Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Forest, IL
December 3, 2023 10:01 PM CST (04:01 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 4:21PM Moonrise 11:19PM Moonset 1:03PM
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 752 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest and diminishing to around 10 kt late. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt overnight. Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest and diminishing to around 10 kt late. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt overnight. Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ700
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 032339 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 539 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
SHORT TERM
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Through Tuesday...
Key message...
* The next winter system arrives Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Increasing chances for snow north of I-80, with slushy accumulations less than an inch likely (70%). A rain/snow mix for the south and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Only meaningful change to the forecast tonight into Monday was to remove the slight chance pops for tonight across southern CWA.
Guidance has generally trended a bit farther south with tonight's compact shortwave. Otherwise, prospects for meaningful clearing appear pretty low through Monday. A pocket of clearing opened up across Iowa this afternoon, but as system passes to our south tonight, our low level westerly flow will turn more northerly advecting clouds south from Wisconsin. Kept skies mostly cloudy tomorrow, but confidence in that is only about 60%, so there is a appreciable chance that could be clearing. If skies do clear out, then high temps would likely be a couple/few degrees warmer than forecast.
On Monday night, the next wave in the form of an Alberta Clipper will move southeastward across the region into Tuesday morning. With models trending temperatures for areas north of I-80 below freezing, there is increasing confidence that precipitation will be all snow.
Snow ratios are expected to be on the wetter side (less than 10:1), so accumulations are expected to be slushy, generally less than an inch. With warmer temperatures south of I-80, a rain/snow mix is expected overnight. Since models have trended slightly warmer to the south, accumulations were pared back to just north of I-80. As the sun rises Tuesday morning and temperatures increase, despite the widespread cloud cover, any snowfall should transition to rain/drizzle before the system slowly exits to the east.
DK/Izzi
LONG TERM
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Tuesday night through Sunday...
Key messages...
* Unseasonably warm temperatures likely Thursday and Friday * Somewhat cooler temperatures along with chances (30-60%) for rain over the weekend
In the wake of the Monday night/Tuesday system, the parent long wave trough will begin to quickly shift east of the region with 100-150m 500mb height rises in its wake. This will herald the pattern change as we transition to a more zonal flow with some ridging over the central and eastern U.S. late this week.
Strongest warm air advection Wednesday will take place to our west across the mid section of the nation. By Wednesday night and Thursday, southerly flow will increase across our area accelerating the warm air advection. Confidence is growing that On Monday night, the next wave in the form of an Alberta Clipper will move southeastward across the region into Tuesday morning.
Thursday will be unseasonably warm and have adjusted high temperatures up about 5F from the NBM. Medium range models depict the axis of higher low level moisture (and likely stratus) will remain well west of our area Thursday, meaning a good deal of sunshine is likely. The sunshine, moderately gusty southerly winds, lack of snow cover all favor temps ending up on the higher end of the 925mb high temperature spectrum, which would has highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Didn't go quite that warm yet, but if guidance remains consistent, highs could end up even warmer than today's forecast of mid-upper 50s.
It does appear as though stratus could spill east into the area Thursday night into Friday as the low level moist begins to spread east into the area. Stratus and gusty southerly winds should keep temps unseasonably mild Thursday night with lows in the 40s (warmer than avg highs). The very mild start to the day Friday should set the stage for another unseasonably mild day. If there are breaks in the cirrus, temps could be even warmer on Friday with even temps reaching 60 not out of the question. Given the better chance of stratus on Friday, opted to not bump up temps over NBM yet.
Upper trough is progged to track north of the region next weekend, which should beat down the upper ridge and allow cold front to sag southward across the area bringing somewhat cooler temps to the area. Chances of rain should ramp up some as well, but still lots of spread in the guidance regarding the details (track, timing, etc) of individual shortwaves.
- Izzi
AVIATION
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation concerns:
* MVFR stratus persists through the period
CEILINGS: Cloud bases are expected to remain low-end MVFR (and perhaps briefly IFR) through this evening then gradually lift through the day on Monday. There is the potential (20% chance) that the MVFR stratus scatters out at the Chicago area terminals during the day on Monday while in between weather systems, though this would begin to fill back in during the evening ahead of the next system which arrives just beyond the 30-hr TAF period.
WINDS: West to northwest winds will gradually ease and turn NNW to N overnight then back west Monday afternoon and southwest in the evening ahead of our next weather system.
PRECIP: Dry conditions are currently forecast through the period. There is a narrow axis of drizzle/flurries drifting SE across southern Wisconsin. This may reach the Chicago area terminals, though confidence is too low to include in the TAF. A brief P6SM -SNDZ TEMPO may be needed by 3Z if it manages to hold together into Illinois.
Petr
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 539 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
SHORT TERM
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Through Tuesday...
Key message...
* The next winter system arrives Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Increasing chances for snow north of I-80, with slushy accumulations less than an inch likely (70%). A rain/snow mix for the south and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Only meaningful change to the forecast tonight into Monday was to remove the slight chance pops for tonight across southern CWA.
