Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Athens, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue today.

- Lake effect snow showers with light snow accumulations continue across parts of the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley

Discussion:

As of 354 AM EST...

A positively tilted mid and upper level trough continues to impact the Northeast this morning. A short-wave and a cold front is moving across upstate NY and into New England at 0830 UTC. Some lake effect and westerly upslope snow showers have moved into the western Adirondacks and a few snow showers will develop along the western spine of the southern Greens. Some light snow accums of an inch or two will be possible in the Adirondacks Park. Clouds will increase across the Capital Region and Berkshires northward this morning.

The boundary layer flow will veer to the northwest and the snow showers/flurries will shift into the west-central Mohawk Valley.
A few of the flurries may get toward the Capital Region but this system lacks low-level moisture. Cold advection will occur in the wake of the front and the winds will shift to the northwest at 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph. Temps will still run below normal by 5 degrees or so. Highs will be in the mid and upper 20s in the valleys with a few readings around 30F in the Hudson River Valley due to downsloping off the higher terrain.
Max temps will only be in the mid teens to lower 20s over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- High confidence for below normal temps to open the weekend before a moderation of temps to seasonal levels to close it.

- Clipper type low brings isolated to scattered snow showers Sat night into Sun.

Discussion:

The h500 closed circulation associated with the upper trough moves over and east of the region. The boundary layer flow begins to back and some light lake effect snow showers deposit some light snow accums of a coating to a half inch over the western Mohawk Valley and west/southwest Adirondacks. A sfc anticyclone will be building from the Mid Atlantic States. The skies should become clear/mostly clear south of the Tri Cities with light to calm winds. It will be another cold night with lows zero to 5 below over the Adirondack Park, southern Greens and the sheltered valleys of the southeast Catskills. Expect single digits over the rest of the forecast area.

Low and mid level heights briefly rise over eastern NY and western New England to open the weekend. The sfc anticyclone builds in from the south and east. The day should be mostly dry until the afternoon when some weak warm advection will allow for some lake effect snow showers that may drift in over the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley in the mid to late pm.
Partly sunny skies will give way to mostly cloudy skies.
Shallow mixing depths will hold temps below normal Saturday with highs in the mid and upper 20s in the valleys and teens to lower 20s over the higher terrain.

The next short-wave approaches Sat night into Sunday. A clipper-type low approaches from the upper Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario Sat night. Weak isentropic lift occurs with the warm front to the northern stream system. Snow showers tapping lake moisture will break out north and west of the Capital Region. Snow accums of a half inch to two inches may be possible especially over the western Dacks. Lows will be in the teens, but temps may fall early and then rising overnight in the warm advection pattern.

The clipper remains north of the region and the prefrontal trough and cold front swing across the region in the late morning into the afternoon with isolated to scattered snow showers (locally heavy) and flurries. The snow showers will likely be the most persistent over the western Dacks where 2-4" of snow may occur as some lake effect set up in the wake of the front. Temps briefly surge to seasonable reading in the 20s over the higher terrain and low to mid 30s in the major valleys.
Some light snow accums of a coating to an inch may occur from the Capital Region/Berkshires northward. West/northwest winds may increase to 10-20 mph in the wake of the cold front with some gusts 25-35 mph. The winds subside Sun night with some westerly upslope and lake effect snow showers and flurries continuing for the western Dacks and southern Greens with additional light snow accums. Temps fall back into the teens with some single digits over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
- Despite a couple of opportunities for potentially widespread snow showers, the probability for widespread significant accumulations (e.g. those warranting an Advisory or Warning headline) is low.

- Temperatures will begin within normal levels Monday and Tuesday before dropping below normal again for the middle of the week.

Discussion:

Though an unsettled pattern looks to prevail throughout much of the long term forecast period, few if any significant impacts are anticipated for eastern New York and western New England. The new work week looks to start off primarily dry with some high-elevation snow showers in the Southwest Adirondacks courtesy of a possible lingering lake effect band stretching north and east off Lake Ontario. But as flow backs more to the south-southwest upon the passage of a weak shortwave, the band will shift out of our CWA yielding dry conditions briefly regionwide by Monday evening. Highs Monday will be much closer to seasonable norms with mid/upper 20s above 1000 ft and low to upper 30s elsewhere. A low pressure system passing east from the Hudson Bay area Monday night into Tuesday will then drive the passage of a cold front through the region, bringing snow showers mainly to areas north and west of the Capital District, though scattered snow showers will be possible within, south and east as well as in the upslope regions of the Southern Greens. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 10s to 20s with highs Tuesday rising to the 20s and 30s.

With the passage of the aforementioned cold front complete by Tuesday night, surface ridging will build in from the west, reinforcing dry conditions for the start of Wednesday. Guidance then hints at another disturbance that could bring additional snow showers to the region Wednesday into Thursday morning, but timing and evolution of the system is a bit uncertain at this time. General consensus points to a clipper-like track of a low pressure system that would allow snow to spread into the region from southwest to northeast, but there is an outlier in the CMCNH that does not bring the system as far south. This solution would bring more snow to areas north of the Capital District where the former would bring more snow to areas within and south. However, accumulations look to be on the lighter side in both solutions.

With another cold shot of air following Tuesday's cold front, low temperatures Tuesday night will fall to the single digits to low/mid 10s and possible negatives in the Southwest Adirondacks. Wednesday's highs will rank closer to below normal levels again with 10s to 20s and pockets near 20 in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Lows Wednesday night will be similar to those of Tuesday night with highs primarily rising only into the 10s and 20s Thursday. Thursday night will be the coldest of the period with one to ten below zero to single digits regionwide.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this evening with variable cloud cover across eastern New York and western New England ahead of a weak, moisture-starved disturbance.
Clouds will remain variable through the 06z period, with ceilings forming and diminishing around 3-6.5 kft. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible especially at KPSF later this morning into this afternoon before ceilings lift back to VFR levels by this evening. However, precipitation is not a concern within this cycle outside of a possible stray flurry. Otherwise, sustained wind speeds will remain under 10 kt out of the northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.