Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bainbridge, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:06PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 6:49 PM EST (23:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:42AMMoonset 2:58PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bainbridge, NY
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location: 42.29, -75.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 222302 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 602 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the eastern seaboard will provide our region with fair weather and gradual warming through Friday. Strong low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley Friday night, and redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. This coastal storm will track up the New England coast through Sunday. There is a potential for accumulating snow with the weekend system although rain may mix in and cut down on snowfall totals, especially in the lower elevations on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 230 PM update .

High pressure in control through at least this period. This is a large area of high pressure all the East Coast extending inland to WV. Our area is on the edge of the high with clear skies to the south and cloudy high clouds to the north. The high will remain stationary into Thursday then slowly exit through southern New England Thursday night. Clouds will continue to be over mostly CNY as a deep southwest flow pumps moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. The clouds will start out at high levels then lower Thursday and Thursday night as the stacked low in the Plains moves east to near St. Louis Friday morning.

Gradual warming trend will continue with warm air advection and southwest flow. Lows tonight in the teens but coldest valleys like Boonville and Elmira near 10. Thursday highs several more degrees warmer with highs upper 30s to mid 40s. Thursday night with the thick mid clouds low temperatures warmer and from the upper teens to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. For Friday, we will be in the lull before the next storm system affects our region. High pressure will be centered northeast of NY and PA with a southerly flow of air beginning in earnest. At 850 mb a low-level jet will accelerate into western PA and western NY to the eastern Great Lakes by 00z Saturday in response to the nearly vertically stacked cyclone reaching Indiana and Ohio. Model QPFs for the 12z NAM, GFS, 12z Euro and 12z CMC and keep all of central NY and northeast PA dry Friday dry. So will have a dry day Friday.

Then for Friday night/Saturday morning, all 4 main models (Euro, CMC, GFS and NAM) show a strong low-level jet around 850 mb transporting moisture north into central NY and northeast PA in a band along a baroclinic zone. It is within this baroclinic zone that the next coastal storm will be born. Models show this developing low somewhere eastern VA, or near DC by 12z Saturday. This developing surface low is far removed from the Ohio valley barotropic upper level low over Ohio at this time. Then on Saturday the upper level low makes it ways east to northeast OH (Euro, CMC) and to southwest PA on the GFS. The GFS is way faster in moving this upper level low to the east across PA Saturday night and initiates surface cyclogenesis much quicker over southern New England Sunday. The CMC and Euro are much slower phasing the upper level low and the surface low and hence cyclogenesis doesn't occurs until the low-level cyclone reaches Maine. This scenario has a more northerly and westerly track of the upper-level cyclone which does not bode well for a major snowstorm in central NY or northeast PA. The GFS has a better scenario for more snow or more QPF in our forecast area but the next issue is warmer boundary temperatures this run all models. This means there will be more rain and mixed rain and snow for longer times during the storm, especially later Saturday into Saturday evening. Thus, with potentially less QPF and potential for more rain, this system may not produce much snow in our valleys and maybe advisory to borderline warning criteria in our higher terrain areas at best.

So bottom line it is looking like less of a threat for a major snowstorm or more likely an elevation dependent storms with little snows in the valleys and moderate amounts in our higher terrain. Our highest terrain (above 2200 feet) could see 6-10" but that is such a limited area with less impacts. However, it is still 3-4 days out and things could still change a lot so much uncertainty abounds. Three questions are not clearly answered: 1) will we get enough QPF? 2) how much rain falls vs snow? 3) will road temperatures in most areas be low enough for major impacts?

Our best estimate right now given all the uncertainties is for 1-3" in the valleys of central NY, T to 2" in the valleys of northeast PA with the hills seeing 2" to 5". The highest mountains over 2200 feet elevation in central NY and northeast PA sees maybe 6-8" or more. But, a lot could change between now and the storm so stay tuned. This could be a heavy wet snow but amounts likely will only be high enough over the highest terrain where there is less power infrastructure.

We will continue to mention in our Hazardous Weather Outlook and highlight our graphical hazardous weather outlook. We will also send some sort of briefing email out to our core partners since we are getting a lot of questions on Saturday's storm.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Wrap around lighter snow and snow showers will affect the region on Sunday in the wrap around.

For Monday, expect wrap around lake effect snow showers and flurries behind departing storm to gradually wind down. Used NBM to populate these time periods as well.

previous discussion . Sunday night through Monday, lingering snow showers taper off to mainly lake effect snow showers with NW flow and 850 mb temperatures around -10 C. Ridging across the eastern US will bring a return to dry weather Monday night through Tuesday - though a weak shortwave grazing the NY and Canada border could touch off some snow showers across northern NY Tuesday. Temperatures the rest of the extended period stay a little above normal, with morning lows in the 20s and highs in the mid/upper 30s.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

VFR throughout the TAF period with winds variable and under 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook . Thursday night through Friday night . VFR. South winds under 10 kt Thursday become more SE by Friday.

Saturday through Sunday . IFR conditions with rain and snow likely.

Monday . Occasional restrictions especially CNY in snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . TAC NEAR TERM . TAC SHORT TERM . DJN LONG TERM . DJN/HLC AVIATION . MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 85 mi79 min Calm 29°F 1030 hPa18°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 98 mi49 min 31°F 1027 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY27 mi56 minS 510.00 miFair29°F14°F54%1029 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W7W6NW5W4SW5W6W5W7SW7W6SW8SW7SW6SW5SW5SW5SW6SW65SW6SW6CalmS5
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM EST     4.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:44 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.432.31.50.80.1-0.20.21.22.33.344.34.13.42.51.50.6-0.1-0.30.31.22.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:30 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:35 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:53 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:14 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.51.81.10.4-0.1-0.10.61.72.73.5443.62.81.910.2-0.3-0.10.71.62.43

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.