm and humid conditions marked by
temperatures in the 80s and dew points climbing back into the 60s to
potentially lower 70s across the metro region. Increase in moisture
will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday through
Wednesday. Too much divergence is noted in long-range models
regarding potential pops on Thursday, tied to the passage of a cold
front, but higher confidence to see a cool off Thursday onwards.

Marine...

window for possible thunderstorms exists mainly over southern lake
huron through this evening. This risk ends as a cold front lifts
across the region into tonight. Post-frontal northwest winds will
strengthen during this time as cooler air arrives. This will bring a
period with wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots over lake huron. The
combination of the gusty winds and building waves will lead to
hazardous conditions for small craft on the nearshore waters of lake
huron through early Thursday. Northerly winds will gradually
diminish on Thursday as the gradient eases. High pressure building
into the region will then maintain modest winds and wave action
Friday into the next weekend. The colder air moving across the warmer
waters may prove favorable for waterspout development, particularly
late Thursday night and early Friday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until noon edt Thursday for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi54 min W 11 G 15
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi52 min W 7 78°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi19 minW 610.00 miFair78°F66°F69%1011.6 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi19 minNNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NW4CalmCalmNW3SW4W3NW4NW5NW7N6N7CalmW4W7W7W9W9W10W14
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1 day agoS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SW4SW6S6S5SW9SW9SW9S9S4SW11
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2 days agoSW8SW9SW4SW5SW6W9W8W3CalmW3NW5W5NW3W3NW5Calm34W5SW6W8S4S5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.