Friday, January22, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Park, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:54PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:16 AM CST (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 320 Am Cst Fri Jan 22 2021
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow early in the evening, then snow likely in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:202101221615;;302220 FZUS53 KLOT 220920 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 320 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-221615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Park, IL
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location: 42.18, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 221122 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 522 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

SHORT TERM. 318 AM CST

Through Sunday .

Beside a couple days around Christmas, the coldest conditions of the season are expected today and tonight as the area is brushed by a pocket of arctic air to the northeast.

Today: Sunshine will be abundant today, though some decaying stratocumulus in central Wisconsin may clip extreme northeast Illinois. Even with the sun, max temps will reach only the mid teens in north-central IL over the snowpack to the low to mid 20s over bare ground south of the Chicago metro. With northwest winds gusting to 20 mph most of the day, wind chill values will remain in the single digits above zero.

Tonight into Saturday morning: Strengthening surface high pressure will drift eastward into northern Illinois late tonight. With conditions favorable for good radiational cooling, sub-zero temperatures are possible for areas with a notable snow pack outside of the Chicago metro. Based on yesteday's visible satellite, a decent snowpack exists generally north and west of a line from northeastern Cook County through Aurora and along the Fox/Illinois rivers. Farther south and east, the later arrival time of the high pressure combined sub-zero temps being climatologically unfavorable in the absence of a snow pack, temps should remain well above zero tonight.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday: Phasing of energy from a clipper system and a portion of a west coast trough combined with minimal assist from the left-exit region of a strengthening jet will spread a broad area of precip across the region late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. An initial NW/SE oriented axis of precip forced by fairly pronounced low-level WAA will have to battle a significant amount of antecedent dry air across northern Illinois late afternoon into mid-evening. While the southeast extent of the precip axis remains unclear owing to the dry air, a 1-2 hour clip of snow producing up to a half inch is expected generally northwest of a line from Dixon to DeKalb to Waukegan in the 5-9 pm window.

More widespread light to briefly moderate snow is then expected across the CWA, especially north, late Saturday night into mid- morning Sunday. The phased wave will likely be in a decaying mode by this point as it becomes increasingly sheared within strong mid- level flow/confluence. Meanwhile, dry air will remain an issue for most of the area prior to daybreak. Snowfall amounts of 1-2", highest near the WI state line, are expected. Weak WAA will then take hold by Sunday afternoon, with the potential for light precip to remain across the area. Thermo profiles indicate precip should remain snow for the north half of the CWA, but a changeover to liquid precip for the southern CWA is possible with temps only slightly above freezing. Coming out of the brief day or two of cold, some patchy freezing rain is possible.

Kluber

LONG TERM. 318 AM CST

Sunday night through Thursday .

Our active stretch of weather looks to continue into next week. The main focus continues to be on a moisture-laden system during the Monday afternoon/overnight period which has the potential to deliver significant snowfall to parts of the region, as well as some threat for freezing rain for locales mainly south of I-80. Strong and gusty northeast winds appear to be a good bet with this system, which may result in a threat for minor lakeshore flooding and, depending on how things align, a potential for blowing snow. Another fast-moving wave is forecast to translate towards our longitude towards the Wednesday evening/Thursday timeframe, which could deliver yet another round of (mainly light) snow to parts of the area.

We'll essentially be in between primary systems at the start of the long term period Sunday evening and overnight, with the main wing of warm advection from Sunday's event migrating towards the Ohio River Valley. In its wake, 850 mb streamlines depict a developing col/saddle point off to our west, resulting in some degree of strengthening mid-level confluence across northern Illinois. Attendant modest 850-700 mb frontogenesis under the right entrance region of a fast, anticyclonically-arcing jet streak could provide the impetus for some light precipitation through the evening and early-morning hours on Monday, although guidance remains pretty split in the degree of lingering mid-level saturation during this period. Even the more saturated GFS is getting close at times to losing saturation in the dendritic growth zone during this time frame, which could spell a threat for freezing drizzle, although soundings for this still look pretty marginal. For now, we'll continue to show just low-grade chance PoPs for light snow north of I-80, with a transition to more of a wintry mix/freezing rain depiction in the weather grids south where layer energy profiles support full melting in the 900-800 mb layer.

