Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Madison, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A majority of tonight will feature mostly cloudy and chilly but quiet conditions. Lows are generally expected to bottom out in the low to mid 20s, with some 10s across the higher terrain of the snowbelt and perhaps out west of Toledo. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes late tonight and push a cold front into the local area. The front probably won't quite get to Cleveland by 12z/7 AM Saturday. A few flurries or snow showers may occur across northern counties as the front approaches, particularly near the Erie PA lakeshore. Any accumulations of snow through 7 AM Saturday will be minimal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
-Lake effect snow (initial rates <1" per hour) pushes onshore northeast of Cleveland behind a cold front Saturday morning.
-A clipper brings light snow to much of the area Saturday afternoon and evening, with heavier amounts focused south of US 30.
-Lake effect intensifies along and near I-90 northeast of Cleveland late Saturday afternoon and evening, with peak snow rates of 1-1.5" per hour within bands. Lake effect spreads farther inland late Saturday night into Sunday before winding down late Sunday night.
-Coldest air of the young winter so far arrives Saturday night.

The main focus for the weekend will be a clipper bringing at least a light accumulation of snow to the entire area Saturday afternoon and evening, followed by lake effect snow that lingers into Sunday night southeast of Lake Erie. An assortment of Winter Weather Advisories and Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been issued (the reasoning for a lake effect warning vs. winter storm is the large majority of the snow in these counties being caused or enhanced by the lake). There has been a subtle trend to nudge the clipper and its associated swath of snow just a bit farther south/southeast with the latest run of guidance, not enough to change the message much. There has not been notable change to the general lake effect setup, aside from increased hi-res guidance coming into range and allowing for some better fine-tuning.

Outside of the snow...

Temperatures on Saturday will reach their highs in the morning to around midday, ranging from the mid 20s to near 30, warmest east of I-71. Temperatures will likely slide slowly through the afternoon.
Lows Saturday night will range from the upper single digits to 10s.
Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s, with lows Sunday night again the single digits to 10s. Wind gusts of up to 35 MPH are possible near the eastern lakeshore on Saturday, with occasional gusts 20-30 MPH elsewhere this weekend. This could lead to a bit of blowing/drifting snow, though the biggest story will be wind chills, falling to 0 to -10 degrees Saturday night/early Sunday and a slightly "less cold" -5 to 5 degrees Sunday night/early Monday.

For areas not impacted by the lake enhanced / effect snow...

The first half of Saturday outside of the snowbelt will be mostly cloudy and chilly but quiet ahead of the clipper. Do have a low chance for flurries or snow showers across much of the area early Saturday as the cold front mentioned at the end of the near term crosses. This should not lead to much snow as the bulk of the forcing is missing the area to the north, perhaps some localized dustings.

Widespread snow with the clipper will spread in quickly between 1-5 PM Saturday. Today's guidance has trended perhaps slightly more suppressed with the shortwave responsible for the clipper (due to the lobe of the polar vortex pressing into the Great Lakes a bit more), though not enough to notably change the forecast or messaging. The greatest mid-level frontogenesis/lift and hence heaviest snowfall is expected to setup along and south of I-70 late Saturday afternoon and evening, though some of this stronger lift may briefly get into southern portions of our area. This is a quick hitter, with the widespread snow expected to exit between 8 PM - midnight Saturday night, giving way to hit/miss lingering snow showers outside of the snowbelt. The highest snow to liquid ratios will likely reside across southern portions of our area, where the lift is most likely to intersect the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) at times. Farther north, particularly towards Toledo, the strongest lift will likely stay above the DGZ, meaning a lower ratio and more "dusty" snow. QPF has been nudged just a touch south with this update. Overall snowfall with the clipper is generally 0.5-2" across the Toledo area, increasing to 1-3" across the rest of Northwest Ohio over towards Findlay/Norwalk and 2-4" across the rest of the area. It will be cold and this snow will stick to roads, slowing travel late Saturday into Saturday night across much of the area. In collaboration with surrounding offices, hoisted an advisory for the clipper snow where at least a solid 3" or more of snow is in the forecast for a county.

For locations impacted by the lake effect snow...

