Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wyandotte, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday August 9, 2020 5:05 AM EDT (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0029.000000t0000z-200729t2015z/ 407 Pm Edt Wed Jul 29 2020
.the special marine warning will expire at 415 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4197 8326 4226 8317 4229 8314 4229 8310 4226 8311 4224 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 time...mot...loc 2007z 289deg 26kt 4207 8283
LCZ423 Expires:202007292017;;621224 FZUS73 KDTX 292007 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-292017-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyandotte, MI
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location: 42.18, -83.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 090807 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

DISCUSSION.

The return of mid summer heat and humidity is on schedule for today as early morning surface observations show mid to upper 60s dewpoint making eastward progress from the Midwest into lower MI. Expect this air mass to wash over the entire area as the day unfolds and as high temperatures make a run toward 90 this afternoon for heat index in the mid 90s. The increased humidity comes in with limited potential for thunderstorms with the best chance for activity actually occurring during the morning. Model analysis fields indicate a diffuse mid level theta-e ridge overhead in which elevated convection will percolate leading up to sunrise. A generous scattered coverage is possible mainly north of the I-69 corridor until about mid morning before dissipating as elevated instability fades. After that, the short wave ridge aloft reinforces mid level warm air and effectively caps surface based convection around the 800 mb level according to model soundings. It is possible that an isolated storm occurs around the Tri Cities to northern Thumb region either near the shoreline or moving in from higher terrain areas of northern lower MI. A low POP remains in the forecast for that area late afternoon through this evening.

Warm and humid conditions become firmly entrenched across SE MI tonight as light SW surface wind reinforces higher dewpoint from the central Plains and Midwest. This occurs under clear to partly cloudy sky through the night depending on the extent of cloud debris from daytime thunderstorms. The scenario for convection remains complex beginning with the ongoing central/northern Plains MCS and resulting MCV that is projected to move over the U.P. tonight. Activity tied to this wave remains well to our north but is followed by a new round of surface based convection along the northern Plains to upper Midwest cold front. These storms are shown to grow upscale enough for a chance of survival into Lower MI Monday morning and into SE MI by Monday afternoon. Larger scale support is limited to minor height falls shown in model data preceding the main short wave still over central Canada and the northern Plains. Mid chance POPs in the guidance package look reasonable for a weakening pattern of convective remnants.

Scattered remnant showers and cloud debris keep afternoon temperatures in check with highs in the mid to upper 80s accompanied by continued humid conditions. Boundary layer moisture stands ready to fuel another round of convection that organizes along the cold front moving into Lower MI Monday night. The front is driven into the central Great Lakes by the southern extent of the Canadian upper level trough. It provides substantial larger scale forcing that leads to a stronger low to mid level wind field and sharpening moisture axis ahead of the front. There is some concern about recovery of instability as a limiting factor for convective intensity but this should not have much affect on coverage which is worthy of likely POPs Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Assuming the strength of the upper level trough holds into Tuesday, then its passage should bring enough subsidence to push the cold front south of the Ohio border Tuesday afternoon. The post front air mass settles in with cooler and less humid conditions for the mid week period. The front itself remains active to our south and could brush the Ohio border region with some showers depending on the actual character of any waves in the zonal flow aloft. These carry low predictability for minimal POPs during late week and into next weekend.

MARINE.

Broad high pressure will continue slowly drifting eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic region today as return southwest flow continues to bring an increasingly warm and humid airmass across the region that will become firmly established today and Monday. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning associated with a pocket of elevated instability moving into northern Lower Michigan and possibly Saginaw Bay/portions of central Lake Huron. The better potential for showers and thunderstorms, however, will accompany the arrival of a cold front Monday. Ahead of the cold front, southwest winds will ramp up with gusts in nearshore waters likely approaching 20-25 knots. Drier weather and lighter, northerly flow behind the cold front passage will then prevail for the middle of next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

AVIATION .

Axis of deeper moisture and instability continues to nose into Mid MI during the overnight hours. Most of the convection trying to drift east across the state erodes as it quickly leaves the more favorable airmass. There will be a system moving through early this morning that may be enough to produce a few hours of rain for mbS so will keep with the tempo for the time being. With little to force the better airmass southward, points FNT south should remain dry with low level high pressure holding on. Southwesterly flow will continue today while increasing this afternoon. There will be FEW- SCT diurnal cu with some possible cirrus debris passing over as well.

For DTW . continued southwesterly flow with diurnal cu field developing today. Unfavorable airmass in the low levels will keep the cigs SCT around 5kt. Lake Erie lake breeze front may make an attempt to wash through late in the afternoon - flopping winds around to the southeast for a period of time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling below 5000 ft Sunday. * Medium for lake-breeze to shift winds from southwest to southeast after 20z Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . IRL AVIATION . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 24 mi75 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 72°F 1019.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 25 mi65 min SSW 15 G 16 74°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 30 mi65 min SSW 12 G 14 74°F1 ft1017.3 hPa (-1.2)
45165 34 mi15 min NW 9.7 G 12 71°F 76°F1 ft60°F
TWCO1 34 mi15 min SSW 12 G 15 70°F 76°F61°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 38 mi47 min SSW 6 G 8 71°F 1018.4 hPa57°F
CMPO1 44 mi95 min SW 2.9 67°F
AGCM4 45 mi47 min 72°F 74°F1018.7 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 49 mi47 min S 6 G 8 70°F 76°F1018.5 hPa57°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miFair71°F56°F61%1019 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI11 mi72 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F57°F70%1018.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi72 minSW 610.00 miFair72°F57°F61%1018.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI21 mi72 minSSW 410.00 miFair67°F59°F76%1018.6 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI23 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miFair64°F61°F89%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5W4W6W5S7S7S9S8S9S9S9S6S8S10
G16
S7S7SW6SW4SW3SW3SW4
1 day agoN4CalmN4NE3NE5N3NE7NE7E6NE7E4S8S7S6S6S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE5NE5E6E3NE8E5E4CalmCalmNE4NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.