Ypsilanti, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ypsilanti, MI

June 13, 2024 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM
Moonrise 11:57 AM   Moonset 12:38 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 748 Pm Edt Sat Jun 8 2024

.a gust front approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 747 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a gust front, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. This gust front was located along a line extending from 13 nm southeast of grosse pointe to 22 nm northwest of Monroe harbor, moving south at 25 knots.
locations impacted include - . Estral beach, bolles harbor of refuge, woodland beach, stony point, Monroe harbor, luna pier, lake erie metropark harbor, detroit river light, detroit beach, and north cape.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots and locally higher waves. Boaters should seek safe harbor.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4207 8325 4207 8314 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ypsilanti, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131935 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and noticeably higher humidity.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with potential for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main threat between 3pm and 10pm. Southeast MI is outlined in a Marginal to Slight Risk from SPC.

- Higher than usual confidence in hot and humid conditions much of next week. Temperatures well into the 90s Monday and beyond with relatively high humidity will likely bring the highest heat indices we have seen so far this year.

DISCUSSION

+

CAMs finally begin to converge on the severe weather potential for today. Line of storms looks to move southeast across the CWA between 4pm and 10pm tonight. The bulk of the storms will be to the southwest in Indiana and Illinois, but there is still potential for severe weather in southeast Michigan. Most of the CWA is under a Slight Risk for severe weather, with wind and hail being the primary threats. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. SBCAPE will hit 1500 J/kg or better due to overachieving daytime temperatures, with lapse rates pushing 7 C/km help updrafts to develop.Shear of 30- 40 knots has the potential to sustain anything that does develop, but stronger 50 knots shear does not push in until overnight behind the line of storms. Convergence along the front still does not look strong, and any storms that do develop will quickly outrun the available instability. While the ingredients are in place, there is still much uncertainty with how the system will evolve over Michigan. Potential exists for a storm to pop up over the entire CWA, but the best chances for severe weather are in the southern part of the CWA near Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe, and Lenawee counties.
Moisture availability is greater to the southwest, but peak PWATs of 2 inches are expected over the CWA Storm total QPFs sit at around 0.2 inches, but any localized showers could easily exceed that value.

Trough pushes east on Friday, allowing high pressure to take control and keep skies clear through Friday and Saturday. More seasonable highs reach 80 on both Friday and Saturday, with little chances for rain. Sunday night exhibits the next chances for rain due to an overnight warm frontal passage and an associated shortwave trough.

Significantly warmer weather remains in the forecast as an upper level ridge builds overhead on Sunday. 500mb heights have the potential to reach upwards of 590dam. This allows for warm, moist air to fill in and bring dew points in the 70s to the CWA Daytime highs Monday-Wednesday reach 90 degrees or better, with ensemble means disagreeing on the full extent of heating. Both shortwave troughs embedded within the ridge and upper level trough to the west have the potential to bring showers to the area, which would temper the heat down a few degrees should the timing line up. The NWS Heat Risk identifies a Major to Extreme Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday due to apparent temperatures pushing 100 degrees during the day, high dew points creating muggy conditions, and lack of overnight relief as temperatures stay above 70. Forecasted temperatures are currently set to hit 95 degrees four days in a row, which has not been achieved since July 1-4, 2002. If full insolation is achieved on any of these days, temperatures could push record highs, but right now that looks unlikely. Extended guidance holds the ridge through the rest of the week, sustaining above average temperatures.

MARINE

A warm air mass continues to reside over the cooler waters, producing stable over-lake conditions. This will continue to minimize the stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface, relative to the over-land nearshore zones. That said, isolated wind gusts around 25 knots will still be possible immediately along the land-lake interface with the southwest flow in place, especially into inner Saginaw Bay with the ideal fetch. These stronger wind gusts will diminish after sunset.

Otherwise, redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible this evening, focused mainly across central Lake Huron and locations south. Northern Lake Huron will still be susceptible to storms, some strong, through the late afternoon. Wind gusts to or in excess of 34 knots and small hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorm development. The passage of a cold front late tonight into tomorrow morning will veer wind direction from southwest to northwest as high pressure builds in behind the front. This will bring lighter winds to the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning, lasting into the end of the week.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

AVIATION...

Difficult convection forecast for late this afternoon into early evening hours. The 12z DTX sounding indicated a lot of dry air below 800 mb, and thus will be counting on the steepening mid level lapse rates/increasing cape to potentially trigger strong to severe thunderstorms late today. At this point, will continue with the inherited tempo group for TSRA at each taf site. Coverage and location is still uncertain, and bulk of storms could end up closer to the Michigan/Indiana border.

Cold front/wind shift will track through southeast Michigan tonight, and low level convergence may be sufficient for a period of borderline MVFR/VFR clouds. Unfortunately, the amount of showers and thunderstorms that occur late this afternoon/this evening will be a factor in determing this scenario. It appears the southern TAFS stand the best chance and longest duration of low clouds, but should clear around sunrise Friday regardless.

Light northerly flow tomorrow, with some sct-bkn mid cloud (5-10 kft) development expected with the cooler mid levels (zero at 700 mb) tracking through the Central Great Lakes.

For DTW/D21 Convection... A scattered-broken line of thunderstorms looks to be developing/tracking through southeast Michigan late this afternoon/early this evening. The primary window to affect DTW is expected to arrive by 23Z and move east by around 02Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms impacting the terminal by around 23z today.

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft this evening through tomorrow morning.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 37 mi34 minWSW 14G26 89°F 29.81
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi34 minSW 13G15 79°F 29.8364°F
45200 41 mi54 min12G19 81°F 70°F0 ft29.8465°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 42 mi46 minWSW 13G26 89°F 29.8057°F
45165 44 mi34 minSW 12G19 83°F 70°F1 ft
TWCO1 44 mi35 min22G27 86°F 70°F63°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KYIP WILLOW RUN,MI 4 sm40 minSW 19G294 smA Few Clouds Haze 91°F55°F30%29.83
KARB ANN ARBOR MUNI,MI 12 sm40 minWSW 16G2910 smClear88°F57°F36%29.83
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI 12 sm40 minSW 22G2910 smPartly Cloudy90°F57°F34%29.82
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 24 sm18 minWSW 09G2110 smPartly Cloudy90°F36°F15%29.81
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Wind History graph: YIP
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Detroit, MI,




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