Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday March 28, 2020 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:42AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 281700 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

AVIATION.

Se Mi will remain north of a warm front through the duration of the afternoon and evening. Some increase in the easterly flow has offered some subtle improvements in ceilings heights the last few hours. Deepening low pressure lifting into Iowa this afternoon will increase moisture transport north of the surface warm front and into Se Mi. This will sustain IFR and LIFR stratus through the duration of the afternoon and through much of the night. Subsidence in the wake of the departing mid level short wave has diminished the coverage of showers. As the surface low lifts into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, strengthening southerly flow across the Ohio Valley will drive additional moisture into Se Mi. This will result in an expansion of showers across the area. An influx of instability aloft will also support scattered thunderstorms, primarily late this evening and overnight.

For DTW . Suspect it will be difficult for ceilings to be able to rise much above 500 feet today considering the abundance of low level moisture lifting north of the surface warm front. The sfc warm front will likely struggle to lift into Metro Detroit overnight as the storm system occludes to the west of the region. Decent elevated instability overnight will still pose the risk of thunderstorms, primarily in the 05 to 09Z time frame.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceiling at or below 5000 ft through Sunday.

* Moderate in thunderstorms tonight.

* Low in cigs below 200 ft and/or vsby below 1/2 mile tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1052 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE .

A surface warm front remains stalled about 50 miles south of the MI border this morning. Thunderstorms continue to initial along this boundary while tracking eastward around 60 mph. The elevated portion of the warm front resides over SE MI with widespread shower activity ongoing as a shortwave drifts along the boundary. There should a decreasing trend in areal coverage to more scattered this afternoon as the first wave exits and we wait for the next wave and surface based triple point to lift through this evening. Not expecting much in the way of thunder through the first part of the day as 12Z DTX sounding shows deep warm layer (10C at 900mb) just above the inversion minimizing lapse rates and instability.

Moving forward we are continuing to assess severe weather potential for the evening hours. Latest suite of model soundings still want to hold the warm front just south of the MI border but there is a short window between about 00-06Z where the triple point on the occluded front tries to clips far SE MI (generally south of I94) which would increase chances of surface based storms. 1249Z Day 1 update by SPC continues to supports this thinking as well keeping us in the Marginal Risk area. Regardless, there remains a risk for elevated storms to produce severe hail in that same time window. Brief/weak tornado potential is non-zero but tied closely to the front making it north into the area. More to come with the 4pm forecast update.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

DISCUSSION .

Pattern of light to moderate rain - some pockets of heavy rain and maybe a rumble of thunder - continues through the balance of the morning as weak waves of low pressure ripple along the elevated frontal surface draped across the region with support from upper jet forcing. A shortwave generated from last night's convection over Missouri will release ENEward and lift across the southern Great Lakes early today, eventually ushering out the widespread precip across lower MI. Subsidence in the wake of this wave will help reduce coverage of showers for the afternoon period. Low stratus does remain prevalent through the day as the surface warm front lingers just south of the Ohio border. High temps similar to yesterday, in the 50s for most areas but 40s along the immediate lakeshore given the onshore easterly/northeasterly winds in place.

Low pressure over the central plains deepens today in response to a midlevel closed low lifting northeast from the Rockies, reaching the Great Lakes as a stacked system on Sunday. Ascent ahead of this system will lead to more showers Saturday evening and overnight as the warm front heads north. Midlevel lapse rates improve slightly during this time to around 6 to 7 deg C/km to provide marginal elevated instability, therefore scattered thunderstorms will be possible. High-res guidance keeps Michigan north of the surface warm front late into the evening with cool easterly flow off Lake Erie helping slow its northward advancement. This will be the main limiting factor for severe potential as a strong low-level inversion will keep most storms elevated in nature. However, given deep-layer shear of around 70 kt, any stronger/organized updrafts will have a chance to rotate which lends a chance for large hail up to an inch. A brief tornado can't be ruled out overnight, especially if the warm front does make better inroads into the southern counties to allow for convection rooted at the surface. This threat remains limited generally south of I-94. SPC has maintained the marginal risk for severe weather over all of SE Michigan.

The cold front quickly clears the area by 12z Sunday morning, and ushers out showers/storms. By this point, the low will be a mature 992mb occluded system centered over Wisconsin. Strong southwest wind ensues Sunday given the tight gradient/momentum field in place and modest isentropic downglide. The system dry slot has a short residence time during the morning before low-level moisture wraps around and moves back in. This will lead to mostly cloudy skies and help mitigate the mixing/wind potential to some degree, but still looking at winds in the 50 to 60 kt range in the mixed layer, translating to surface gusts on the order of 35 to 45 mph which ramp up during the morning and persist into the evening hours. Some light showers will likely accompany this moisture Sunday. Highs Sunday will occur early in the day before cold advection sets in - temps in the upper 50s will fall to the 40s by evening.

Monday will still be a bit breezy and cool as the low gradually weakens as it tracks through southern Ontario and Quebec. Little change in the air mass through the middle of the week as the jet is positioned to our south and flow remains relatively weak overhead. Just a chance for some showers on Wednesday into Thursday as a series of weak waves pass overhead, otherwise generally quiet weather continues through the week.

MARINE .

Low pressure will travel northeast from the Plains and will center over the Midwest this evening, allowing a warm front to push across the southern Great Lakes. Passage of the warm front will bring rain continued rain showers this morning, along with thunderstorms, some strong, late this evening. Aside from stronger bursts of wind gusts tied to strong thunderstorms, wind direction will remain easterly, the strongest of which will be seen across northern Lake Huron.

Otherwise, wind direction to then veer southeast and southwest throughout Sunday following the passage of a cold front. A strengthening pressure gradient behind the front along with some mixing of strong low-level winds to the surface will produce a quick uptick in sustained wind speeds and gusts late Sunday morning. Strongest gusts are projected to impact Lake Erie up to Lake St Clair with the potential to see gusts anywhere between 35 to 40 knots through the day. Additional concerns for stronger wind gusts are noted for Saginaw Bay as the southwest fetch funnels down the Bay. As a result, a Gale Watch is now in effect for the aforementioned locations. Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore zones along Lake Huron will also be considered within the standard 24 hour window, as the low pressure nears.

HYDROLOGY .

Widespread light to moderate rain continues through the morning hours today across most of SE Michigan with rainfall totals generally ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, though some higher totals will be possible where pockets of heavier rates move through. Breaks in the precip are expected during the afternoon hours before a warm front lifts in and brings additional scattered showers this evening into the overnight period tonight. This period lends a better chance for some thunderstorms. Another half inch or so of rain is expected across the area with higher amounts possible where any thunderstorms track. Minor flooding of roads, low-lying and poor drainage areas, as well as small streams, will be possible. Storm total amounts from last night into early Sunday will range from about 1 to 2 inches.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . SC UPDATE . DRK DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . AM HYDROLOGY . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 8 1008.6 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi70 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 47°F 1008.5 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi77 minSSE 75.00 miFog/Mist48°F45°F89%1008.3 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi77 minENE 119.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7E6E7E6SE6SE5SE6SE5E8E8
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SE8E7E8NE10E9E7E7E9E7NE6E5NE3SE7S5
1 day agoNW7N6NE3N4CalmE7E8E4NE8NE6E3E3NE54NE6E6E10E7E8E6NE7SE8SE6SE4
2 days agoSW8S6SW6S7SW6SW5SW6SW5CalmS6SW4SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW5W13W11W10NW8NW7N6W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.