Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday October 1, 2020 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 011112 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 712 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AVIATION.

Onset of daytime heating will again prompt the steady expansion of VFR stratocumulus throughout Southeast Michigan today. The combination of a corresponding increase in lapse rates given a cold mid level environment and the arrival of a cold front will result in scattered to numerous showers for the afternoon and evening periods. Instability will prove sufficient to support isolated thunderstorms as well. Pre-frontal winds prevailing from the west-southwest. Wind shift to northwesterly with a brief increase in lower stratus with the frontal passage this evening. A drying northwest flow will favor a gradual clearing of this cloud deck overnight.

For DTW . Expanding coverage of stratocu with daytime heating will carry cigs near 5000 ft through the late day period. This will also bring a high coverage of showers, with the potential thunderstorms mainly mid afternoon through early evening. Wind shift to northwesterly accompanies a cold frontal passage by late evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet this morning. High this afternoon and evening.

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 336 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

DISCUSSION .

Amplified long wave pattern remains in place with strong ridging up along the west coast and troughing over the eastern conus. Under the backdrop of broad cyclonic flow, a cold front will drop through the region this afternoon while a shortwave rounding the base of the trough interacts with the front to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Though not as favorable of an environment as Wednesday with yesterday's front forcing better moisture profiles out of the region, 500mb cold pool around -25C will keep strong low and mid level lapse rates in place. Slightly cooler boundary layer will keep CAPE a bit more at bay today with most models generally under 500 J/kg. They do hint at a brief window of enhanced instability as the front picks up the more unstable air over Lake MI and pulls it through the area during peak heating. Could see a few hours of better thunderstorm coverage owning to this unstable plume advecting across the area. Weaker wind field in place today with RAP soundings showing sub 20 knots winds through 500 mb so not expecting any thunderstorms to produce much wind.

Northerly flow behind this front will usher in the next surge of cold air into the region by tonight with 850mb temps going negative. Dewpoints down into the 30s will allow some cooler locations to have lows in the mid 30s tonight. Lake clouds off Huron will keep the Thumb a bit warmer and could even see a continuation of showers as convergence over the lake is shifted southward and clips the Thumb. Will not be mentioning frost for tonight as gradient flow will likely keep winds high enough to mitigate notable frost development.

Troughing remains Friday into the weekend but the next trough axis looks to hold off til Sunday so should be dry for the most part outside of lingering lake effect showers for the Thumb with continued northerly flow. Gradient weakens with surface ridging sliding into the Midwest and Great Lakes as coldest air settles over the region Friday night. Clearing skies and calm winds should result in ideal radiational cooling conditions and likely frost development.

Though the broad trough lingers over the region heading into the new week, we'll see some periods of return flow out ahead of the digging troughs. This will allow temps to rebound back to the 60s after the several day stretch holding in the 50s. A wave/trough on Sunday will bring the next chance of showers before mid level shortwave ridge and high pressure at the surface works into the area Sunday night into Tuesday. Next trough will progress through the area mid week.

MARINE .

Westerly winds rotate to northwesterly late this morning/afternoon and eventually to northerly by late this evening as another cold front drops south across the lakes. While wind gusts are expected to generally stay around 20kts, or less, throughout the day and night, long fetch over Lake Huron will allow waves to build around the Thumb. This colder airmass settles over the Great Lakes through the weekend keeping conditions unsettled with the potential for waterspouts in Lake Huron lingering through at least the end of the workweek.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi43 min W 6 G 9.9 55°F 1012.2 hPa43°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi61 min WSW 7 G 11 53°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi68 minW 610.00 miFair52°F46°F80%1012.5 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi68 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds51°F45°F80%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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