Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 3:56 PM PST (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 225 Pm Pst Tue Jan 19 2021
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 15 kt except ne 5 to 10 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..Northern portion, N wind 5 to 10 kt. Brookings southward, ne wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and W 4 ft at 16 seconds...building to 6 ft at 16 seconds and sw 1 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..Northern portion, N wind 10 kt. Brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...veering to ne late in the evening, then...veering to se after midnight... Backing to E early in the morning. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft. Chance of showers through the day.
Thu night..NE wind 5 kt...backing to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft...building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Sun..NE wind 5 kt...backing to nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft. W swell 5 ft...building to nw 12 ft.
PZZ300 225 Pm Pst Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure to the north and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds in the outer waters into Wednesday morning, with seas remaining steep in the outer waters south of cape blanco. Long period west swell builds early Wednesday morning, then the period decreases. The next front is expected Thursday with another episode of long period swell Thursday night and seas building into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 192354 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 354 PM PST Tue Jan 19 2021

Updated AVIATION Section

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Friday night . Current satellite imagery shows clear skies across southern Oregon and northern California. This is due to a high amplitude ridge over our area. The main concern for tonight is the increased risk for Sneaker Waves with unusually high run ups along southern Oregon beaches. There have been several reports in the past few weeks of sneaker waves washing families and other people out to sea. Therefore, we want to advertise that the beach is not a great place to be tonight through Wednesday morning. More detail about this is available in our Beach Hazards Statement or CFWMFR.

This benign pattern will largely continue with some fog and low stratus moving into some of the West Side Valleys again tonight. The gradient generating the strong east winds is beginning to weaken as the ridge of high pressure topples over. We will keep the benign pattern and the east winds, but the weaker winds may suggest that the inversion may be a little slower to erode tomorrow morning. This will lead to a similar day as today, albeit with slightly cooler temperatures area wide.

Then, the pattern begins to shift on Thursday, with winds mainly from the west or northwest ahead of the next system coming into the area. Models are split on how to handle this system with the EC ensemble showing a more progressive, albeit weaker solution than the GFS which is slower. At some point Thursday into Thursday night, the next system will arrive. Expect some light precipitation and lower snow levels (not valley floor snow, although the newest run of the operational GFS would try to suggest it). Have gone with the National Blend of Models due to the model divergence, and expect showers to continue on Friday. For now, there is a 5% or less possibility of valley floor snow on Friday in showers. The main system we're watching remains in the long term portion of the forecast. -Schaaf

LONG TERM. Jan 23rd through Jan 27th. Models start in very good agreement Saturday with s deep upper low digging down into southern California, with northerly flow bringing a cold air mass into the region. Ahead of the front that moves in Sunday morning, 850 mb temperatures are showing as low as -3C and 500 mb temperatures are in the -25 to -30C range. This, combined with cold air trapped beneath could bring light snow amounts to the west side valley floors Sunday morning before mixing with increased winds ahead of the front sweeps out the cold air beneath the inversion, and with relative warm soil and road temperatures likely at this time this should melt quickly. However, snow levels are looking to hover around 2000 ft AGL through the day and elevations above that should see snow through the day, but moisture inflow in the more northerly flow will prevent higher rates.

The even colder air mass looks to move in with the front with 850 mb temps nearing -5C bay late Sunday afternoon, with 500 mb temperatures nearing -30C. 500 mb temperatures are showing to drop to -35C or lower Sunday evening into Sunday night with best LI's nearing -1 over the west side valleys, and with the usual 52 F ocean water temperatures a slight chance of thunderstorms is possible Sunday evening into Monday morning from the coastal waters to the Cascades foothills. With snow levels down to the valley floors west of the Cascades sunday night into Monday morning the more convective nature of the precip in this unstable environment could bring isolated higher amounts as low as the valley floors in this time period, and this wildcard will have to be monitored as we approach this time frame. Any cells that do develop into thunderstorms could bring brief, but high snowfall rates Sunday evening into Monday morning.

This cold air mass active pattern remains into early next week with snow levels varying between 2000 ft AGL, dropping briefly to the west side valley floors at times, mostly overnight into the mornings, but the period with the highest rates look to be Sunday night into Monday morning. Sven

AVIATION. For the 20/00Z TAFs . The 00z KMFR sounding showed that winds just off the surface have eased below 10kt, so the risk for LLWS/turbulence has diminished. VFR will prevail area wide for much of tonight, but areas of fog/low clouds return late tonight or early Wednesday morning in the Umpqua, Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois Valleys. Elsewhere, VFR will persist through Wednesday. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 230 PM PST Tuesday, 19 Jan 2021 . Persistent north to northeast winds south of Cape Blanco beyond 10NM from shore will maintain Advisory level seas into Wednesday morning. This is due to the current pattern of high pressure to the north and a thermal trough along the coast. Wind speeds will be lower near shore.

Long period west swell builds early Wednesday morning, then the period decreases. The next front is expected Thursday with another episode of long period swell Thursday night and seas building into Friday. Northerly winds likely return Thursday night and continue through the weekend with speeds likely highest in the outer waters again. This is expected to result in building seas with the northerly wind waves and fresh swells likely bringing another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. -Sven/Keene

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM PST Wednesday through Wednesday morning for ORZ021-022.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi57 min NNE 9.9 G 14 64°F 51°F1020.1 hPa (-2.3)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi37 min NNW 14 G 16 51°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi64 minN 810.00 miFair57°F26°F30%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3N3CalmNE6N4CalmCalmCalmN6CalmCalm3CalmNE4N6N6CalmN7N8
1 day agoNE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmN4NW3CalmN5N6N5N4N4CalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days agoSW3S3S3CalmCalmS3CalmW3E3S4CalmNE3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmNE6N4CalmCalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:12 AM PST     6.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM PST     2.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:23 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:58 PM PST     5.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:06 PM PST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.15.36.26.56.45.84.943.32.82.83.23.84.555.254.43.72.92.322.2

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:11 AM PST     6.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM PST     2.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:23 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:57 PM PST     5.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:02 PM PST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.25.36.26.56.45.84.943.22.82.83.23.94.555.254.43.62.82.222.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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