Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:58PM Sunday August 25, 2019 3:53 PM PDT (22:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:05AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 301 Pm Pdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong thermal trough pattern will bring north gales to some areas south of cape blanco through this evening. Then gusty winds and steep to very steep seas will affect most areas through Monday night. The thermal trough pattern weakens Tuesday but steep seas will still affect areas through Tuesday evening. Calmer conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 252140
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
240 pm pdt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion An upper level ridge will begin to build over our
area Monday and then become quite amplified by Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will lead to the hottest weather we've seen this
summer, by far. Tuesday will be the hottest day with highs
probably reaching 100 for most west side valley locations
and perhaps topping 110f in the valleys of western siskiyou
county. The forecast currently calls for a high of 105 in medford
on Tuesday, and this will threaten the record high for the day
which is 106 from 1972. The combined effects of very hot weather
Tuesday and Wednesday and much above normal low temperatures
Tuesday night will increase the risk for heat related illnesses,
especially among vulnerable populations. Accordingly, an
excessive heat watch remains in effect for Tuesday through
Wednesday for most west side valleys inland from the coast.

As we almost always do under strong ridging aloft, we'll also
have a thermal trough develop along the coast, which will drive
offshore (northeast) flow over the coastal areas. While winds
don't look all that strong this time, they should be enough to
keep any clouds at bay, and thus we don't expect stratus to return
tonight or tomorrow night. Temperatures at the coast will also be
well above normal, but not excessively so.

Later Wednesday is when things really get interesting. The
remnants of what was tropical storm (now tropical depression) ivo
will move into our area. This will bring an impressive surge in
moisture with precipitable water rising to as high as 1.25 inch by
later Wednesday. All this moisture and the resulting instability
(from both the moisture and heat) along with strong short wave
activity acting as trigger will bring the chance for thunderstorms
to our area. Guidance is coming into better agreement with this
and also getting more and more aggressive with the convective
signals, so confidence in thunderstorms is rising.

At this time,it looks like we will have at least isolated
thunderstorms in the lower elevations (including the west side and
possibly all the way to the coast) and scattered storms in the
mountains on Wednesday. In addition, model soundings are showing
very dry low levels prior to thunderstorm developing, so storms
could start out dry. As if that weren't enough, breezy winds are
also possible Wednesday afternoon. This presents a significant
increase in fire potential, the details of which can be found in
the fire weather discussion below. It's a little too early to say
exactly where storms will form or their ultimate nature, but with
so much moisture and strong wind shear, it does at least raise
the concern for severe storms.

The thunderstorm threat may continue into Thursday by some
guidance, but the greatest threat will likely be north and east of
us by then. Gusty winds are also probable again Thursday
afternoon and evening. Once the storms move on, the ridging
returns and so, probably, will the heat. It doesn't look as
excessive as the heat in the short term, but certainly no great
cool downs appear imminent.

The combination of antecedent hot conditions, thunderstorm
potential, wind, and a return to hot conditions makes the upcoming
week potentially the most critical week of weather we've seen
this summer, at least from a fire weather perspective. Numerous
changes have been made the forecast to bring it into alignment
with this thinking. -wright

Aviation For the 25 18z tafs...VFR conditions will continue for
all TAF sites for the next 24 hours with gusty winds late in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Marine stratus in portions of the umpqua basin will burn off in
within the hour with clear skies. Offshore flow will keep marine
stratus from developing along the coast and just offshore tonight.

Could not rule out patchy low clouds late tonight at north bend,
but confidence is not high enough to include it in the taf.

-petrucelli

Marine A strong thermal trough pattern along the coast will
continue through Monday. A mix of gales and very steep warning
level seas is expected from CAPE blanco southward beyond 3nm from
shore. Closer to shore and north of CAPE blanco, small craft
advisory conditions are expected. Winds will diminish slightly
below gales tonight, but very steep, wind-driven warning level
seas will continue through Monday night south of CAPE arago beyond
3 nm from shore. Winds decrease further on Tuesday but steep,
fresh swell will maintain small craft advisory conditions at most
locations beyond 3 nm from shore.

Models indicate that the thermal trough pattern continues to weaken
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds eventually switching to
southerly on Wednesday. Conditions should below small craft advisory
levels during this time. Keene

Fire weather Updated 200 pm pdt Sunday 25 august 2019... It will
remain dry through at least next Tuesday. The main concern ahead is
the potential for thunderstorms from late Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening. Details on this follow below.

The general consensus shows there is the potential for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The ECMWF and GFS show a
shortwave moving up from the south and tapping into moisture from
tropical storm ivo during MAX heating Wednesday afternoon. All the
necessary ingredients (trigger, moisture and instability) are
present for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Right now, we think the best case scenario
will be isolated thunderstorms. Worst case will be scattered
thunderstorms. Additionally this will follow a few days of hot
weather (Monday-Wednesday) and low relative humidity. A look at
some of the soundings also suggest thunderstorms could produce
little or no rainfall, but the details on the specifics on this
could change. Also the track of the shortwave is one that is
favorable for thunderstorms west of the cascades and close to the
coast. Right now, there is no mention of thunderstorms near and at
the coast in forecast, but this will be something that we'll have to
watch closely. The models show stronger winds aloft, so the other
concern will be gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Because
of the above mentioned reasoning and moderate confidence there will
be at least isolated thunderstorms, a fire weather watch has been
issued. Details can be found at rfwmfr.

In the meantime, there are two main short term concerns. First will
be gusty winds east of the cascades this afternoon and evening with
low relative humidity. Second is breezy winds with moderate to
locally poor overnight recoveries near and at the ridges in fire
weather zones 618, 619 and 620 tonight and Monday night. No critical
fire concerns are expected in these areas, therefore we'll just
highlight it in the fire weather forecast.

The hottest temperatures will be on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
with triple digit readings likely for interior westside valleys
Tuesday and Wednesday. The wildcard for Wednesday will be cloud
cover which could result in afternoon temperatures a few degrees
lower than what's in the forecast.

Another weak shortwave will be on the heals of first one Thursday,
but the track is further north and east with the best chance for
thunderstorms east of the cascades in oregon. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Fire weather watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz616-617-619>625.

Excessive heat watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for orz023-024-026.

Ca... Fire weather watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for caz280-281-284.

Excessive heat watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for caz080-081-083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Tuesday
for pzz350-356-370.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Tuesday for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm pdt
Monday for pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for pzz376.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm Monday to 11 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz376.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm pdt Monday for
pzz376.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 am pdt Tuesday for pzz376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi59 min SSE 6 G 7 55°F 61°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi60 minVar 310.00 miFair90°F33°F13%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW12
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N8NE6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSW3N43CalmW4W4W43
1 day agoNW45W10N12N7NE5NE5CalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3CalmW33CalmN3W3
2 days agoCalmS3W5NW9NW8NW8N5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm45

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:11 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:07 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM PDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:29 PM PDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:41 PM PDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.10.811.62.43.34.14.64.74.54.13.73.43.43.84.45.36.16.66.76.35.34.1

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:03 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM PDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:25 PM PDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:40 PM PDT     6.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.810.811.62.53.44.14.64.74.54.13.73.43.43.84.55.36.16.66.76.25.34

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.