Some lake effect will spread onshore along the I-90 corridor northeast of Cleveland Saturday morning with and behind the initial cold frontal passage, as mean boundary-layer flow shifts from southwest to closer to due west. The initial lake effect setup through early Saturday afternoon will not be all that impressive, with lake-induced equilibrium level (EL) heights only rising to 6-8k feet, bringing instability and lift only into the lower portions of the DGZ.
Instability will be rather marginal initially, with mid-level moisture also lacking. Still, there may be enough of a burst of snow at least into Erie County PA to have some impact (perhaps a quick 1 to 3"), so began the LES Warning for Northwest PA at 12z/7 AM Saturday.
Opted to begin all Ohio headlines at 18z/1 PM, as any snow with the initial push Saturday morning along I-90 in OH will be fairly minor.
The lake effect likely lulls for a few hours late Saturday morning and early afternoon behind the cold front in some brief subsidence.

A more general light snow will overspread the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA as a clipper goes by. Not to repeat too much from above, though this has nudged south perhaps just a tick in latest guidance, not enough to substantially change the forecast. The clipper looks to bring a general 1-3" of snow (without lake enhancement) to the Cleveland metro area and primary/secondary snowbelt region late Saturday afternoon and evening before exiting.

The increased synoptic moisture and lift with the clipper will help to re-invigorate the lake snow (technically lake enhanced) later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Lake-induced instability still will not be deep at this point with lake-induced ELs hanging in the 6-8k foot range...however, falling 850mb temperatures of -13 to 16C the first half of Saturday night will support increasing low- level instability over the ~3C lake waters (east of the islands) and will also push the DGZ lower and into the relatively shallow lake- enhanced snow bands, increasing snow:liquid ratios within the lake snow. With mean boundary layer flow in the 270-290 degree range (west to slightly north of due west) over the lake and hi-res models depicting decent convergence along the shoreline from near Cleveland up I-90, this suggests lake enhanced bands becoming more intense and efficient near and just inland from the lakeshore late Saturday afternoon and evening. Rates may reach 1" per hour at times...mainly from northern/eastern Cuyahoga County into Lake, northern/central Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie, and northern Crawford. This is yet another event where the amount of snowfall near the lakeshore in Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie Counties is not a slam dunk forecast...though if the lakeshore does get heavy snow, it'd most likely be in this window late Saturday afternoon and evening. If the banding settles just south of the lakeshore in this window the forecast there will bust too high. Still, given clear potential for banding to impact locations closer to the lake early in the event did include the lakeshore zones in the warning, even if confidence isn't quite as high as just inland.

A relative lull is expected in the lake effect overnight Saturday night into pre-dawn Sunday. Not that it'll entirely stop, though as winds veer a bit more northwesterly behind a trough passage and as we get into brief subsidence behind the clipper the snow will probably push farther inland...perhaps getting into northeast Lorain, more of Cuyahoga, southern Geauga, northeastern Summit, northern Portage, and Trumbull...but also lose some organization overnight Saturday night.

Lake effect likely re-organizes Sunday morning. The core of the upper trough and cold air aloft will rotate over the area during the day Sunday. An increase in synoptic moisture and lift ahead of the main upper trough axis should combine with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft to support the lake effect as we get into Sunday morning. Winds will veer more northwesterly on Sunday and even north-northwest for a time Sunday evening and night. The shortening fetch and inherently dry nature of Arctic airmasses does lead to some question of the quality and organization of lake effect snow on Sunday, though guidance currently depicts some synoptic moisture/support along with upstream moisture connections to other lakes, which would help to offset those concerns. After another subtle shortwave rotates through late Sunday on the backside of the departing upper trough, ridging starts build from the west Sunday night into Monday. The snow forecast for Sunday and Sunday night is still a bit far out for higher res guidance to latch onto, so do expect some adjustments as we come into range.
However, expect a high snow:liquid ratio to persist on Sunday as forecast soundings show the strongest instability, moisture, and lift intersecting the DGZ at times. It's worth noting that the airmass will be cold/dry enough that snow ratios will likely be lower outside of organized/deeper bands, with small flakes and a "dustier" snow.
However the heavier bands, which will likely be very dependent on upstream connections (to Lakes Huron and Michigan) as winds veer northwesterly, should produce very fluffy snow and efficient accumulations. A fairly intense band with connection to Lake Huron may take most of Sunday night to weaken across either far Northeast OH or Northwest PA, though expect other activity to start losing steam Sunday evening. The northwest winds will support the bulk of accumulations occurring across inland and higher terrain portions of the primary and secondary snowbelt, with some hints at occasional banding as far southwest as Lorain/Medina/Stark/Mahoning on Sunday.

