Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:47PM Friday January 28, 2022 5:06 PM EST (22:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 1:44PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 282110 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 410 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

DISCUSSION.

During early afternoon, the primary band/s of lake effect into the Thumb maintained intensity while migrating steadily northward along the Lake Huron shoreline. This helped keep accumulation expectations generally below advisory threshold. Now, the recent radar depiction shows weaker intensity and less banded organization leading up to press time. The diminishing trend then continues into the evening as the inverted trough fills over the south half of the lake, although this process is occurring more slowly compared to model timing. Additional accumulation up to 1 inch is possible right on the shoreline based on current activity brushing more north to south before dissipating.

Progression of the upper level short wave ridge carries surface high pressure farther across Lower MI tonight. This promotes erosion of any remaining lake stratocu with light and variable wind for several hours of open sky and strong radiational cooling. Fresh snow cover across SE MI becomes the final ingredient for below zero low temperatures considering how firmly rooted arctic air is across the region as demonstrated by today's highs coming up well short of 20 outside of metro Detroit.

After a below zero start to Saturday, the low level thermal trough begins an eastward migration by afternoon through Saturday night. Surface high pressure is forced into Ontario by the next upper level short wave arriving from central Canada. This system initiates SW flow into Lower MI to begin the process of warm advection that finally lifts temperatures out of the arctic doldrums but still below normal for late January. The other question for this time period is the potential for light snow within the isentropic ascent leading the wave. Model depictions of 850-700 mb theta-e advection look capable when combined with a boost from the upper jet exit region. Model mean RH still outreaches QPF well to the south which is indicative of a moisture starved warm advection pattern, further supported by low level streamlines originating from the minimally modified high pressure near the Gulf coast. We continued to help guidance POPs higher into the chance category while maintaining QPF that would result in accumulation less than an inch north of I-69 before ending Sunday morning.

This system is followed quickly by the next stage of warm advection later Sunday through Monday. Beginning from double digit low temperatures Monday morning, the pattern gives hope for a run toward the freezing mark Monday afternoon. Preferred model solutions direct associated precipitation well north of SE MI as an extension of moisture starved warm advection. Moisture pooling along the trailing cold front brings improved potential but light intensity and in the form of rain with surface temperatures making a run at 40.

Passage of this front Tuesday night sets the stage for the mid week event that continues to show potential for a lengthy period of winter weather. Today's extended model runs show some convergence of solutions on a colder outcome for SE MI, or one that at least offers a smaller mixed precip footprint in the blended guidance database. As confidence increases in the position of the bulk frontal zone, additional refinement can be made on binning precipitation type to the QPF field. A strong draw of Gulf moisture into the Ohio valley is shown to result in impressive 2 to 3 day totals across the southern Great Lakes from late Wednesday into early Friday of next week.

MARINE.

High pressure ridge translating across the Midwest supports light northerly flow holding through much of the evening. Generally dry conditions expected aside from light lake effect snow showers across southern Lake Huron tapering off by sunset. Eastward progression of the ridge axis and approaching weak clipper system support a directional shift to southwest flow by tomorrow afternoon, with snow chances increasing late tomorrow night into Sunday. Southeast trajectory of the disturbance keeps better wind field to our south, keeping light winds in place through the weekend. More active pattern arrives early next week, supporting several rounds of precipitation and renewed chances for elevated wind and wave action.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1148 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

AVIATION .

Cold north-northeast flow off Lake Huron leading to 2500-4500 foot cigs cigs across portions of southeast Michigan, with embedded streaks of flurries/light mvfr snow showers downwind. A few flurries/light snow showers still probably briefly impacting southern taf sites this afternoon. For this evening, low level wind speeds will be decreasing as s surface ridge tracks into the Central Great Lakes, and this should allow for a decreasing areal extent of clouds, closer to Lake Huron. As such, have forecasted clearing this evening. The exception looks to be KDET where the favorable north- northeast trajectory off Lake Huron persists.

Mostly-clear to clear skies then expected into Saturday morning, but will then have to watch for some low clouds coming off Lake Michigan as light westerly flow develops with the retreating surface ridge/high to support some borderline VFR/MVFR cloud development.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium in ceilings aob 5kft into early evening, then low.

* High confidence in precip type all snow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . MV AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi48 min E 7G8.9 18°F 1022.8 hPa12°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi66 min NE 9.9G12 17°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last 24 hrSW7
G15
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi73 minN 1010.00 miA Few Clouds20°F4°F50%1024.6 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi73 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast18°F6°F59%1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW9W8SW6W6W7W4N11N10N12N13
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1 day agoSW7SW7S7SW7SW7SW5SW4SW6S4SW7SW7S6SW8S9SW8SW8SW13
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2 days ago0NW6W5NW8NW10
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NW11NW6NW6NW6NW10NW4W4W4W4W3SW4W5W4NW7W3W6SW9SW9S8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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