Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Catskill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
We remain mostly cloudy this morning as a surface warm front just south of the area remains blocked by high pressure over New England. Southwest flow aloft will advect warm and humid air over the warm front maintaining cloudy skies and a few scattered showers. Little instability will be present to support thunderstorms. Daytime highs will likely only be in the 60s in the hill towns and higher terrain with low to mid 70s in valley areas but humidity levels will be on the rise making it feel muggy.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- Increasing confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday as a potent cold front tracks eastward across the Northeast with damaging winds the primary hazard.

- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and uncomfortable humidity levels on Thursday may necessitate heat advisories, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley as heat indices climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Discussion:

Tonight, strengthening warm air and moisture advection combined with an additional weak shortwave tracking northeastward through the southwest flow aloft will likely support clouds and additional areas of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms given some weak elevated instability. Any storm can produce brief heavy downpours given high PWATs nearing 2 inches and high freezing heights above 12kft supporting efficient warm rain processes.

On Wednesday, the warm front may remain hung up over the area with the best chance for clearing west of the Hudson River Valley. Once any cloud breaks develop and allow sun to generate some instability, forecast soundings show a classic "tall skinny CAPE" signature given a very warm/moist atmosphere through the column. Mid-level lapse rates look rather weak under 5.5C/km which should limit severe weather potential but localized heavy downpours are certainly possible from such a humid air mass and unidirectional flow through the column. In fact, PWATS range 2 - 2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS and rank in the 95th+ percentile of the model climatology for mid-June.
Showers/storms diminish Wed night as upper level ridging strengthens aloft but it will remain muggy and uncomfortable overnight.

Attention then turns to Thursday when there are concerns for both heat and severe weather impacts. An intensifying shortwave trough and deepening sfc low tracking northeastward through Ontario. Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of the low will advect a very warm air mass into the Northeast with 850 hPa isotherms +17C to +20C will likely result in high temperatures rising to near 90 in valley areas. Probabilistic guidance has trended upward showing a 10 to 40% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 in valley areas Thurs afternoon. The combination of high humidity and very warm temperatures will result in heat index values around 95 degrees in valley areas which reaches our heat advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor but heat sensitive populations should be mindful of potential heat related impacts (heat stroke/heat exhaustion) on Thursday and limit unnecessary outdoor activities. WPC's HeatRisk continues to show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or level 2 categories as well.

Thursday, we continue to the monitor severe weather potential as well. Guidance has some timing differences. If front arrives during peak heating when instability values are highest this would support organized convection and increased potential for severe weather.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for a period of above normal temperatures early next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to 90% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees in valley areas on Monday. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

Discussion:

Upper level troughing continues into Friday, resulting in additional chances for showers, especially north of I-90.
Temperatures trend relatively cooler and less humid in the wake of the front but it will still be seasonable for mid-June.
Upper level subsidence strengthens in the wake of the trough for Saturday as high pressure builds into the Northeast, giving us a very pleasant Saturday with seasonable temperatures. By Saturday night into Sunday we will have to monitor a potential "ridge roller" as large scale ridging and heat from the Midwest/Ohio Valley builds eastward with guidance hinting at potential shortwaves riding along the northern periphery that could support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms. The hot air mass looks to shift into the Northeast by the early part of next week resulting in possible extreme heat conditions.

AVIATION
Through 06Z Wednesday...Currently VFR conditions are observed at all sites except KPOU where there is an IFR ceiling. Winds are light and variable or from a southerly direction. Radar shows light showers, but they are expanding in coverage across the area. Overnight cigs lower to MVFR at KGFL, KALB and KPSF and visibilites may drop to MVFR during periods of rain and fog. KPOU expected to stay IFR. Some improvement possible all areas on Tuesday during the afternoon during daytime heating although a passing shower may affect any of the TAF sites. A period of steadier rain Tuesday evening may again lower cigs/visby to IFR. Winds remain light an variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.



ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.