Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Highland Park, IL
March 28, 2024 1:45 PM CDT (18:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 7:14 PM Moonrise 11:00 PM Moonset 7:58 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 905 Am Cdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of today - West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast late. Mostly cloudy late in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Tonight - Northeast winds around 10 kt becoming north. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 ft.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast overnight. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ700
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 281716 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1216 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming temperatures through weeks' end
- Periods of showers and storms Friday night through the weekend
- Another storm system likely to impact the area early next week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Friday:
Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the southern Great Lakes today allowing temperatures to warm toward more seasonable readings. However, lingering cold temperatures aloft due to an upper low to our north will limit the amount of warming today with highs expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid-50s. In addition, the colder air aloft will also promote some deeper diurnal mixing today which some guidance suggests may pull down drier air and limit the low-level moist advection.
While our current forecast does have humidities this afternoon remaining in the 35 to 40 percent range, if dew points are able to mix down this afternoon RH readings could verify lower to around 30% especially across northern IL. Thankfully, winds today should be somewhat light with gusts generally under 20 mph which should limit any fire weather concerns this afternoon.
Heading into tonight, a surface baroclinic zone will begin to lift into the area which will likely generate a bit of a north- south temperature gradient with overnight lows. Guidance also continues to show a weak mid-level impulse pivoting atop this baroclinic zone which looks to be sufficient to generate some isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area (areas south of the Kankakee River Valley).
However, forecast soundings continue to show a decent amount of dry air in the sub-cloud layer which may limit the overall coverage. Therefore, despite a large guidance support for higher POPs, I have decided to maintain the advertised 15 to 20 percent chances for showers this evening through about midnight.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions to once again prevail through Friday afternoon with warmer temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Though onshore winds along the IL lakeshore will keep temperatures notably cooler in the 40s.
Friday night through Wednesday...
Several periods of active weather will begin to establish across the central CONUS, including our area, Friday night as a broad upper trough moves onshore over southern California and progresses eastward through the early part of next week. The first period of inclement weather for our area is expected Friday night as a modest shortwave passes through the southern Great Lakes and interacts with the aforementioned baroclinic zone which is expected to be stalled across northern IL. As these features interact a weak surface low will develop across eastern Iowa and propagate eastward along the boundary generating a broad area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms as it does so.
Given the non-favorable diurnal time, instability over northern IL and northwest IN looks to be somewhat modest at best but still sufficient for at least scattered embedded thunderstorms particularly in the warm sector south of the boundary. As a result, widespread severe weather is not expected. However, there will be a stout 500 mb jet pivoting into the area Friday night which should develop 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear and possibly allow for some more robust cores to develop. Any storm cores that area able to take advantage of the shear may be able to produce localized instances of small hail and possibly some gusty winds. Additionally, PWATs of 0.75 to 0.90 inches are forecast to advect into the warm sector of this system which may yield some heavier downpours especially with any robust storm cores. Given that soil moistures are above average and the lack of green vegetation yet, runoff from the rain could lead to instances of river and stream rises and result in a concern for localized flooding.
Guidance continues to depict that showers and storms should wane Saturday morning as the surface low exits into northern Indiana, but some guidance does redevelop convection in the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Whether or not this warm sector is in our area remains uncertain. A similar story can be told for Sunday as the potential for showers and storms will depend on how far south the baroclinic zone gets shoved in the wake of Saturday morning convection and whether or not it can retreat back into our area prior to storms developing Sunday afternoon.
Due to these uncertainties I have decided to maintain the 20 to 30 percent chances for showers in our southern CWA both Saturday and Sunday.
Heading into Monday, the aforementioned trough is forecast to be ejecting into the southern plains with a strengthening upper jet aimed at the southern Great Lakes. This broader forcing is expected to be enough to surge the baroclinic zone back north as a new surface low develops somewhere across the Mississippi Valley. However, where this surface low will track once it develops remains very uncertain among guidance members which will play a major role in what impacts we see. While it does appear likely that we will see some additional rainfall from this system, the intensity of said rainfall and whether or not any strong to severe storms develop into our area will be something to monitor over the coming days.
Yack
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
- Weak lake breeze wind shift likely for KORD/KMDW/KGYY this evening.
VFR cloud cover will decrease across the terminals early this afternoon, with increasing sun/mixing allowing west-southwest winds to become a little breezy with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will diminish and turn more northwest toward sunset, setting the stage for a weak lake breeze to develop for KGYY/KMDW/KORD (in that temporal order) this evening, with high-res guidance depicting winds turning light northeast around 00Z for KGYY, and after 02Z/03Z for KMDW and KORD. Winds will otherwise become light and variable at 5 kts or less for the overnight hours, before turning northeast toward morning and eventually easterly Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the current TAF period, though rain (and possibly some TSRA) will likely arrive Friday evening just beyond the end of the current 30-hour forecast period.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1216 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warming temperatures through weeks' end
- Periods of showers and storms Friday night through the weekend
- Another storm system likely to impact the area early next week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Friday:
Mid-level ridging will continue to build into the southern Great Lakes today allowing temperatures to warm toward more seasonable readings. However, lingering cold temperatures aloft due to an upper low to our north will limit the amount of warming today with highs expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid-50s. In addition, the colder air aloft will also promote some deeper diurnal mixing today which some guidance suggests may pull down drier air and limit the low-level moist advection.
