Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wyandotte, MI

AVIATION

Moisture continues to advect into the region today from southeasterly flow on the north side of the large upper low spinning over TN/KY. CIGs largely lifted out of the IFR from the early part of the day but should hold MVFR through the afternoon before dropping again tonight. Scattered showers are redeveloping at press time and will continue through the afternoon. Will keep SHRA in for the next few hours to cover it without any more defining feature to lock onto for timing. Still an outside shot at an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening but coverage warrants watching and amending later if they look to target a taf site. Fog remains possible late tonight with models advertising combination of IFR CIGs and VSBYs. Showers will be possible again Wednesday as the upper low remains over the region.

For DTW/D21 Convection...
Potential exists for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the forecast.

* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM early Wednesday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

DISCUSSION...

Light shower activity lifted into southeast Michigan early this morning which is associated with CVA on the north end of a weak low pressure to our south. As the morning progresses the corridor of light rainfall will be focused more across northern portions of the CWA by around 12Z as remaining coverage wanes to some degree. By the afternoon, there is are some indications that precipitation may struggle to develop. There will be almost no CAPE depth across southeast Michigan as better CAPE depth environment will pivot to western Michigan. In addition, soundings point toward a weak cap developing along with cooler surface temperatures forecast. Though, the environment will have elevated moist as continued waves of vorticity rotate around the low providing some weak synoptic lift.
Will maintain the chance PoPs with QPF amounts of less than a quarter inch. Suspect thunder potential will be isolated today given lack of strong and deep instability.

Any precipitation that develops this afternoon should decrease in coverage into the early part of tonight as nocturnal stability develops. A stronger shortwave will pivot into southeast Michigan tomorrow morning renewing greater precipitation chances as the main mid level circulation swirls into Lower Michigan. Continued forcing associated with this low will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon. Models lean towards southwest portions of the CWA with the higher chances, which does match where slightly better CAPE depth resides during the afternoon. Overall instability remains weak with weak mid level lapse rates. Intensity of any thunderstorm that develops should be kept in check. There will be some variability to the QPF amounts depending on where scattered activity sets up and will again be on the lighter side with most locations seeing under a quarter inch of rainfall.

A change in the upper level pattern will arrive Thursday as a strong shortwave moves across the northern plains/upper Midwest. Brief time under the downstream shortwave ridge will keep conditions dry for much of Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow will be ushering in both greater warmth and moisture with temperatures forecast to climb above 80 degrees and dewpoints possibly into the mid 60s. Will have to monitor cloud cover for Thursday as this might tamper highs slightly. Favorable dynamics ahead of a cold front will initiate convection upstream across Wisconsin and Lake Michigan which will propagate eastward more than likely in a line or broken line.
Confidence in timing remains low, which ultimately affects confidence in the strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Plenty of shear for organized convection will be present along with steep lapse rates supportive of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The question will be how much surface based instability will be available when best forcing arrives post 00Z, quite possibly towards 06Z.

Friday looks to be mostly dry for the day period behind the front.
There will be potential for additional positive vorticity advection wrapping around the parent low with plenty of moisture still available to bring another chance at showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Cooler northwest flow and drier weather should then settle in by Saturday afternoon and carry into Sunday.

MARINE...

A weak gradient maintains light east to southeast ambient winds across the Great Lakes through the mid-week period. Intervals of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the region today through Thursday as a broad upper low slowly tracks northward from the Ohio Valley. Low pressure then organizes over the Midwest and sends a warm front across the region Thursday night into Friday. This will bring stronger southerly wind and the potential for more organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. A cold front follows on Saturday with potential for additional storms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.