Lake Bluff, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Bluff, IL

April 23, 2024 2:52 AM CDT (07:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM
Moonrise 7:45 PM   Moonset 5:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 957 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 22 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .

Rest of tonight - South winds 20 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then periods of showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday night - West winds 20 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt in the late evening. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the early evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.

Wednesday - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft late.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024


- Low-topped showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Level 1/5 severe weather threat from about 3 to 8 pm NW of I-55 and north of I-80.

- Areas of frost likely (60%+ chance) late Wednesday night.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday with locally heavy rain.

Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Through Wednesday:

Recent analyses reveal frontogenesis is intensifying across southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska early this morning as 35 to 40 kt 700 mb southwesterlies are intercepting northwesterly flow at the leading edge of an advancing disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms have been gradually expanding in the vicinity of this region of enhanced warm advection, and we'll continue to see an expansion as this disturbance translates eastward through the morning. Seems like there's been a modest northward wobble with the track/location of the primary f-gen circulation, which will be overlapped by strengthening upper jet divergence later this morning and towards midday. Latest indications are the main shield of rain will set up perhaps just north of I-80 and points south. A pretty formidable dry layer across northern Illinois will likely chew away at precipitation chances. We continue to see a signal for a brief period of gustier winds developing this morning (8 am to 11 am) on the northern terminus of the rain shield as sub-cloud evaporation and deeper mixing works to transport 35 to 40 knot flow associated with a diurnally weakening low-level jet towards the surface. Don't have gusts as high as some of the hires guidance reflected in the gridded forecast, although did nudge gusts up a bit in this corridor across the Kankakee River and up towards I-80.

This main slug of stratiform rain will push south of the region through the early afternoon. Attention will then turn towards the main upper vort and an initial pre-frontal trough feature.
Guidance continues to depict a rapid steepening of 0-3 km lapse rates north and west of I-55, as well as surface dewpoints increasing through the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. While these values typically wouldn't be associated with surface based instability, 500 mb temperatures will be falling towards about -25 C during the afternoon across northern Illinois as the parent trough presses southward across Wisconsin. This combination is expected to yield a pretty quick increase in instability in a narrow ribbon along and just ahead of a northwest wind shift. While MLCAPE values won't be particularly high--only about 500 J/kg within this narrow axis--most of it will occur within the 0-3 km layer where a fair amount of veering and strengthening of the wind field will be taking place.

The current expectations are for scattered low-topped convection to develop, possibly as early as 2 PM, but most likely during the 3 to 8 PM time frame as the more notable cooling at 500 mb occurs. With equilibrium levels progged to only be about 20 kft or so, effective deep layer shear will be reduced a bit as it'll be occurring within the roughly 0-3 or 0-4 km layer. Still, guidance depicts deep shear values nearing 40 knots as an impressive 90 kt 500 mb jet streak intensifies overhead. This will certainly be sufficient to facilitate some degree of storm and updraft organization and mid-level rotation.

Given the steep lapse rates and low freezing levels, hail (mainly small, but a few instances up to the size of quarters) along with strong/gusty winds will be the main threats with any more developed cores. With the cold temperatures aloft, LCLs aren't forecast to be all that high today even amidst 50 degree dewpoints, and sufficient looping/clockwise turning hodographs below 2 km suggest that the (brief) tornado threat, while low, isn't entirely zero today. Most hires guidance is suggesting that cells won't necessarily be tied to the region of enhanced near- surface vorticity on the wind shift (instead forming a bit ahead of it), but if any updrafts do manage to sustain in that narrow ribbon, a hybrid supercell/landspout tornado threat could also emerge on the wind shift boundary itself. The main area of interest for the strong-severe threat is roughly NW of I-55 and north of I-80. Convection will probably continue for an hour or three after sunset but should gradually diminish with the loss of heating.

The true cold front will arrive late this evening. Cold advection will send temperatures back into 30s tonight. Across interior northern Illinois, overnight lows will probably dip towards freezing in spots. This doesn't look like much of a frost set up given the expected winds, and with such a limited area of near- freezing temperatures, don't anticipate needing freeze warnings for the region tonight. Wednesday will feature highs in the low to mid 40s near the lake, with low to mid 50s farther inland. There's some uncertainty regarding how expansive post-frontal stratus will remain through the morning, but did end up boosting cloud cover through early afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area.


Wednesday Night through Monday:

High pressure will be moving across the area Wednesday night with light winds expected. There does appear to be a chance for some high clouds overnight into Thursday morning but these may not affect low temps too much, which are expected to be in the lower 30s for most areas outside of Chicago. Areas of frost still look on track for now for most of the area.

The Friday through Sunday time period is looking quite active with periods of showers and thunderstorms. One area of low pressure is expected to move from the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday and then a second area of low pressure is expected to take a similar track Saturday night into Sunday night. Precipitable water values approach 1.5 inches Friday into Friday night and again on Sunday and these two time periods appear to be the most likely for precipitation as trends currently show. Ensemble QPF amounts by Sunday night are generally in the 2-3 inch range for the local area, with some isolated higher amounts. If these materialize, trends will need to be monitored for flooding concerns, especially over the weekend after the first expected wave of precipitation Friday.

The potential for severe storms will also need to be monitored but given the proximity to the surface low, its possible that more widespread or organized severe weather may remain west and northwest of the area Friday with perhaps a little better chance for a severe potential Sunday with the second area of low pressure and possible cold front moving across the area. Though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing/location differences among the models. If the front moves through the area Sunday evening/night, then Monday may end up quiet. A slower evolution/fropa, would introduce the potential for some thunderstorms Monday. cms

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast concerns include...

Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Strong/gusty southwest winds through this evening.
Wind shift to northeast late this evening.
Scattered showers overnight/Light rain mid/late morning.

Scattered showers will continue to move across the terminals over the next few hours. There may be a brief vis reduction in the heaviest showers, but otherwise vfr cigs/vis expected and these will end by 08z-09z. Another area of rain is expected to develop across west central IL after sunrise and spread east/ northeast through the mid/late morning, likely reaching MDW/GYY and perhaps as far north as DPA/ORD. Cigs/vis also expected to remain vfr with this rain. However, there will be mvfr cigs/vis just south of the terminals with this rain. If the entire rain area shifts further north than currently expected, than some mvfr cigs/vis may get as far north as GYY. This rain will shift east and end during the early afternoon. There will then be a chance of thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early evening. These are expected to develop just northwest of the Chicago area terminals and then move southeast across the terminals. Current prob mention has this potential handled for now and expect to transition to tempo mention with later forecasts if trends continue.

Southwest winds will gust into the mid 20kt range through mid morning. Winds are likely to diminish some where the rain develops later this morning but gusts will still be possible.
As winds turn more west/southwest this afternoon, gusts into the 30kt range will be possible. Winds will continue turning northwest this evening then are expected to shift northeast late this evening. High confidence for the wind shifts, but only medium confidence for timing, which may need refinement with later forecasts. cms

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 6 mi112 min S 8
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi52 min S 8.9G13 57°F 29.75
OKSI2 28 mi112 min W 4.1G9.9 59°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi112 min SSW 33G39 61°F 36°F
CNII2 32 mi22 min SSW 11G18 56°F 33°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi52 min S 16G21 57°F 29.8135°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL 10 sm61 minSSW 21G3710 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F37°F51%29.77
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 12 sm60 minSSW 1110 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F39°F54%29.82
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 22 sm61 minSSW 14G2310 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F37°F51%29.81
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI 23 sm59 minSSW 15G2210 smMostly Cloudy55°F39°F54%29.75
Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   

Chicago, IL,

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