Monday, September16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

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9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:22PM Sunday September 15, 2019 11:12 PM PDT (06:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:30PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 833 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..The front ha passe, and winds have decreased, but showers will continue through Monday, with perhaps an isolated Thunderstorm. Gale force winds will be possible and hazardous seas are likely with the next front on Tuesday, mainly north of cape blanco. As the associated low moves eastwards, the waters will probably remain hazardous to smaller craft from Tuesday night into Wednesday as seas remain high and steep. High pressure and lower seas are expected Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 160324
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
824 pm pdt Sun sep 15 2019

Update Radar imagery shows the back edge of the heaviest rain,
and the front itself, lies along a line from just east of roseburg
to grants pass. The front, and the moderate to heavy rain ahead
of it, will continue to push east through tonight, with more rain
expected tomorrow due to post-frontal showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm. The next front, and more steady rain, will
arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds have started to
weaken with the front as well, and the wind advisory that was out
earlier today has been allowed to expire.

The frontal movement and rainfall are right on schedule and in
line with the current forecast, so no updates are needed this
evening. For more information on the rest of the forecast, see the
previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation For the 16 00z tafs... Along the coast and over the
coastal waters... Areas of ifr CIGS vsbys in low clouds, fog,
rain showers, and isolated thunderstorms will persist into Monday
morning, then clear toVFR. The showers will continue into Monday
evening. Areas of ifr CIGS vsbys will return Monday night,
persisting into Tuesday morning.

From the cascades west...VFR conditions will prevail initially, then
area of MVFR CIGS will develop late tonight with higher terrain
becoming obscured, persisting into Monday morning. Conditions will
clear toVFR by Monday afternoon but showers and isolated
thunderstorms will persist into Monday evening. Areas of MVFR
cigs will return Monday night, persisting into Tuesday morning.

East of the cascades...VFR conditions will prevail initially with
southwest winds gusting to 30-40 kt, highest mainly south and east
of klamath falls. There could be enhanced turbulence on
approaches departures through this evening. Local MVFR CIGS in
low clouds and rain will develop this evening with areas of higher
terrain obscured. The rain will change to showers tonight, and
conditions will clear toVFR by late Monday morning.VFR conditions
will then persist into Tuesday morning. However, showers and
isolated thunderstorms will persist into Monday evening.

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Sunday 15 september 2019... A front
moved onshore this evening, but another one will move in Tuesday.

Gale force winds and hazardous seas are possible Tuesday, mainly
north of CAPE blanco. The waters will probably remain hazardous to
smaller craft Tuesday night into Wednesday as seas will remain
high and steep. High pressure will build Wednesday into Thursday,
persisting through Friday.

Prev discussion issued 247 pm pdt Sun sep 15 2019
discussion... A strong and well defined front is knocking on our
doorstep. Moderate to heavy rain has already reached the coast. In
fact north bend already picked up 0.45 of an inch of rain as of noon
and it starting raining there around 930 am pdt ans brookings
recieved a whopping 0.70 of an inch in just 2 hours as of 2 pm pdt.

Meanwhile along and east of the cascades, moderate to strong winds
are occurring, especially over the higher terrain.

The front will continue march inland early this evening and tonight
with moderate to heavy rain along and just ahead of it. Plenty of
dynamics exist with this front, so could not rule out isolated
thunderstorms over the marine waters and along the coast this
evening and tonight. Altogether, we're still expecting a 0.50" to
1.50" from the cascades westward, except in the scott valley
northwest to the klamath river, and in the grants pass area, where
amounts are more likely to be 0.30" to 0.50". 0.25" to 0.50" is
expected for most of the east side, except 0.10" to 0.30" is
expected in the drier portions of lake and modoc counties.

Anyone venturing above the 8,000 foot elevation tonight through
Monday should expect moderate to heavy snowfall and near blizzard
conditions for about a 6 hour period as the front moves through.

Following the front will be an upper level trough bringing in cold
air aloft. So, we'll see a transition from steady rain to showers
later this evening and tonight. Also isolated thunderstorms are
possible over the marine waters. Scattered showers are likely for
the entire area Monday. Depending on the amount of surface heating,
instability could be sufficient enough for isolated thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening for most inland locations. Winds won't
be as strong Monday, but could not rule out gusty winds near any
thunderstorms.

We'll catch a brief break in the action Monday night, but another
front will be on the heals of this one. This front is expected to
bring stronger winds over the coastal waters as a low level jet
stream develops. Rainfall is likely to be most focused along and
near the coast, coastal mountains, and cascades.

Following Tuesday's front will be another upper trough with cold air
aloft. So we'll likely see scattered showers behind the front
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Depending on the progression of the Wednesday's upper trough.

Thursday could be transition day with the best chance for showers
in eastern klamath, lake and modoc county. Friday and Saturday look
dry and milder as upper ridging builds offshore followed by another
front Sunday. -petrucelli
fire weather... Updated 130 pm pdt Sunday, 15 september 2019...

very windy conditions are developing east of the cascades early this
afternoon with several raws sites already notching wind gusts in the
35-45 mph range. A new wildfire was reported in the hart mountain
area and can easily be seen in goes-17 imagery this afternoon. Rhs are
expected to drop into the 8-15% range, so the red flag warning that is
out for those areas is on track. Expect these gusty winds to continue
into the evening hours and while they won't completely subside
overnight, the strongest wind gusts should end by around 8 pm.

After that, fire weather concerns diminish substantially with
widespread wetting rainfall expected with a cold front tonight into
Monday with a huge cool down east of the cascades. Rain is already
falling along the coast and into the umpqua valley with arrival times
late this afternoon and evening in the rogue valley cascades, then
overnight into Monday morning south and east of the cascades (including
across the rest of northern california). Rain amounts of 0.50-1.00 inch
will be common from the cascades westward (more along the coast) with
0.25-0.50 of an inch in northern california and east of the cascades.

Amounts may be slightly lower than 0.25 of an inch east of the warner
mountains. 24-hour temperature change from this afternoon to Monday
afternoon will be 20-30 degrees over the east side. Precipitation will
become more showery Monday behind the front and there is a slight risk
of thunderstorms in the cool, unstable air mass, but we're not
expecting significant amounts of lightning.

More wet weather is expected midweek as another wet front moves
onshore Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool, showery weather will likely
continue into Thursday before some drying occurs late next week with
temperatures getting back closer to normal. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for
pzz350-370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi60 min Calm G 1 57°F 60°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi3.3 hrsVar 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F57°F93%1009.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4W3SW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmW3CalmNW5N3NW4N7W7
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1 day agoSW3SW3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3543NW10W9NW9W8N7N4N5NE4
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW3NW6Calm4--NW9NW8NW6N6NE4NW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Mon -- 01:25 AM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM PDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:47 PM PDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.76.36.25.64.43.121.31.21.72.84.25.46.36.5653.72.51.61.31.62.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:24 AM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM PDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:46 PM PDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:58 PM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.76.36.25.54.43.11.91.21.21.82.94.25.56.36.5653.72.41.61.31.62.53.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.