While our current forecast does have humidities this afternoon remaining in the 35 to 40 percent range, if dew points are able to mix down this afternoon RH readings could verify lower to around 30% especially across northern IL. Thankfully, winds today should be somewhat light with gusts generally under 20 mph which should limit any fire weather concerns this afternoon.
Heading into tonight, a surface baroclinic zone will begin to lift into the area which will likely generate a bit of a north- south temperature gradient with overnight lows. Guidance also continues to show a weak mid-level impulse pivoting atop this baroclinic zone which looks to be sufficient to generate some isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area (areas south of the Kankakee River Valley).
However, forecast soundings continue to show a decent amount of dry air in the sub-cloud layer which may limit the overall coverage. Therefore, despite a large guidance support for higher POPs, I have decided to maintain the advertised 15 to 20 percent chances for showers this evening through about midnight.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions to once again prevail through Friday afternoon with warmer temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Though onshore winds along the IL lakeshore will keep temperatures notably cooler in the 40s.
Friday night through Wednesday...
Several periods of active weather will begin to establish across the central CONUS, including our area, Friday night as a broad upper trough moves onshore over southern California and progresses eastward through the early part of next week. The first period of inclement weather for our area is expected Friday night as a modest shortwave passes through the southern Great Lakes and interacts with the aforementioned baroclinic zone which is expected to be stalled across northern IL. As these features interact a weak surface low will develop across eastern Iowa and propagate eastward along the boundary generating a broad area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms as it does so.
Given the non-favorable diurnal time, instability over northern IL and northwest IN looks to be somewhat modest at best but still sufficient for at least scattered embedded thunderstorms particularly in the warm sector south of the boundary. As a result, widespread severe weather is not expected. However, there will be a stout 500 mb jet pivoting into the area Friday night which should develop 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear and possibly allow for some more robust cores to develop. Any storm cores that area able to take advantage of the shear may be able to produce localized instances of small hail and possibly some gusty winds. Additionally, PWATs of 0.75 to 0.90 inches are forecast to advect into the warm sector of this system which may yield some heavier downpours especially with any robust storm cores. Given that soil moistures are above average and the lack of green vegetation yet, runoff from the rain could lead to instances of river and stream rises and result in a concern for localized flooding.
Guidance continues to depict that showers and storms should wane Saturday morning as the surface low exits into northern Indiana, but some guidance does redevelop convection in the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Whether or not this warm sector is in our area remains uncertain. A similar story can be told for Sunday as the potential for showers and storms will depend on how far south the baroclinic zone gets shoved in the wake of Saturday morning convection and whether or not it can retreat back into our area prior to storms developing Sunday afternoon.
Due to these uncertainties I have decided to maintain the 20 to 30 percent chances for showers in our southern CWA both Saturday and Sunday.
Heading into Monday, the aforementioned trough is forecast to be ejecting into the southern plains with a strengthening upper jet aimed at the southern Great Lakes. This broader forcing is expected to be enough to surge the baroclinic zone back north as a new surface low develops somewhere across the Mississippi Valley. However, where this surface low will track once it develops remains very uncertain among guidance members which will play a major role in what impacts we see. While it does appear likely that we will see some additional rainfall from this system, the intensity of said rainfall and whether or not any strong to severe storms develop into our area will be something to monitor over the coming days.
Yack
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
- Weak lake breeze wind shift likely for KORD/KMDW/KGYY this evening.
VFR cloud cover will decrease across the terminals early this afternoon, with increasing sun/mixing allowing west-southwest winds to become a little breezy with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will diminish and turn more northwest toward sunset, setting the stage for a weak lake breeze to develop for KGYY/KMDW/KORD (in that temporal order) this evening, with high-res guidance depicting winds turning light northeast around 00Z for KGYY, and after 02Z/03Z for KMDW and KORD. Winds will otherwise become light and variable at 5 kts or less for the overnight hours, before turning northeast toward morning and eventually easterly Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the current TAF period, though rain (and possibly some TSRA) will likely arrive Friday evening just beyond the end of the current 30-hour forecast period.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 13 mi | 106 min | WSW 8.9G | 40°F | ||||
OKSI2 | 21 mi | 106 min | W 6G | 47°F | ||||
CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 22 mi | 26 min | W 15G | 44°F | 24°F | |||
CNII2 | 25 mi | 16 min | W 8.9G | 46°F | 22°F | |||
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 28 mi | 46 min | WSW 8.9G | 41°F | 30.08 | |||
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 34 mi | 46 min | SW 12G | 46°F | 30.07 | 24°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 7 sm | 53 min | W 11G20 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 27°F | 46% | 30.10 | |
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 15 sm | 54 min | WSW 12G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 45°F | 27°F | 49% | 30.09 | |
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 17 sm | 54 min | W 11G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 45°F | 27°F | 49% | 30.08 |
Chicago, IL,
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