The main shift in the overnight guidance seems to be one of a slightly slower tune regarding the parent wave, which is just now surging southward off the British Columbia coast on the backside of a potent vort max off the northern California coastline. That said, the slowest deterministic run (ECMWF) has actually fallen towards the slower end of its ensemble envelope, so have continued to favor timing that aligns more closely with the multi- model consensus. This would begin to spread more coherent large scale forcing overhead late Monday morning and into the afternoon. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, wide open Gulf trajectories in the run up period to this event should ensure an ample supply of deep moisture, and PWATs climbing towards the 90-95th percentile for this time of year.

The primary question that remains to be seen is just how far north this wave manages to develop before a gradual deamplification takes place as it scoots into fast, confluent flow in place to our east. The GFS, which had been on the southern tail of the guidance suite, continues to gradually slide things farther north, with the latest GFS ensemble suite now more closely aligned with the ECMWF/EPS. We'll note that dispersion within the 50-member EPS seems to have grown a bit with the latest 00z run, which continues to suggest a high-degree of uncertainty here--not surprising at all given the look of the water vapor imagery off the west coast with a vigorous wave set to dumbbell around the southern flank of a Great Basin trough. Confidence is, however, high enough to justify high-end likely PoPs Monday afternoon and evening, tapering quickly by early Tuesday morning as the main deformation area shifts off to our east.

Thermal profiles become a question with southward extent into central Illinois, with what appears to be a decent potential for 900-800 mb temperatures to push above freezing somewhere south of I-80. This looks to occur through a deep enough layer to result in near complete hydrometeor melting and a freezing rain threat should surface temperatures remain at or below freezing. That said, with the deamplifying trend with time, do wonder if the fairly warm GFS is just a bit too warm with its current thermal profiles across our south and east. If this ends up being the case, there could be more of a potential for sleet than presently advertised. However, given the lack of more antecedent cold with this system, Bourgouin-based energy grids don't have quite enough negative low-level energy to support overly high sleet probabilities at this time. Surface temperatures trended perhaps a smidge warmer with this latest forecast across our southeastern tier, so we're showing freezing rain transitioning to rain and snow Monday afternoon before an area-wide transition to all snow Monday evening as winds back with the departing surface low.

Still too early for a snowfall amount offering, but given the degree of moisture with this system and what appears to be a decent region of deformation snowfall towards Monday evening, the potential certainly exists for significant snowfall amounts (>6") in the forecast area, just still quite a few moving parts to nail down yet.

We'll get a quick break Tuesday and Wednesday before the next wave of interest zips into the area Wednesday night/Thursday. Guidance is in pretty good agreement with this next disturbance, all things considered, and the presence of rather cold air aloft would support a region of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates with this feature. Things look cold enough for all snow with this disturbance, so this is another one we'll be keeping an eye on. The good news is this will be quite a bit more starved of moisture than its predecessor and fast-moving enough to limit residence time over our area.

Carlaw

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

Aviation weather concerns this forecast period are minimal. Outside of a low potential for some high-MVFR cigs this morning and afternoon, VFR conditions are expected. Lingering northwesterly breezes will ease with time today before becoming light this evening. Winds will then trend more south-southwesterly with time late tonight and into Saturday morning. Low-levels look to remain dry enough to preclude any BR/FG development tonight, except perhaps INVOF RFD where some patchy BR may develop with the slackening winds. A VFR mid-deck will likely develop through Saturday afternoon.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 AM Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ743 until 9 AM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi77 min NW 12 G 18 11°F
FSTI2 17 mi77 min 13°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 22 mi27 min NW 16 G 19 15°F 6°F
CNII2 25 mi17 min WNW 11 G 17 17°F 4°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 28 mi17 min WNW 15 G 21 10°F 1020 hPa (+3.7)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi47 min WNW 6 G 14 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL7 mi25 minNW 11 G 2210.00 miFair14°F1°F56%1021.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL15 mi26 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds15°F3°F59%1020.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL17 mi22 minNW 10 G 1910.00 miFair12°F-0°F58%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7SW11
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2 days agoSW6W10SW9SW9SW10SW8SW9SW10
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NW7W5SW3CalmCalmS6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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