Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spencer, NY
 | Sunrise 7:08 AM Sunset 5:31 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM Moonset 11:01 AM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
LOZ044 Expires:202602102200;;405256 Fzus51 Kbuf 101503 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am est Tue feb 10 2026
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-102200- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1003 am est Tue feb 10 2026
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Snow showers late this morning, then a chance of snow showers, rain showers and freezing rain early this afternoon. Rain and snow likely late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday - West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 10 feet building to 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 34 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am est Tue feb 10 2026
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-102200- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1003 am est Tue feb 10 2026
the water temperature off rochester is 34 degrees.
LOZ005
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KBGM 102358 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 658 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Winter weather advisories expanded into the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region for light freezing rain or drizzle this evening.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Clipper system brings mixed precipitation this evening with light snow and ice accumulations.
2) Lake Effect snow showers develop tonight and continue through Thursday. Uncertainity continues on track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday into Monday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Warm air advection ahead of a cold front this afternoon allows temperatures to climb near freezing. As a result light snow showers are expected to transition to mixed precipitation with potential for a short window of freezing rain or drizzle. Advisories over central NY and Susquehanna and N. Wayne county remain in effect for most of our eastern portion of the region through early evening. Advisories were expanded in northeast PA to include Pike, S. Wayne, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming. Higher elevations may hold on to the freezing rain potential the longest especially as temporary cold air damming is possible. Overall there is potential for light snow accumulations ahead of the precip transition with a few tenths of an inch expected. Oneida county will see slightly higher accumulations up to an inch as temperatures remain below freezing. Ice accumulations looks to be light, ranging from a glaze to a few hundreths of an inch. Mainly expecting patchy freezing rain and drizzle as soundings look to dry out this evening while things try to get going.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Northwest flow behind the clipper system will generate some lake effect snow showers late tonight into Thursday over central NY. This will bring additional accumulations downstream of Lake Ontario, shifting to portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier if Finger Lake Effect snow showers occur. Overall, a few inches for quite a few locations with amounts over 4 inches total in the advisory area.
Some of the amounts may creep into Cayuga and Cortland counties but a sharper cutoff of the higher totals are expected. Held off on expanding the advisory to include S. Cayuga, due to some uncertainty, but there is potential to issue there as well in the near future. Model solutions continue to differ on the low pressure system moving through Sunday into Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both now agree that this disturbance misses our area, but both have very different tracks. The Canadian keeps the low to our south, but shows precipitation extending into our region. Uncertainty still remains, therefore kept NBM that keeps a chance of showers in the forecast.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The 00Z TAF cycle begins with deteriorating conditions across the region. Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) is a primary concern early in the period for the Southern Tier and NE PA terminals (KELM, KITH, KBGM, KAVP) as a low level jet moves overhead, with WS020 up to 35 to 40 kts forecast through approximately 06Z.
Precipitation will overspread the area tonight. A wintry mix is expected at KAVP, where a TEMPO group for freezing rain and sleet (-FZRAPL) has been included between 04Z and 08Z. Further north, KSYR and KRME will see periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions in light snow (-SN) and mixed rain/snow showers (-SHRASN).
A cold front will cross the region Wednesday morning, shifting winds to the West/Northwest (270-290 deg) and increasing gusts to 20 to 25 kts by afternoon. This flow will activate lake effect snow showers. Expect conditions to lower to IFR at KSYR, KRME, and KBGM after 14Z to 18Z due to -SHSN and blowing snow/mist. Downsloping should keep KELM and KAVP generally VFR to high end.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Thursday... Some additional IFR/MVFR restrictions possible from snow showers in CNY.
Friday and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR conditions expected at this time.
Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system to move into the area.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ039- 040.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ043- 044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-018- 036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ044>046-056-057-062.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 658 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Winter weather advisories expanded into the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region for light freezing rain or drizzle this evening.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Clipper system brings mixed precipitation this evening with light snow and ice accumulations.
2) Lake Effect snow showers develop tonight and continue through Thursday. Uncertainity continues on track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday into Monday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Warm air advection ahead of a cold front this afternoon allows temperatures to climb near freezing. As a result light snow showers are expected to transition to mixed precipitation with potential for a short window of freezing rain or drizzle. Advisories over central NY and Susquehanna and N. Wayne county remain in effect for most of our eastern portion of the region through early evening. Advisories were expanded in northeast PA to include Pike, S. Wayne, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming. Higher elevations may hold on to the freezing rain potential the longest especially as temporary cold air damming is possible. Overall there is potential for light snow accumulations ahead of the precip transition with a few tenths of an inch expected. Oneida county will see slightly higher accumulations up to an inch as temperatures remain below freezing. Ice accumulations looks to be light, ranging from a glaze to a few hundreths of an inch. Mainly expecting patchy freezing rain and drizzle as soundings look to dry out this evening while things try to get going.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Northwest flow behind the clipper system will generate some lake effect snow showers late tonight into Thursday over central NY. This will bring additional accumulations downstream of Lake Ontario, shifting to portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier if Finger Lake Effect snow showers occur. Overall, a few inches for quite a few locations with amounts over 4 inches total in the advisory area.
Some of the amounts may creep into Cayuga and Cortland counties but a sharper cutoff of the higher totals are expected. Held off on expanding the advisory to include S. Cayuga, due to some uncertainty, but there is potential to issue there as well in the near future. Model solutions continue to differ on the low pressure system moving through Sunday into Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both now agree that this disturbance misses our area, but both have very different tracks. The Canadian keeps the low to our south, but shows precipitation extending into our region. Uncertainty still remains, therefore kept NBM that keeps a chance of showers in the forecast.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The 00Z TAF cycle begins with deteriorating conditions across the region. Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) is a primary concern early in the period for the Southern Tier and NE PA terminals (KELM, KITH, KBGM, KAVP) as a low level jet moves overhead, with WS020 up to 35 to 40 kts forecast through approximately 06Z.
Precipitation will overspread the area tonight. A wintry mix is expected at KAVP, where a TEMPO group for freezing rain and sleet (-FZRAPL) has been included between 04Z and 08Z. Further north, KSYR and KRME will see periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions in light snow (-SN) and mixed rain/snow showers (-SHRASN).
A cold front will cross the region Wednesday morning, shifting winds to the West/Northwest (270-290 deg) and increasing gusts to 20 to 25 kts by afternoon. This flow will activate lake effect snow showers. Expect conditions to lower to IFR at KSYR, KRME, and KBGM after 14Z to 18Z due to -SHSN and blowing snow/mist. Downsloping should keep KELM and KAVP generally VFR to high end.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Thursday... Some additional IFR/MVFR restrictions possible from snow showers in CNY.
Friday and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR conditions expected at this time.
Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system to move into the area.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ039- 040.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ043- 044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-018- 036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ044>046-056-057-062.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 81 mi | 56 min | WNW 13G | 33°F | 28°F | |||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 89 mi | 26 min | W 6G | 36°F | 29.49 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 90 mi | 56 min | 35°F |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KITH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITH
Wind History Graph: ITH
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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Binghamton, NY,
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