Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 8:17 PM   Moonset 5:25 AM

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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 202 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night - .
Tonight - Northern portion, nw wind 5 to 15 kt - . Backing to S late tonight. Brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 20 kt - .easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then - .backing to se late tonight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. SWell and sw 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain. Thu - Northern portion, S wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 25 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, S wind 15 to 25 kt - .becoming 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Fri - W wind 10 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.Fri night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of rain through the night.Sat - NE wind 5 to 10 kt - .veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely. Sat night - S wind 10 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds - .building to 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds after midnight. Rain likely. Sun - S wind 10 kt - .veering to W after midnight. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Mon - NW wind 10 to 15 kt - .veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds.

PZZ300 202 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas will remain calm through tonight. A front expected tomorrow afternoon will bring gusty southerly wind speeds across the waters, especially the northern half of the waters where isolated gales are possible. The result will be steep seas north of gold beach Thursday afternoon and evening when the start of a small craft advisory begins. Then westerly seas will build on Friday with conditions still hazardous to small craft. Additional fronts will move across the area Saturday into early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 242208 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 308 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday night.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into this evening over eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, southern Lake, and far southeastern Klamath counties. This includes the vicinities of Alturas and Lakeview. A few light showers are also popping up over the Cascades. This activity will diminish after sunset this evening.

A significant change to cold and wet weather accompanies a frontal system late tonight into Friday, and post-frontal showers Friday into Friday night. High temperatures on Thursday will be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than today's readings, and a few additional degrees of cooling on Friday.

-DW


LONG TERM
Saturday morning through Wednesday night.

Conditions trend drier around Saturday morning as a ridge sets up over southern Oregon and northern California. This should result in a period of high pressure building and the chance of rain decreasing around Saturday morning. Some warmer moist air will push into the forecast area ahead of the next cold front. This should lead to a persistent light rain along the coast, although it will be drier inland, especially east of the Cascades. Eventually, a cold front will push into the region, although the PoP doesn't change much Saturday evening and Saturday night.

This cool unsettled flow will continue into Sunday with the best chance of precipitation west of the Cascades and within Oregon.
However, locations east of the Cascades and in northern California are anticipated to be dry. This is most likely due to weak forcing and a lack of moisture farther to the south under this zonal flow.
This synoptic pattern will likely continue into Monday as short waves move through this zonal flow.

Eventually, an upper level low out of the Gulf of Alaska will likely push into the Pacific Northwest around Wednesday. However, some of the ensemble members keep this low offshore, which would result in relatively drier weather around mid week. If the low does stay offshore, then GFS does present a very interesting thunderstorm event for the region with ample shear and the potential for building instability. However, this forecast is 7 days away and pretty unlikely with the evolution of the upper level low track.

Overall, the extended forecast looks active yet with little to no impacts. We're lacking significant moisture or forcing to bring impactful rain or snow to the region.

-Smith

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Clouds will continue to infiltrate over the region today and tonight ahead of a front expected tomorrow afternoon. This front will bring rain to the coast, impacting both North Bend and perhaps as far inland as Roseburg before this TAF cycle ends. Medford may see rain, but its more likely to be in the next cycle just beyond 18Z tomorrow. This front will bring low clouds and MVFR conditions to the coast, but inland TAFs may likely stay in VFR for this cycle.

-Guerrero

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Wednesday, April 24, 2024...Relatively calm seas are anticipated today and tonight ahead of an approaching front which is slated to come through Thursday afternoon.

By tomorrow, the approaching front will bring increased wind speeds along the coast and rainfall chances. These wind speeds will create conditions hazardous to small craft and we could see isolated gales across the northern waters. Rainfall chances are very high around 90+% across the waters starting Thursday afternoon. The probability of getting 0.25" or more of rainfall over 12hrs is around 40%-70% for the inner waters Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The probability for wind gusts of 34 knots or greater is only around 20%- 30% and hence the thinking for low end chance of isolated gales, mainly across the northern waters where the strongest wind speeds are anticipated.

The biggest change for this forecast was to extend the small craft advisory both earlier in time and later in time to account changing conditions. We may need to consider adding in portions of the southern waters for later in the week, but we can address this in coming forecast.

We get a little bit of a break Saturday with calmer seas, but the seas become active again starting Sunday and going into next week.
Additionally, this will be a rainy pattern with chances over the waters essentially everyday tomorrow onward. The best chance for rainfall at this time is the early period Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Brookings
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Wed -- 12:08 AM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:58 AM PDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Wed -- 12:07 AM PDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:54 AM PDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 PM PDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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