Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyandotte, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 212345 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 745 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

AVIATION.

Instability snow showers under cold air aloft will cease very quickly at the start of the period. Radar trends support greater separation between convective cells already here at 23Z. Forecast soundings support dry SKC developing by 5Z tonight. Diurnal cumulus will then redevelop on Thursday. Dry air mass is expected to result in clouds at or above 5000 ft agl. West northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots Thursday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at 5000 ft by late Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

DISCUSSION .

There has been some briefly intense snow showers across SW Lower Mi and nrn Indiana this afternoon along the lead edge of a mid level short wave now over nrn IL. This wave and associated mid level cold pool will move southeast across Indiana this evening. While one of these heavier snow showers may impact Lenawee County, they will for the most part remain south of the forecast area. A weaker mid level wave will slide across portions of Se Mi from the north tonight. While the loss of solar insolation will support an overall decrease in the clouds, steep mid level lapse rates and remnant mid level moisture may support a few light snow showers/flurries well into the evening before mid level subsidence moves overhead late. While the extent of clearing overnight will have an impact on temps, the airmass is so cold that overnight lows well down in the 20s carries high confidence, certainly justifying the freeze warning now in effect. In fact, record min temps at Flint of 23 and Saginaw of 25 both set in 2013 are at risk of being tied or broken. With a much longer record period, the record low at Detroit of 20 set in 1875 should be safe.

Subsidence associated with strong mid level confluence overhead on Thursday followed by short wavelength ridging on Friday will sustain dry conditions with limited cloud cover. Sfc high pressure over the srn OH/TN Valleys Thurs will move to the Mid Atlantic Friday. This will support a respectable westerly gradient over Se Mi Thurs, backing to the southwest Fri. This flow, with well mixed and breezy afternoon conditions, and the departure of the cold air now entrenched across the Great Lakes to the east will support a steady warming trend Thurs into Friday supporting high temps back up near 60 on Friday.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Friday night and last through Saturday. Boundary layer temps will be warm enough to where this will be a light rain event. The main driver for the moisture feed into the srn Great Lakes will be ahead of a southern stream wave moving from the srn plains into the TN Valley. Respectable entrance region jet support over the ern Great Lakes is forecast to drive the ascent fairly high up the frontal slope and into Se Mi. After a brief cool down for the end of the weekend in the wake of this system, the medium range model suite are indicating a major long wave pattern shift across NOAM next week which suggests the return of summer-like temperatures.

MARINE .

Expansive area of high pressure will slide from the central Plains toward the east coast through the end of the week. The low pressure system from Tuesday is now well east of the area sliding up the Atlantic coast through New England. Cool northeast flow will keep flow elevated tonight but at or below 25 knots so waves will continue to subside and remain offshore. Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to expire as nearshore waves have now fallen below 4 feet. We will remain on the northern periphery of this high until Saturday when the next low looks to pass through the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	24 mi	47 min	NW 4.1 G 7	38°F			1016.3 hPa (+0.0)
TWCO1	34 mi	37 min	SW 14 G 18
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	38 mi	53 min	WSW 7 G 11	36°F			1015.7 hPa	30°F
CMPO1	44 mi	77 min	WSW 7 G 8.9	35°F
AGCM4	45 mi	53 min		35°F	43°F		1015.2 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	49 mi	53 min	SW 4.1 G 8	37°F	50°F		1015.3 hPa	26°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	6 mi	52 min	WSW 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	37°F	21°F	53%	1015.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	11 mi	54 min	NW 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	39°F	20°F	46%	1016.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	18 mi	54 min	N 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	40°F	19°F	43%	1016.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	21 mi	54 min	WNW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	20°F	43%	1016.3 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI	23 mi	52 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	34°F	94%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)

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