Guidance has generally trended a bit farther south with tonight's compact shortwave. Otherwise, prospects for meaningful clearing appear pretty low through Monday. A pocket of clearing opened up across Iowa this afternoon, but as system passes to our south tonight, our low level westerly flow will turn more northerly advecting clouds south from Wisconsin. Kept skies mostly cloudy tomorrow, but confidence in that is only about 60%, so there is a appreciable chance that could be clearing. If skies do clear out, then high temps would likely be a couple/few degrees warmer than forecast.
On Monday night, the next wave in the form of an Alberta Clipper will move southeastward across the region into Tuesday morning. With models trending temperatures for areas north of I-80 below freezing, there is increasing confidence that precipitation will be all snow.
Snow ratios are expected to be on the wetter side (less than 10:1), so accumulations are expected to be slushy, generally less than an inch. With warmer temperatures south of I-80, a rain/snow mix is expected overnight. Since models have trended slightly warmer to the south, accumulations were pared back to just north of I-80. As the sun rises Tuesday morning and temperatures increase, despite the widespread cloud cover, any snowfall should transition to rain/drizzle before the system slowly exits to the east.
DK/Izzi
LONG TERM
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
Tuesday night through Sunday...
Key messages...
* Unseasonably warm temperatures likely Thursday and Friday * Somewhat cooler temperatures along with chances (30-60%) for rain over the weekend
In the wake of the Monday night/Tuesday system, the parent long wave trough will begin to quickly shift east of the region with 100-150m 500mb height rises in its wake. This will herald the pattern change as we transition to a more zonal flow with some ridging over the central and eastern U.S. late this week.
Strongest warm air advection Wednesday will take place to our west across the mid section of the nation. By Wednesday night and Thursday, southerly flow will increase across our area accelerating the warm air advection. Confidence is growing that On Monday night, the next wave in the form of an Alberta Clipper will move southeastward across the region into Tuesday morning.
Thursday will be unseasonably warm and have adjusted high temperatures up about 5F from the NBM. Medium range models depict the axis of higher low level moisture (and likely stratus) will remain well west of our area Thursday, meaning a good deal of sunshine is likely. The sunshine, moderately gusty southerly winds, lack of snow cover all favor temps ending up on the higher end of the 925mb high temperature spectrum, which would has highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Didn't go quite that warm yet, but if guidance remains consistent, highs could end up even warmer than today's forecast of mid-upper 50s.
It does appear as though stratus could spill east into the area Thursday night into Friday as the low level moist begins to spread east into the area. Stratus and gusty southerly winds should keep temps unseasonably mild Thursday night with lows in the 40s (warmer than avg highs). The very mild start to the day Friday should set the stage for another unseasonably mild day. If there are breaks in the cirrus, temps could be even warmer on Friday with even temps reaching 60 not out of the question. Given the better chance of stratus on Friday, opted to not bump up temps over NBM yet.
Upper trough is progged to track north of the region next weekend, which should beat down the upper ridge and allow cold front to sag southward across the area bringing somewhat cooler temps to the area. Chances of rain should ramp up some as well, but still lots of spread in the guidance regarding the details (track, timing, etc) of individual shortwaves.
- Izzi
AVIATION
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation concerns:
* MVFR stratus persists through the period
CEILINGS: Cloud bases are expected to remain low-end MVFR (and perhaps briefly IFR) through this evening then gradually lift through the day on Monday. There is the potential (20% chance) that the MVFR stratus scatters out at the Chicago area terminals during the day on Monday while in between weather systems, though this would begin to fill back in during the evening ahead of the next system which arrives just beyond the 30-hr TAF period.
WINDS: West to northwest winds will gradually ease and turn NNW to N overnight then back west Monday afternoon and southwest in the evening ahead of our next weather system.
PRECIP: Dry conditions are currently forecast through the period. There is a narrow axis of drizzle/flurries drifting SE across southern Wisconsin. This may reach the Chicago area terminals, though confidence is too low to include in the TAF. A brief P6SM -SNDZ TEMPO may be needed by 3Z if it manages to hold together into Illinois.
Petr
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 9 mi | 122 min | WNW 5.1G | 36°F | ||||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 24 mi | 62 min | WNW 4.1G | 36°F | 29.85 | |||
| OKSI2 | 26 mi | 122 min | N 2.9G | 40°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 27 mi | 42 min | WNW 15G | 40°F | 37°F | |||
| CNII2 | 30 mi | 32 min | SW 2.9G | 38°F | 31°F | |||
| CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 39 mi | 44 min | N 5.1G | 38°F | 29.83 | 35°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 9 sm | 69 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 34°F | 87% | 29.86 | |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 12 sm | 70 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 30°F | 75% | 29.83 | |
| KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 19 sm | 70 min | WNW 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 37°F | 32°F | 81% | 29.84 |
Wind History from PWK
(wind in knots)
Chicago, IL,
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