Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayville, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

A weak secondary cold front will push south through the western Southern Tier with just the chance for a few isolated showers there this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the region with dry, cooler, and less humid conditions through the end of the work week. Considerable clearing, weak or calm surface winds, and lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should yield patchy radiation fog inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, and patchy steam fog in the lake and river valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region around daybreak Friday.

Surface high pressure will move east into New England, with a southerly return flow advecting a warmer and more humid airmass back in across western and north-central NY from southwest to northeast through the day Saturday. This may lead to some scattered diurnally driven convection across western NY Saturday afternoon, particularly across the interior Southern Tier where the best moisture will be, along with somewhat better forcing closer to a mid level shortwave passing by just to our southeast. A cold front will then cross the area sometime on Sunday...timing is still in question. This will bring the next best chance for a round of showers and scattered storms. At this point wind shear and instability both appear to be modest, thus the severe threat looks low at this time. However, if the frontal timing comes across the area at/near peak heating, the thunderstorm potential could be greater. Will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds from the western Great Lakes through 00Z/Fri. Our regional winds trend W'erly to NW'erly around 5 to 10 knots before 02Z/Fri and between ~14Z/Fri and ~22Z/Fri. Light and variable or calm winds are expected during the remainder of the TAF period. Dry weather and primarily VFR are expected. However, considerable clearing, weak or calm surface winds, and lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should yield patchy radiation fog inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario and patchy steam fog in the lake and river valleys of the Western Southern Tier, including KJHW, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region, including KART, between ~04Z/Fri and ~14Z/Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Dry weather and VFR expected.

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or worse are forecast during most of the time period, but dry weather and VFR are likely Monday through Monday night.

MARINE
Following a brief lull in the stronger winds on the lakes, winds are beginning to freshen (W to NW 15-25 knots) on Lake Ontario ahead of a backdoor cold front that will make southwesterly progress to about the lower Saint Lawrence valley by this evening, before stalling out. This will support SCAs on Lake Ontario through late this evening, with SCAs lingering across eastern and southeastern Lake Ontario into a portion of the overnight.

Pressure gradient and winds off the deck will weaken second half of tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, with light winds and negligible waves Friday through Friday night. South to southwest flow will increase some over the weekend, however conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT Friday for NYZ005-006.
Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for NYZ007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044.