Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Talent, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 210526 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 926 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2025

Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs

DISCUSSION

Clear skies have developed this afternoon as temperatures have shot through the 30's and are currently in the upper 40's in most of the valleys west of the Cascades. Closer to the coast, highs are in the upper 50's with some light north east to east flow at 4500 feet. Some higher clouds are starting to shuffle into the forecast area, and they should become more widespread later tonight based on cloud cover from the HRRR model.

By later tonight, we'll likely see more valley stratus and freezing fog in the valleys. The MET and MAV guidance is predicting fog, and low temperatures will be well below freezing in many of the valleys tonight. The high clouds could throw a wrench in things, although we're thinking that the dry layer and inversion strength should usher in plenty of fog.

By Tuesday, mid and low level flow becomes onshore with light westerly winds. No big pattern changes as high pressure remains in control, although the different wind direction could push some lower stratus into the coast Tuesday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will strengthen into Wednesday with the 500 mb ridge centered right over southern Oregon and northern California. The end result should be plenty of freezing fog, some of it being very thick and under 1/4 a mile given the strength of surface high.

Finally, the weather will change around Thursday when the majority of models are predicting an upper level trough and cold front to push through the forecast area. The end result will be a 30 to 40% chance of precipitation across the majority of the forecast area with drier probabilities down to 0 to 20 percent farther south.
Precipitation will likely be light as none of the ensemble members are predicting more than 0.3 inches through this Friday event.
High pressure will settle back in this weekend.

-Smith
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