Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wyandotte, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 6:09 AM EST (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201910270922;;927514 Fzus73 Kdtx 270913 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-270922- /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0061.000000t0000z-191027t0915z/ 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4266 8255 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8306 4224 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4199 8314 4195 8329 time...mot...loc 0912z 210deg 39kt 4330 8288 4297 8249
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyandotte, MI
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location: 42.18, -83.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 101105 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 605 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION.

MVFR conditions will carry through the early afternoon as cold advection in the wake of a passing front produces lower CIGS. This afternoon, deeper mixing will allow CIGS to lift into VFR range. Westerly flow gusting to around 20 knots and cold air will combine to produce lake effect snow showers which will be the challenge for this forecast. Initial narrow band of snow along the front will be short lived but widespread plume of moisture/snow coming off Lake MI will fill in behind it for the morning before activity turns more scattered this afternoon. Timing more substantial snow showers/bands will be handled with amendments but overall expect varying degrees of snowfall this morning through the afternoon.

For DTW . Light snow will be ongoing at the start of the forecast with possibility of briefly heavier showers this afternoon as some degree of lake effect streamers set up in W/WNW flow from Lake Michigan. Wind gusts to around 20 knots will prevail today.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet into this evening.

* High in precip being all snow showers today.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION .

A reinforcing surge of cold air follows the primary cold front across Lower Michigan during the predawn hours. This takes low level temperatures downward enough to change precipitation type to snow and activate Lake Michigan. A west to northwest wind shift on the leading edge of this colder air helps focus bands of lake effect snow showers into SE Michigan primarily south of the I-69 corridor leading up to sunrise and then focused more toward the I-96/94 corridors early to mid morning. The early morning radar presentation reflects characteristics of respectable lake effect potential shown in model soundings with the added benefit of enhanced convergence along the wind shift. Convective depth of 6-7 kft is maintained within a steep low level lapse rate environment along with deep supersaturation wrt ice in the cloud layer. Theta-e lapse rate in the 0-1 km layer of 2 to 3 K/km is maintained inland across Lower Michigan which is expected to help the wind shift maintain a leading primary band followed by scattered to numerous filaments of multiband activity in the NW flow during late morning. The quick hitting nature of the system keeps accumulation to an inch or less and again with the greatest concentration south of I-69 before activity becomes more scattered/cellular with increased boundary layer mixing during the afternoon.

Lake effect snow showers are diminished by an infusion of dry air around the 850 mb level that moves over Lake Michigan by early evening. There is some recovery toward midnight and a slight backing of the wind field that favors low end scattered coverage of light snow showers mainly from Flint to the Tri Cities and northern Thumb. Model soundings indicate a much less favorable profile compared to today. Convective depth is forced below 5 kft with a shallower cloud layer although with similar steep lapse rate and high boundary layer moisture profile wrt ice. These lingering favorable elements support maintenance of entry level chance POPs tonight to near sunrise Wednesday.

Additional reinforcement of cold air occurs during Wednesday which does more to affect temperatures while maintaining a shallower lake effect profile. Projected high temperatures struggle to reach 20 in the Saginaw valley and only reach the mid 20s in the Detroit area. This is the coldest day in the stretch of below normal temperatures which appears to avoid single digit lows Wednesday night. High clouds are shown to thicken and lower in model data as warm advection develops quickly within a short wave ridge moving into the region. A south surface wind component also quickly develops during Thursday to help lift temperatures back into the lower and mid 30s. Readings continue to rebound slightly above normal Friday as low pressure moves through the northern Great Lakes giving us the benefit of warmer temperatures and dry weather to finish the week.

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE .

Ongoing passage of a cold front will produce unsettled weather across marine areas today. A slight decrease in wind intensity occurs today, however, continued westerly flow draws in cold air across the lakes, increasing instability and allowing stronger gusts and elevated wave heights to persist. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and are extended through Wednesday for all nearshore zones and a Gale Watch is in effect for northern Lake Huron.

In addition to wind, a primary hazard will then transition to snow squalls starting today for all of Lake Huron reaching south down into Saginaw Bay. The potential for snow squalls will continue through Wednesday, thus any snow activity over the lake will have the potential to quickly and drastically reduce visibilities. In addition to squall activity, freezing spray will be another potential hazard across Lake Huron for Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441- 442.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.



AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . AM/BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 24 mi70 min W 12 G 17 36°F 1007.1 hPa (+3.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 25 mi70 min W 26 G 29 35°F
TWCO1 34 mi30 min W 21 G 27
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 38 mi64 min W 12 G 19 33°F 1008.7 hPa25°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 41 mi70 min W 25 G 29 35°F 1008.3 hPa (+3.6)
CMPO1 44 mi100 min WNW 9.9 G 20 36°F
AGCM4 45 mi52 min 37°F 41°F1006 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 49 mi52 min W 16 G 20 35°F 39°F1008.4 hPa28°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi75 minW 11 G 1610.00 miOvercast35°F28°F76%1007.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI11 mi77 minW 17 G 2610.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1007.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi77 minW 11 G 2110.00 miOvercast36°F26°F67%1006.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI21 mi77 minW 1210.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1007.5 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI23 mi75 minW 17 G 2010.00 miOvercast33°F28°F81%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S8S10
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1 day agoS13
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SW9S10S11S9S8S5S8S10S8S8S6S5S5S3S5S6S4S3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4S7SW7S4S4SE3S6S5S6S8S9S9S10S13S11
G16
S13S13S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.