Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayville, NY
December 4, 2023 8:09 AM EST (13:09 UTC)
Sunrise 7:27AM Sunset 4:47PM Moonrise 11:47PM Moonset 12:51PM
LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 642 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers early, then a chance of rain showers. Rain showers likely late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of light snow Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and light snow during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers early, then a chance of rain showers. Rain showers likely late. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of light snow Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and light snow during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 041152 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Colder air in the wake of low pressure pulling east through New England will allow showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times today, especially across the higher terrain, before a transition to mainly snow showers areawide tonight. Light snowfall accumulations possible across the higher terrain today, especially east of Lake Ontario, with some minor accumulations possible east and southeast of the Lakes tonight. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday with just a few lingering light rain or snow showers southeast of the Lakes. A weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak, but steady CAA will continue through today. Cold enough for a lake response on a mainly WSW early, eventually veering W to WNW which will direct any lake enhanced/effect precip ENE initially to E and ESE of both Lakes.
Radar shows band of lake effect (mainly) rain off Lake Erie stretching across portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.
May be a some wet snow mixing in across the hilltops. Expect this to continue this morning while slowly shifting a bit more to the south through the morning as winds veer more W as shortwave crosses the area helping to enhance the activity overall. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario, seeing lake enhanced/upslope rain and wet snow showers (Tug Hill) east of the Lake. As winds veer more WNW through the afternoon expect lake effect ESE of the Lakes to become more upslope dominant as there will more of a cross-lake component in addition to lingering synoptic moisture. Snow showers will become more prevalent across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier this afternoon as well as the Tug Hill as airmass continues to slowly grow colder. Any light snowfall accumulations will be limited to the terrain today.
As for temps, Tug Hill/western Dacks will have afternoon readings near freezing, so may see an inch or so of new snow there.
Otherwise, expect readings to only be a few degrees higher than morning lows under continued weak CAA. This will yield highs mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, mid 30s interior Southern Tier and low 30s Tug Hill/western Dacks.
Shortwave pulls east of the area later tonight stripping away deeper moisture as the night wears on, along with winds veering to NW. An additional inch or less of lake effect/upslope snow will possible across areas E and SE of the Lakes tonight before tapering off.
Cooler tonight with lows mainly in the 20s, some low 30s lake plains and lakeshores.
High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with continued drying, although a cool NW flow will keep a few scattered light rain or snow showers going SE of the Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier. Daytime highs will range from the low 30s across the interior Southern Tier and North Country with mainly mid 30s elsewhere, upper 20s Tug Hill/western Dacks.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
This will be a rather mundane period of weather across our region...
especially considering that we are in the early throws of December.
A phased...highly amplified pattern will be in place across the country as we open this period. As we push through the week though...the pattern will flatten with a deep trough over our region giving way to a progressive ridge. This will guarantee rather uneventful weather...although some nuisance rounds of pcpn can still be expected.
Looking at the details...a vigorous shortwave dropping south from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will pass by just to our west. A swath of moisture associated with this feature will be lifted orographically...especially near the lakes where some lake enhancement will also be in place. This will result in another cloudy night...with nuisance snow showers south and southeast of the lakes. Snowfall amounts will be negligible. The snow 'lollipop' from this event will be in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge where amounts should not exceed an inch or two.
In the wake of the exiting shortwave and ahead of a narrow wedge of high pressure...a chilly northerly upslope flow on Wednesday will help to keep a fair amount of cloud cover over the western counties where there may also be some pockets of light snow showers. It will be a cold day with afternoon temps not far from freezing over the western counties...and only in the upper 20s across the North Country.
The axis of the elongated sfc high will cross our forecast area Wednesday night. While most areas should be able to enjoy a night of pcpn free weather...the onset of warm advection could lead to some light snow over over the far western counties. No need to excited about this...as only scant snowfall amounts are forecast.
On Thursday...a broad mid level ridge will ease its way across the Upper Great Lakes...while a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone associated with a strengthening warm front will be found over the western counties. This will certainly warrant chc pops for a little light snow
focused on the western counties through lunchtime
then over the North country for the bulk of the afternoon. While the ptype will initially light snow...much of this will change to a little rain
Again
problems from this mixed pcpn is NOT expected.
The bulk of the forecast area will be thrust into the warm sector Thursday night...as the progressive mid level ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes while helping to push the aforementioned warm sector to the North country. Will keep chc pops in play for areas generally from Rochester east...and in particular for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to 45 to 50 elsewhere.
After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low.
Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night.
With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period to likely. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).
It is worth noting that guidance has subtley shifted the storm track to the west
If this were to verify
as in the case of the ECMWF...
then close attention would have to be given to the potential for a wind event to end the weekend. Lets not get ahead of ourselves though...as the forecast track is far from being conclusive.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly MVFR CIGS right through the 12Z TAF period, some IFR CIGS (KJHW) remain over higher terrain. Scattered showers for the terminals today into this evening owed to lingering wraparound moisture, with more organized localized lake enhanced/effect showers E and ESE of both Lakes, mostly rain with some wet snow higher terrain. IFR/MVFR in light lake effect snow showers SE of the Lakes tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will remain elevated through today, with SCAs remaining in place through this evening into the first half of tonight for the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario nearshore marine zones. Wind gusts will reach 30 knots on both Lakes, with a few gusts to Gale force possible today.