Upgraded the Watch to a Warning from Cuyahoga County points east, though note that the warning in Ohio kicks in at 18z/1 PM Saturday.
The potential for west-east bands to bring 1" per hour snow rates late Saturday into Saturday night, along with storm total accumulations of 6-12" from eastern Cuyahoga County points east (locally up to 14" in southern Erie County), supports the warning. As mentioned above, there is some "bust" potential in lakeshore zones given the second portion of the event will favor inland locales, though the lakeshore communities do have a chance to see heavy snow early on in the event.
Also included surrounding counties (Lorain, Medina, Summit, Stark, Portage, Trumbull and Mahoning) in an advisory for a combination of snow from the clipper and lake effect. The end times to these headlines are staggered between late Sunday and early Monday. Will need to monitor Medina, Summit, Portage, and Trumbull for some warning upgrades as we get into the event. Would like to see hi-res models come into range and better pin down where heavier bands may extend into these secondary snowbelt counties before attempting any warnings.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
-After a cold Monday, generally quiet weather with a moderating trend is expected through Wednesday. The next rain chance is Thursday.

There may be a bit of lingering lake effect snow across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA early Monday, but it'll be on its way out. We'll still be in the thick of the cold on Monday, though a notable warming trend begins on Tuesday. A fairly quiet first half of the week is expected, with a cold front bringing a high likelihood for rain late Wednesday night and Thursday. A brief cold snap may follow the front to end the week, though the general pattern will be turning much more zonal so a prolonged cold stretch is not expected.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
MVFR ceilings between 2-3kft have push east across much of the area, except the far eastern tier of counties. These terminals will soon drop to MVFR as well, with all terminals remaining with MVFR ceilings for much of the period. These conditions will remain status quo for much of tonight before an arctic front impacts the area Saturday. Early Saturday, a lake effect band of snow is expected to push inland around 13Z and will impact KERI through the morning hours. There is a chance that KCLE and KYNG also see impacts from this band, but confidence was too low in those sites to include a mention of snow.

By Tuesday afternoon, widespread snow showers will develop and impact all terminals. Expect to see periods of IFR to LIFR visibilities at terminals, especially where the heaviest bands of snow develop. Confidence is high in visibilities less than 2SM at all sites with terminals along and east of I71 likely to drop to 1SM or less at times. The worst conditions areawide is expected to be this afternoon into the evening/early overnight hours before gradually improving for western terminals by the end of this period. It is doubtful that any terminals rebounds all the way to VFR by 06Z Sunday, but will have to monitor trends in the snowfall to best determine that throughout the day.

Light winds from the southwest will increase to 10-15 knots by Saturday morning. Local gusts up to 20 knots are possible with the highest confidence of gusty winds across western terminals. These winds will gradually back to become west- northwesterly by Saturday afternoon and calm to 5-10 knots. The exception being the lakeshore where winds may remain elevated.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible as Lake effect snow continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday through Monday night.

MARINE
Active marine conditions will return to Lake Erie tonight as an arctic cold front crosses the lake Saturday morning. Ahead of this front, WSW winds will increase to 20-30 knots tonight into early Saturday morning. After the passage of the front, W winds will slightly decrease to 15-25 knots from mid morning Saturday through the evening before turning NW and increasing again to 20-30 knots Saturday night and Sunday behind a secondary front. This will build wave heights to 5-9 feet in the central and eastern basins at times Saturday through Sunday. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday night while becoming W. Hoisted Small Craft Advisories late tonight through Monday morning, except have the far western basin from Maumee Bay to the Islands expiring at 18Z Saturday since there should be a roughly 9 hour break in the winds there Saturday afternoon and evening before potentially increasing enough again for another issuance Saturday night into Sunday.

After a short break Monday morning, WSW winds will increase to 20-30 knots again in the afternoon before decreasing Monday night, so another short Small Craft headline will be needed for Monday. SW winds will average 10-20 knots Monday night and Tuesday, but another system moving into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday could raise winds to 15-25 knots again, so additional Small Craft headlines will be needed for mid week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ010-020>023.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ011>014-089.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ029>031-036>038-047.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for OHZ032-033.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.