Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Madison, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through early this week. The warmest days will be Monday and Tuesday when highs may approach daily records at a few sites. Cooler temperatures behind a cold front mid to late week.

2) Localized strong to severe storms possible across Northwest Ohio tomorrow. Widespread showers and storms Tuesday into early Wednesday, with severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer and more humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Highs warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Area dewpoints will peak in the mid-60s each afternoon. We will remain warm overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing little overnight relief. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel noticeably warm. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

A cold front will swing east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for a reprieve from above normal temperatures.
Cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before highs reach the 70s Friday into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We'll begin the week mainly dry with some potential for showers and thunderstorms across the west in the afternoon and evening as an upper shortwave moves overhead. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a small portion of Northwest Ohio to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending along a line from Marblehead to Carey and points west. This severe threat is driven by the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail and supported by a narrow corridor of moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg) given the warm and moist advection. Expect for any convection that moves into the region to decrease in intensity as it pushes east into a less favorable environment Monday night.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be likely on tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The entire forecast area is either under a Slight or Marginal Risk for severe weather with the delineation occurring along a line from Corry PA to Mount Gilead. Areas west of this line are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and areas east and south of this line under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). The primary hazards will again be damaging winds and large hail given the instability and stronger low/mid level flow.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the airspace on the warm west side of high pressure and the next weather system slowly moving through the Midwest. Elevated southwest winds with gusts of 20-25 kts will subside over the next couple of hours along with any remaining cumulus from this afternoon. A strong low level jet entering the region overnight will present a brief LLWS window for the western terminals of KTOL and KFDY. For the daytime hours on Monday, expecting mostly clear conditions with elevated south to southwest winds returning in the warm sector and gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Toward the end of the TAF period, showers and potentially some storms may approach KTOL and KFDY but most of the impacts are probably going to be after the TAF period. Some mid-level clouds will start to enter the KCLE area with the extra 6-hours in the TAF.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at western terminals Monday night. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday.

MARINE
Light and variable winds this afternoon will give way to south winds around 10 knots tonight. Offshore flow will deepen in the western basin Monday afternoon with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 20 knots during peak diurnal mixing. At this point, it appears that winds should remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria and the higher waves will be focused into the open waters. Southwest winds around 10 knots will continue Monday night, however winds will likely reach 15 to 20 knots (possibly as high as 20 to 25 knots) in the western and central basin Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front Wednesday and expect onshore flow 10 to 15 knots to continue through Wednesday night before winds shift to the northeast by Thursday. Winds/waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory limits later this week, although some choppiness is likely with the onshore flow.

CLIMATE
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.