NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
6:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes.
Light radar returns are spreading westward into NW PA, but this is falling as virga due to dry low-levels, so kept PoPs out of the forecast this morning.

Original Discussion...

The trend toward little to no rain has continued for today as ridging at the surface and aloft suppresses the remnant tropical low farther south. Infrared satellite and water vapor loops this morning show a vertically stacked, closed low centered over the western Carolinas with associated mid and high level clouds streaming northward into northern Ohio and NW PA, especially east of I-77. Regional radar shows a few light showers over southwestern PA to the east of Pittsburgh moving northwest, but abundant dry air and subsidence will eat away at these as they approach later this morning into the afternoon. The aforementioned mid/upper ridging across the Great Lakes this morning will further amplify today through Thursday in response to a northern stream mid/upper shortwave and associated closed low progressing through the northern Plains along the US/Canadian border and a southern stream mid/upper closed low swinging into southern California. This will cause the old closed low over the western Carolinas/Appalachians today to start to drift back toward the coast tonight and Thursday. With this being said, any showers that can reach our CWA only have a window of about 12 more hours to do so before the forcing starts to exit, but as mentioned above, the dry air will likely win out. Essentially dropped all PoPs through this afternoon except for slight chances in Crawford County, PA. The main impact will be a continuation of high and mid-level cloud cover today that will filter the sunshine again, mainly over NE Ohio and NW PA.
These clouds will gradually exit to the east tonight and Thursday as the low moves back to the coast and ridging strengthens from the north and west.

Highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s today, coolest in far NE Ohio and NW PA where the cloud cover will be more persistent. Highs Thursday will return to the low 80s areawide, with mid 80s in NW Ohio. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Higher dew points today and tonight could lead to patchy fog in typical spots of the central highlands, NW Ohio, and interior NE Ohio early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will continue to remain dominant across the area through the short term period, allowing for dry, sunny, and warm conditions to persist. As a result, drought conditions are expected to expand in the coming days. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will persist through at least Sunday, but the overall pattern looks to become more active with that high finally breaking down. Models diverge quite a bit this far out, but generally agree that a low pressure system will track out of the Upper Plains towards Canada and bring a cold front across the area early next week. Exact timing remains very uncertain, but opted to introduce a slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. Will have to continue to monitor for any severe and heavy rain potential as the very dry antecedent conditions will result in additional runoff.
Temperatures will gradually cool through the period, beginning on Sunday in the low to mid 80s before dropping into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Mainly VFR will continue through the TAF cycle, except confidence is increasing that some fog and mist will develop tonight in typical areas of the central highlands and interior NE Ohio, so added some MVFR visibilities at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG after 08Z as a starting point. They could go lower. Otherwise, just high and mid-level clouds are expected for today and tonight.

Light E to SE winds early this morning will become E to NE at 5-10 knots this afternoon, especially near the lakeshore at KTOL, KCLE, and KERI as the lake breeze quickly pushes through.
Winds will turn light E to SE again this evening and tonight.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Sunday. Non-VFR possible in showers as early as Sunday night.

MARINE
As high pressure remains dominant over Lake Erie, quiet marine conditions are expected to persist with winds sustained at 10-15 knots and waves generally 2 feet or less. Through at least Sunday, a similar wind pattern will develop with southeast-easterly winds overnight shifting to northeasterly during the daytime. As a result, waves may locally build up to 3 feet during the afternoon hours. By early next week, winds will become sustained from the southeast at 10-15 knots as a low pressure system over the north central US moves a cold front toward the area. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.