Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Talent, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 171055 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 355 AM PDT Sat May 17 2025

DISCUSSION
A fairly vigorous upper trough offshore supported by a 150-kt jet will sharpen as upper level energy dives ESE into northern California this morning. Showers have already broken out along the coast, along the Cascades, and across the East Side.
The best forcing is over the East Side where showers and thunderstorms have formed in the last few hours. This is a bit unique to have a sharpening upper trough to swing through in the middle of the night and also to have enough instability present east of the Cascades (about 300-500 J/KG) to support convection.
As such, we expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue through the morning (mainly east of Klamath Falls), with thunderstorms most likely to form in Modoc and Lake counties. We don't expect severe weather, but some of the stronger cells could contain gusty winds, small hail, and, of course, cloud to ground lightning.

The main axis of instability shifts to the east later this morning, but the cold pool aloft will move in, so we'll maintain scattered showers, most numerous near and north of the Rogue/Umqpua Divide, over the Cascades, and from around Winter Rim eastward over the East Side. There is also a risk of thunder in portions of Douglas County Saturday in any of the heavier showers, but isolated (15-20% chance) at best. For the Rogue Valley, showers will be more hit-or-miss. Some areas may have brief downpours, while others miss out all together. Locally breezy conditions develop today as well, especially east of the Cascades in the afternoon where non-thunderstorm wind gusts could be 30-40 mph.
Overall, expect a cooler than normal day with highs generally in the 60-65F range for the west side and 55-60F east of the Cascades. Shower coverage diminishes this afternoon/evening as warmer air aloft moves in, though some may linger into Sunday morning near the Cascades due to moist onshore flow.

Seasonal temperatures under zonal flow aloft is then expected to continue through the week. A couple of weak disturbances passing just to our north may briefly affect conditions for certain locations. On Monday, a weak front could bring some clouds to Coos and eastern Douglas counties. Light showers are possible over these areas on Monday morning and afternoon, but amounts will be one or two hundreths at most. On Wednesday or Thursday, a weak disturbance could bring gusty winds and isolated showers to the northernmost border of the CWA Deterministic guidance for both the ECMWF and the GFS show some upper instability passing over the area, with some variation in timing and structure. Individual ensemble members for both the GFS and ECMWF are split on showing the disturbance or not, and those that show it do so with some variation in timing and location.

Zonal flow continues on Friday, with some uncertainty for the weekend. While both models show some amount of upper level ridging, the strength and position of the ridge vary. The general expectation seems to be additional warming on Saturday and Sunday, but little overall consensus on how warm next weekend will be. NBM probabilistic guidance echos this uncertainty, with daytime highs ranging between seasonal temperatures to 10 degrees above normal.

-Spilde/TAD/BPN
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