Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Madison, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
9:35 AM Update: A small vort max is pushing off of Lake Erie and into far Northeast OH/Northwest PA, with an increase in clouds and a few showers. Sky cover is expected to increase elsewhere as a spoke of low-level moisture and some daytime heating lead to cumulus development. Likely will be a relative lull in lake effect clouds/showers behind this vort max, with some increase in lake effect activity through this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A pair of cool late May days are expected across the area, as a pesky low pressure system starts to depart the region and the rain will begin to exit today. This morning, the bulk of the rain was limited to a lake enhanced band that was passing from Huron to Canton with some showers getting into the Cleveland and Akron metros. Drier air has eroded the cloud deck in Northwest Ohio where the I-75 starts cool and clear. Winds will back a touch today as the main low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes starts to get absorbed by a larger low over New England. This will allow for the lake enhanced rain showers to pivot east through NE OH and NW PA today and become more scattered in nature. Wind will veer tonight and some cooler air will settle into the region with 0 to -2C at 850 mb and some more lake enhanced rain showers could redevelop into far NE OH and NW PA and have a brief surge up to likely PoPs in this area. A trough will remain across the area on Saturday and could allow for some rain to continue in the snowbelt region, but the forcing to support rain will start falling apart as high pressure enters from the northwest and the main upper low that has plagued the region will depart to the east. Temperatures will be below normal for the period with highs likely not escaping the 50s for most today and a range of lower 50s to lower 60s for Saturday. Lows tonight will remain cool in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The stubborn mid/upper trough and associated closed low will continue to gradually shift east of the region Saturday night and Sunday, but one more mid-level shortwave and associated vort max will drop through the trough Sunday. An unseasonably strong 120-125 knot H3 jet streak rotating around the base of the shortwave trough and favorable positioning beneath the right entrance region will lead to scattered showers in NW PA Sunday, with peak coverage during daytime heating. With this in mind, NBM slight chance to chance PoPs in NW PA Sunday afternoon look reasonable. Surface high pressure from the Upper Midwest will finally slide into the central Great Lakes region Sunday night and Monday to allow for dry conditions areawide. This combined with rising heights aloft as mid/upper shortwave ridging builds ahead of another mid-level closed low rotating into the Northern Plains will lead to moderating temperatures in addition to the dry weather for the start of the work week. Warm air advection and isentropic ascent tries to bring showers into the region from south to north as early as Monday night, but deterministic and ensemble guidance are trending toward the surface high over the northern Great Lakes remaining in place longer. This will likely hold the warm frontal boundary toward the Ohio River Valley and keep us drier. All of this being said, cut back NBM PoPs Monday night.

Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday (coolest in NW PA) will warm into the mid to upper 60s Monday. Lows will fall into the low to mid 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, with a few upper 30s possible in NW PA. Milder lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The aforementioned mid-level closed low over the Northern Plains will drift around that general area through mid and late week, with confidence very low on when and how it may eject toward our region.
All of the deterministic runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian have been handling it differently with little in the way of continuity since it becomes displaced between persistent west coast mid/upper ridging and a series of mid/upper troughs dropping through Quebec late in the week. Stayed with NBM PoPs Tuesday through Thursday, although slowed down the onset of highest PoPs given the slower exit of the surface high over the Great Lakes and uncertainty with where and when the closed low will move. Temperatures will be more seasonable, but still several degrees below normal. Expect highs in the mid/upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday to moderate into the upper 60s/low 70s Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
Mainly VFR this afternoon with ceilings around 4,000 feet, with some MVFR persisting across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA, including ERI. Expecting clouds to scatter out tonight west/ southwest of a CLE-CAK line, with ceilings likely lingering farther northeast. Ceilings will remain high MVFR to low VFR.
Ceilings will likely persist into Saturday across Northeast OH into Northwest PA, with low VFR (likely around 5,000 feet)
cumulus potentially re-developing into a ceiling farther west by Saturday afternoon. Patchy valley fog is possible in Northwest and North Central OH early Saturday morning, but odds of impacting any TAF sites are currently <30%, precluding a mention in any TAFs. West-northwest winds are currently 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Winds will persist out of the west-northwest through the TAF period, diminishing to 4-8kt tonight (ERI and CLE likely stay slightly stronger), and increasing slightly to 6-12kt during the day Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with low ceilings remaining in Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA on Saturday.

MARINE
Breezy and choppy conditions will continue on Lake Erie today as NW winds of 15-25 knots build 3 to 6 foot waves. The largest waves will be in the central and eastern basins, so Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for a high risk of rip currents will continue. Winds and waves will gradually subside tonight, with W winds of 10-15 knots expected Saturday then NW winds of 5-10 knots Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will turn NE at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday, increasing to 10-20 knots Monday night and Tuesday. Winds and waves will be near Small Craft headline criteria by Tuesday in the western and central basins given the long NE fetch down the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ009>012- 089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.