Tuesday, December10, 2019
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:41 PM EST (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 102331 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 631 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION.

A gradually drying and increasingly stable environment with the loss of diurnal support will leave simply a limited coverage of light snow showers or flurries across southeast Michigan early tonight. A corresponding reduction in lake stratus expected through this time. Renewed east-northeastward expansion of lake Michigan moisture will then occur overnight and Wednesday morning as cold air advection strengthens again. This will provide another window for possible development of snow showers locally, particularly from PTK northward given the prevailing trajectory. MVFR to IFR restrictions within a localized heavier bursts, otherwise prevailing VFR expected Wednesday. Gusty westerly conditions will emerge during the morning period, reaching near 25 knots at times during the day.

For DTW . Lingering pockets of light snow showers/flurries ending late this evening. A secondary window Wednesday morning for possible activity remains too limited to highlight attm, with greater potential residing north of metro. Westerly winds /260-280 direction/ turning gusty Wednesday, reaching near 25 knots at times.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight. Medium Wednesday.

* High in precip being snow.

* Medium for westerly wind gusts reaching crosswind threshold Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 331 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION . Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue to make inroads into southeast lower, mainly along and north of I94, on a cold westerly flow through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Most activity will be light but there maybe a few moderate snow showers that could produce a tenth or two of accumulation before sunset. Winds will gradually back to the southwest during the night which will shift any snow shower activity to mainly along and north of the M59 corridor. Increasing influx of drier air will result in a decrease in coverage and intensity of lake effect snow showers. Southwest flow trajectory will also keep lake effect clouds north of the Detroit area. Winds will remain up and gusty keeping lows cold but more uniformed in the mid to upper teens.

A surface trough marking another reenforcement of arctic air will push through Wednesday morning. Though the airmass will be even drier, there will be enough convergence and low level instability to squeeze out some flurry action. Clouds cover will gradually decrease throughout the afternoon as highs barely recover to the upper teens north to upper 20s south.

Wednesday night skies will clear and winds will go light as high pressure center slides through. Lows will depend on how quick mid and high level clouds move in ahead of next system. Guidance suggesting lows will bottom out in the lower teens before clouds advect in after midnight, but could easily crater into the single digits if skies remain clearer longer.

Southerly flow around departing high pressure and ahead of weak surface and mid level wave passing across the northern lakes will help temperatures back into the 30s. This system will bring mainly cloudy skies for the area with a slight chance of light snow showers or flurries across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. Friday will remain dry with readings slightly above normal Friday as overall flow remains southerly ahead of a weekend system.

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE .

A secondary cold front pushes through the lakes this evening and tonight, bringing a renewed surge of arctic air that will increase instability over the water and stronger southwesterly winds that gradually veer westerly through the day Wednesday. A Gale Warning has been issued for northern Lake Huron where the increased fetch and better cold advection will bring the best chance for marginal gales late Wednesday morning and afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore marine areas from Saginaw Bay to Port Sanilac. Potential for snow squalls remains for Lake Huron through tonight into Wednesday with rapidly reduced visibility possible in the heaviest activity. Freezing spray may also become a concern on Wednesday for Lake Huron. Conditions then quiet down on Wednesday night as surface ridging passes over the region, but this relief will be short-lived as another low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes on Thursday and brings an increase in southerly flow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-441-442.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRC MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi77 min W 11 G 13 28°F 1021.7 hPa15°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi41 min W 7 G 12 27°F 1021.3 hPa (+3.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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SW9
G15
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G28
W18
G31
W12
G18
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G23
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G19
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G22
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G14
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G12
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G13
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G11
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G15
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G14
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G16
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G15
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G18
SW11
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SE5
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G9
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G8
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G13
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G14
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G16
SW7
G11
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G14
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G16
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G17
SW9
G14
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G20
SW15
G23
S10
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi48 minWNW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds23°F14°F68%1022.2 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi48 minWNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy23°F12°F65%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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NW10NW9NW7NW10NW11NW7W12W10W11
1 day agoSW7SW10SW8
G16
SW7SW6S6S5S4S4S5S5S5S6S6S9SW6S5SW11SW11SW11SW8SW10SW9SW11
2 days agoS3S3S3S3S3S6S5S5S5S6S6S6S7SW5S5SW9SW9SW10
G17
S11SW12
G18
SW8SW7SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.