Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:42PM Saturday November 28, 2020 12:30 AM PST (08:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:59PMMoonset 5:32AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 805 Pm Pst Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to E late tonight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 9 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..SE wind 5 kt...veering to sw early in the afternoon, then...veering to nw late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun..NE wind 5 kt...veering to se in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Sun night..Northern portion, 15 kt after midnight. Wind S 5 kt in the evening. Brookings southward, se wind after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..Northern portion, S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 5 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, S wind 10 to 15 kt...easing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 10 to 13 ft. Chance of rain through the day.
Mon night..N wind 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 12 to 14 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt...becoming ne 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon and evening, then... Becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. NW swell 11 ft...subsiding to 9 ft.
Wed..E wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon and evening, then...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 ft... Building to W 8 ft.
PZZ300 805 Pm Pst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will begin to diminish while a weak front dissipates north of cape blanco on tonight. A warm front will brush past to the north late Sunday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty south winds and a building long period northwest swell will accompany the front with seas likely becoming high and steep again. Long- period northwest swell will follow Monday then a thermal trough briefly returns to the coast Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 280524 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 924 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2020

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Section.

There are some changes to the forecast tonight. First, we would like to emphasize the risk for freezing fog. Temperatures are sitting just above freezing in some of the valleys with many hours until sunrise, Saturday morning. Furthermore, the airmass is quite dry aloft and fog is starting to form as of 8 pm this evening. This is a pretty clear threat for spotty ice and slick spots on the less travel roadways, walkways and overpasses if the fog is able to become thick and dense enough. The high clouds moving in could play a role in preventing some of the slick spots. However, we are going to play it safe this evening with issuing a freezing fog advisory for the valleys in Jackson and Josephine Counties.

Previous Discussion.

SHORT TERM . /Issued 412 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2020/

Most of the low clouds and fog have burned off this afternoon, but some of it is still hanging in there over the Rogue and Umpqua Basins. Other than that, there are only scattered high clouds moving through the area.

The ridge axis is breaking to the east of the area. A weak short wave embedded in the flow will move onshore Saturday, and it will push a weak front onshore with it. This system won't affect the Medford forecast area much. At this point it looks like any precipitation will be limited to the coastal waters west of Florence. The north coast around Reedsport may get some very light precipitation from this front, but it will more likely remain dry there. No precipitation is expected over the remainder of the Medford forecast area. There may be a bit of an onshore push Saturday, but it likely will not be enough to change the weather conditions over the inland areas.

Weak ridging will return Saturday night into Sunday. This will allow the stagnant conditions to continue. Inversions over the valleys will be slow to burn off in the daytime and some areas may not clear at all. Winds in the valleys will be light, but above the inversions, dry easterly flow aloft will keep the ridges clear and relatively warm.

A stronger short wave will move in Monday, and this will push a front onshore late Sunday night into Monday. This will be the most significant system between now and next Friday, but it will also be on the weak side.

There will be a good chance of rain from the coast to the Cascades, but amounts will be light. The current forecast shows the most likely precipitation amount to be about 0.10-0.25 of an inch at the coast and over to the Cascades north of Crater Lake with lesser amounts to the south and east. This would bring an inch or less of snow to areas above 4500 feet in the Cascades. The front will weaken as it moves east of the Cascades, so precipitation chances will diminish to less than 10% in parts of Modoc/eastern Lake Counties. The main effect of this front over most of the areas will be to induce some mixing in the air mass, enough to end the Air Stagnation Advisory currently in effect.

However, ridging, and air stagnation, will return, as another ridge will build into the area Monday.

-Stockton

LONG TERM . /Issued 412 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2020/ Tue 01 Dec through Friday night 06-07 Dec 2020.

Strong upper level ridging will be the dominant weather driver during the extended period. This means another period of stagnant weather with dry conditions and overnight/morning fog for west side valleys. The deterministic GFS/EC solutions attempt to bring fronts into the area, but they all wash out as they move into the strong ridge. Model ensembles and cluster analysis support dry conditions during this time and lend to high confidence in this pattern. This pattern isn't likely to change through at least next weekend.

/BR-y

AVIATION . For the 28/06Z TAFs . LIFR cig/vis due to fog/freezing fog will last through late morning. Clearing of the fog is likely to be slow come morning.

A weak front will approach and dissolve along the coast in the early morning, which may disrupt the fog along the coast as higher clouds drift in over top. So confidence on extent and timing is not high. Similarly at Klamath Falls, MOS and other model guidance does not show another night of fog, so did not include it in the TAF, but it can't be ruled out either. -Miles

MARINE . Updated 200 PM PST Friday 27 Nov 2020 . Seas will remain steep through Saturday morning. A weak cold front will dissipate over the waters north of Cape Blanco on Saturday with seas diminishing into Sunday. A warm front will brush past to the north late Sunday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty south winds and a building long period northwest swell will accompany this frontal passage with steep seas hazardous to small craft.

Seas are expected to peak on Monday afternoon with a heavy long- period northwest swell of 13 to 16 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. Seas are expected to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday but a thermal trough will develop at the coast with seas likely remaining steep as north north winds increase over the waters.

-DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST Monday for ORZ023>031. Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ024-026.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi43 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 51°F1024.9 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi31 min E 7.8 G 9.7 53°F1025.3 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi38 minN 00.25 miFog32°F30°F96%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3N3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3SW4NE3CalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmN54CalmNE3CalmNW4CalmSW3S3S3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoS3CalmS4S5S4S33CalmCalmCalmN4NW4W6NW3CalmW5NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmN3W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:49 AM PST     2.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM PST     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:50 PM PST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:16 PM PST     5.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.14.33.52.92.83.245.16.277.36.85.84.32.71.30.40.10.61.634.35.25.7

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:45 AM PST     2.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM PST     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM PST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM PST     5.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.14.33.52.92.83.245.26.377.26.85.74.22.61.20.30.20.71.734.35.25.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.