Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyandotte, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 101105 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 605 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION.

MVFR conditions will carry through the early afternoon as cold advection in the wake of a passing front produces lower CIGS. This afternoon, deeper mixing will allow CIGS to lift into VFR range. Westerly flow gusting to around 20 knots and cold air will combine to produce lake effect snow showers which will be the challenge for this forecast. Initial narrow band of snow along the front will be short lived but widespread plume of moisture/snow coming off Lake MI will fill in behind it for the morning before activity turns more scattered this afternoon. Timing more substantial snow showers/bands will be handled with amendments but overall expect varying degrees of snowfall this morning through the afternoon.

For DTW . Light snow will be ongoing at the start of the forecast with possibility of briefly heavier showers this afternoon as some degree of lake effect streamers set up in W/WNW flow from Lake Michigan. Wind gusts to around 20 knots will prevail today.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet into this evening.

* High in precip being all snow showers today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION .

A reinforcing surge of cold air follows the primary cold front across Lower Michigan during the predawn hours. This takes low level temperatures downward enough to change precipitation type to snow and activate Lake Michigan. A west to northwest wind shift on the leading edge of this colder air helps focus bands of lake effect snow showers into SE Michigan primarily south of the I-69 corridor leading up to sunrise and then focused more toward the I-96/94 corridors early to mid morning. The early morning radar presentation reflects characteristics of respectable lake effect potential shown in model soundings with the added benefit of enhanced convergence along the wind shift. Convective depth of 6-7 kft is maintained within a steep low level lapse rate environment along with deep supersaturation wrt ice in the cloud layer. Theta-e lapse rate in the 0-1 km layer of 2 to 3 K/km is maintained inland across Lower Michigan which is expected to help the wind shift maintain a leading primary band followed by scattered to numerous filaments of multiband activity in the NW flow during late morning. The quick hitting nature of the system keeps accumulation to an inch or less and again with the greatest concentration south of I-69 before activity becomes more scattered/cellular with increased boundary layer mixing during the afternoon.

Lake effect snow showers are diminished by an infusion of dry air around the 850 mb level that moves over Lake Michigan by early evening. There is some recovery toward midnight and a slight backing of the wind field that favors low end scattered coverage of light snow showers mainly from Flint to the Tri Cities and northern Thumb. Model soundings indicate a much less favorable profile compared to today. Convective depth is forced below 5 kft with a shallower cloud layer although with similar steep lapse rate and high boundary layer moisture profile wrt ice. These lingering favorable elements support maintenance of entry level chance POPs tonight to near sunrise Wednesday.

Additional reinforcement of cold air occurs during Wednesday which does more to affect temperatures while maintaining a shallower lake effect profile. Projected high temperatures struggle to reach 20 in the Saginaw valley and only reach the mid 20s in the Detroit area. This is the coldest day in the stretch of below normal temperatures which appears to avoid single digit lows Wednesday night. High clouds are shown to thicken and lower in model data as warm advection develops quickly within a short wave ridge moving into the region. A south surface wind component also quickly develops during Thursday to help lift temperatures back into the lower and mid 30s. Readings continue to rebound slightly above normal Friday as low pressure moves through the northern Great Lakes giving us the benefit of warmer temperatures and dry weather to finish the week.

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE .

Ongoing passage of a cold front will produce unsettled weather across marine areas today. A slight decrease in wind intensity occurs today, however, continued westerly flow draws in cold air across the lakes, increasing instability and allowing stronger gusts and elevated wave heights to persist. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and are extended through Wednesday for all nearshore zones and a Gale Watch is in effect for northern Lake Huron.

In addition to wind, a primary hazard will then transition to snow squalls starting today for all of Lake Huron reaching south down into Saginaw Bay. The potential for snow squalls will continue through Wednesday, thus any snow activity over the lake will have the potential to quickly and drastically reduce visibilities. In addition to squall activity, freezing spray will be another potential hazard across Lake Huron for Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441- 442.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.



AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . AM/BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	24 mi	70 min	W 12 G 17	36°F			1007.1 hPa (+3.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	25 mi	70 min	W 26 G 29	35°F
TWCO1	34 mi	30 min	W 21 G 27
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	38 mi	64 min	W 12 G 19	33°F			1008.7 hPa	25°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	41 mi	70 min	W 25 G 29	35°F			1008.3 hPa (+3.6)
CMPO1	44 mi	100 min	WNW 9.9 G 20	36°F
AGCM4	45 mi	52 min		37°F	41°F		1006 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	49 mi	52 min	W 16 G 20	35°F	39°F		1008.4 hPa	28°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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6 AM

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Last 24hr

S10 G14

S10 G14

S11 G14

S11 G16

S12 G15

S13 G18

SW11 G17

SW9 G16

SW8 G13

SW7 G12

W7 G12

SW4 G8

SW7 G12

SW9 G15

SW9 G18

W12 G22

W15 G23

W16 G22

W13 G28

W18 G31

W12 G18

W15 G23

W14 G19

W13 G17

1 day ago

S9 G13

S7 G12

S8 G12

S10 G14

SW11 G16

SW7 G11

S10 G14

SW10 G16

SW10 G17

SW9 G14

SW13 G20

SW15 G23

S10 G14

S17 G22

S13 G23

S9 G14

S8 G12

S8 G13

S8 G13

S9

S8

S8 G11

S8

S11 G15

2 days ago

NW4

NW4

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N2

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S4

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S4 G7

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S5 G8

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S5 G9

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S5 G8

S8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	6 mi	75 min	W 11 G 16	10.00 mi	Overcast	35°F	28°F	76%	1007.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	11 mi	77 min	W 17 G 26	10.00 mi	Overcast	35°F	27°F	72%	1007.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	18 mi	77 min	W 11 G 21	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	26°F	67%	1006.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	21 mi	77 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	27°F	70%	1007.5 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI	23 mi	75 min	W 17 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	28°F	81%	1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)

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S4

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S10 G14

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SW9 G14

SW9 G14

SW6

SW10

W13 G19

SW15 G22

W15 G24

W14 G21

W19 G30

W12 G21

W11 G19

W12 G21

W15 G20

1 day ago

S13 G18

SW12 G17

S13 G17

S16

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SW13 G16

SW9

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S5

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S3

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2 days ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

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SW3

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S4

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S6

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S13

S11 G16

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S10

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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