Monday, September21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Talent, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:10PM Monday September 21, 2020 8:57 PM PDT (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 9:05PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 813 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 21 2020
.gale watch in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt except nw 5 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. Mixed swell nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..N wind 5 to 10 kt in the morning...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming sw 5 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 kt early in the morning... Becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming sw 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..S wind 5 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind sw 5 kt early in the evening. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, se wind in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 5 ft after midnight. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..S wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, se wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft... Building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft...building to W 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 6 ft... Building to 9 ft and W 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 12 to 14 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 13 to 14 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt...veering to W in the afternoon, then... Becoming N 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 ft...subsiding to 8 ft.
PZZ300 813 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 21 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Sub-advisory conditions with north winds are expected through Tuesday morning. Then, the first fall-like system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday. High and very steep seas are expected with gales possible Wednesday. Winds diminish Wednesday night after the front moves onshore, but seas remain steep due to a heavy west swell Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Talent, OR
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location: 42.23, -122.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 220327 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 827 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2020

DISCUSSION. Satellite imagery are showing some clouds across portions of southern Oregon and northern California. This is from a weak and dry trough which is overhead. Although this trough will not bring any precipitation, it will create some breezy to gusty winds, particularly tomorrow afternoon. This is in the forecast, so no changes are needed at this time.

For more information on the remainder of the forecast, including the next system coming in later in the week, please read the discussion below. -Schaaf

AVIATION. For the 22/00Z TAFs . Along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin . VFR conditions will persist until this evening when marine layer stratus brings LIFR/IFR conditions, persisting overnight into Tuesday morning. Conditions should improve to VFR late Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, wildfire smoke is bringing a mix of IFR/MVFR vsbys across the area. Not much improvement is expected until late tonight into early Tuesday morning and confidence in the extent of improvement is low. /BR-y

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Monday 21 September 2020 . Sub- advisory conditions with north winds will persist through Tuesday morning. Then, the first fall-like system of the season will approach the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds become southerly Tuesday afternoon, increasing late Tuesday with possible gales on Wednesday. Very steep and hazardous wind-driven seas are expected Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Winds will diminish after the front moves onshore late Wednesday, but seas will remain steep due to heavy, long period west swell which will develop rapidly early Thursday, peak Thursday afternoon at around 16 feet at 15 seconds, then slowly subside through Friday night. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 241 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2020/

DISCUSSION . A very slight warming trend is in place leading up to a front that is expected to bring another round of moderate to heavy precip to the region starting Wednesday. Models have backed off on the timing of the front, not bringing any precipitation to the Cascades until Wednesday evening. But before the front moves in southwest winds will increase on the ridges and over the east side. Although the winds will only briefly increase to isolated ridgetops advisory level winds in the Kalmiopsis and the Summer Ridge Wednesday afternoon into the evening, and will not issue a wind advisory for these isolated and unpopulated areas with the short duration of these winds. The main concern with the winds of course will be the effects on existing fires, and in spite of higher humidities feeding into the region ahead of the front, this will still be a concern after more than three months without any rain in the medford area and most of the east side. Fortunately periods of heavy rain at the coast and the coastal ranges and moderate rain in the inland valley to the Cascades, and light rain over much of the east side, move in very shortly after the strong winds. IVT models are currently indicating a weak atmospheric river event as the heaviest precipitation moves in Wednesday night.

Showers taper off into Friday night as the upper trough, slowly transforms into a more zonal flow pattern, but the bulk of the precipitation will be in northwestern portions of the forecast area, and north of the California state line.

As we head into the end of the week an upper level ridge builds back into the Pacific northwest with thermal trough deepening on the coast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. With this pattern intensifying into early next week, temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s in the west side valleys south of the Umpqua Divide, and near 100 degrees in the valleys of western Siskiyou county Monday.

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 100 PM PDT Monday 21 September 2020 .

A weak and dry disturbance is moving through the region today. This is followed by a stronger system with gusty winds and some rains Wednesday into Wednesday night.

This afternoon and evening, expect breezy to gusty winds and dry humidities east of the Cascades. Some breezy to gusty winds are also expected on area ridges. The marine layer should make a push into coastal areas and the Umpqua basin tonight and expect improved recoveries across much of the area. Then the dry and breezy daytime pattern will continue Tuesday, especially for areas east of the Cascades.

On Wednesday, an approaching low pressure system and front, winds will result in stronger and gusty winds across area ridges, for locations east of the Cascades and into valleys oriented southwest to northeast, such as the Illinois Valley. Widespread gusts of at least 35 to 40 mph are expected on area ridges with some locations seeing higher gusts. Valleys are expected to see gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Strongest winds are expected in the late afternoon Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Of note, humidities will be trending higher for areas west of the Cascades in Oregon and in western Siskiyou County with this approaching front on Wednesday. This is expected to keep fire weather conditions below critical levels. However the combination of strong gusty southwest winds with preceding dry conditions is a concern and highlighted in the forecast. East of the Cascades and in northern California in central/eastern Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, expect gusty and dry conditions Wedensday afternoon and early evening. Conditions will near critical levels, especially in eastern/central Lake County, Fire Weather Zone 625, during this period. There may be a brief period of red flag criteria in FWZ 625 as wind gusts around 35 to 40 knots combine with RHs in the upper teens. As of now confidence is low as the strongest winds might not combine with the lowest RHs Wednesday.

Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, the front will move inland and bring rains into western portions of the area. The chance for wetting rain is around 100 percent along the Oregon coast. Wetting rain is also likely over the coastal mountains, into the Umpqua Basin and north-central Cascades from Crater Lake north. Other areas from the Cascades west in Oregon and in far western Siskiyou will see a chance for wetting rain. Elsewhere wetting rain chances decreases significantly.

Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather will continue later Thursday into early Saturday. Strong high pressure is likely to follow with a warming and drying trend from the weekend into early next week.

-CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 81 mi63 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 63°F 60°F1016.4 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 88 mi37 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 60°F1016.9 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 97 mi63 min NW 5.1 G 7 61°F 59°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR11 mi64 minNNE 610.00 miSmoke71°F48°F46%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN3N54W12NW9NW6N7N6
1 day agoN3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N3N3NE3N3N5Calm34N4W6W4S3
2 days agoN5CalmNW3S3CalmS4S5S6S6CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4S4E65CalmN4NW6N8

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:17 AM PDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM PDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:05 PM PDT     7.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM PDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.55.76.36.25.44.232.11.72.13.14.567.17.67.26.24.62.81.20.1-0.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:16 AM PDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM PDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 PM PDT     7.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:54 PM PDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.55.76.36.15.34.12.921.72.23.24.667.17.67.26.14.52.71.10.1-0.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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