High pressure over central Quebec this evening will then gradually ridge south across the lower Great Lakes later tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds by early Tuesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Colder air in the wake of low pressure pulling east through New England will allow showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times today, especially across the higher terrain, before a transition to mainly snow showers areawide tonight. Light snowfall accumulations possible across the higher terrain today, especially east of Lake Ontario, with some minor accumulations possible east and southeast of the Lakes tonight. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday with just a few lingering light rain or snow showers southeast of the Lakes. A weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak, but steady CAA will continue through today. Cold enough for a lake response on a mainly WSW early, eventually veering W to WNW which will direct any lake enhanced/effect precip ENE initially to E and ESE of both Lakes.
Radar shows band of lake effect (mainly) rain off Lake Erie stretching across portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.
May be a some wet snow mixing in across the hilltops. Expect this to continue this morning while slowly shifting a bit more to the south through the morning as winds veer more W as shortwave crosses the area helping to enhance the activity overall. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario, seeing lake enhanced/upslope rain and wet snow showers (Tug Hill) east of the Lake. As winds veer more WNW through the afternoon expect lake effect ESE of the Lakes to become more upslope dominant as there will more of a cross-lake component in addition to lingering synoptic moisture. Snow showers will become more prevalent across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier this afternoon as well as the Tug Hill as airmass continues to slowly grow colder. Any light snowfall accumulations will be limited to the terrain today.
As for temps, Tug Hill/western Dacks will have afternoon readings near freezing, so may see an inch or so of new snow there.
Otherwise, expect readings to only be a few degrees higher than morning lows under continued weak CAA. This will yield highs mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, mid 30s interior Southern Tier and low 30s Tug Hill/western Dacks.
Shortwave pulls east of the area later tonight stripping away deeper moisture as the night wears on, along with winds veering to NW. An additional inch or less of lake effect/upslope snow will possible across areas E and SE of the Lakes tonight before tapering off.
Cooler tonight with lows mainly in the 20s, some low 30s lake plains and lakeshores.
High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with continued drying, although a cool NW flow will keep a few scattered light rain or snow showers going SE of the Lakes. Meanwhile, a weak Clipper system will then pass by to our southwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night, possibly bringing some light snow to the western Southern Tier. Daytime highs will range from the low 30s across the interior Southern Tier and North Country with mainly mid 30s elsewhere, upper 20s Tug Hill/western Dacks.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
This will be a rather mundane period of weather across our region...
especially considering that we are in the early throws of December.
A phased...highly amplified pattern will be in place across the country as we open this period. As we push through the week though...the pattern will flatten with a deep trough over our region giving way to a progressive ridge. This will guarantee rather uneventful weather...although some nuisance rounds of pcpn can still be expected.
Looking at the details...a vigorous shortwave dropping south from the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will pass by just to our west. A swath of moisture associated with this feature will be lifted orographically...especially near the lakes where some lake enhancement will also be in place. This will result in another cloudy night...with nuisance snow showers south and southeast of the lakes. Snowfall amounts will be negligible. The snow 'lollipop' from this event will be in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge where amounts should not exceed an inch or two.
In the wake of the exiting shortwave and ahead of a narrow wedge of high pressure...a chilly northerly upslope flow on Wednesday will help to keep a fair amount of cloud cover over the western counties where there may also be some pockets of light snow showers. It will be a cold day with afternoon temps not far from freezing over the western counties...and only in the upper 20s across the North Country.
The axis of the elongated sfc high will cross our forecast area Wednesday night. While most areas should be able to enjoy a night of pcpn free weather...the onset of warm advection could lead to some light snow over over the far western counties. No need to excited about this...as only scant snowfall amounts are forecast.
On Thursday...a broad mid level ridge will ease its way across the Upper Great Lakes...while a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone associated with a strengthening warm front will be found over the western counties. This will certainly warrant chc pops for a little light snow
focused on the western counties through lunchtime
then over the North country for the bulk of the afternoon. While the ptype will initially light snow...much of this will change to a little rain
Again
problems from this mixed pcpn is NOT expected.
The bulk of the forecast area will be thrust into the warm sector Thursday night...as the progressive mid level ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes while helping to push the aforementioned warm sector to the North country. Will keep chc pops in play for areas generally from Rochester east...and in particular for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to 45 to 50 elsewhere.
After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low.
Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night.
With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period to likely. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).
It is worth noting that guidance has subtley shifted the storm track to the west
If this were to verify
as in the case of the ECMWF...
then close attention would have to be given to the potential for a wind event to end the weekend. Lets not get ahead of ourselves though...as the forecast track is far from being conclusive.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly MVFR CIGS right through the 12Z TAF period, some IFR CIGS (KJHW) remain over higher terrain. Scattered showers for the terminals today into this evening owed to lingering wraparound moisture, with more organized localized lake enhanced/effect showers E and ESE of both Lakes, mostly rain with some wet snow higher terrain. IFR/MVFR in light lake effect snow showers SE of the Lakes tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will remain elevated through today, with SCAs remaining in place through this evening into the first half of tonight for the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario nearshore marine zones. Wind gusts will reach 30 knots on both Lakes, with a few gusts to Gale force possible today.
High pressure over central Quebec this evening will then gradually ridge south across the lower Great Lakes later tonight and Tuesday.
This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds by early Tuesday morning.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-043-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY | 14 sm | 13 min | WSW 13G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 34°F | 93% | 29.78 | |
| KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY | 21 sm | 16 min | SW 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 36°F | 81% | 29.79 |
Wind History from DKK
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
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