Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ypsilanti, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:18 PM EST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:23PMMoonset 1:26AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ypsilanti, MI
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location: 42.3, -83.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 220235 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 935 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

UPDATE.

The cold front moving southward through northern Lower Michigan during late evening confirms arctic origin as it leaves behind single digit temperatures across MN/WI. It is a shallow boundary but with a sharp gradient as surface readings remain above freezing most locations to the south. Model cross sections indicate the shallowness of the front in terms of theta-e while soundings depict a better scenario in the context of lake effect/enhancement. A more than adequate convective depth around 7 kft is shown in the soundings along with a gusty wind profile and plentiful moisture no doubt supplied by flux from Lake Michigan and possibly even preconditioned by Superior. It's no surprise then to see the high radar reflectivity in the pattern over northern Lower where some terrain enhancement also provides a boost. Forecast expectations are for snow showers to remain intense as ongoing activity reaches Midland/Bay counties but also with some weakening farther south. Downslope movement into the Saginaw Valley can be a limiting factor, especially given the shallow nature of the frontal circulation, which may ultimately result in a generous scattered coverage as the front moves farther into SE Michigan. Given the steep lapse rate within the frontal zone, a few bursts of heavier snow showers are fully expected even toward the I-69 corridor and Detroit area late in the night along with surges to entry level numerous coverage at times. A quick coating to a half inch for any single location is the most likely accumulation outcome. This is just enough to raise concern about road conditions heading into the morning peak travel period when projected with plunging temperatures across the region from midnight through mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 703 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

AVIATION .

An arctic front moving into northern Lower Michigan during the evening is part of a larger low pressure system in Quebec. This system maintains gusty west wind ahead of the front although dropping down a notch with the loss of daytime warming and boundary layer turbulence. The impact of greater significance is scattered snow showers capable of IFR restriction arriving with the front, first at mbS around midnight and then spreading southward toward DTW. A more uniform NW flow develops after the frontal passage toward sunrise which favors lower coverage of snow showers along the terminal corridor through Friday morning. However the wind speed and direction maintains the supply of cold air across Lower Michigan Friday afternoon. Flight conditions trend to VFR but with broken stratocu and flurries into Friday evening.

For DTW . The arctic front remains on time for a passage during the 08z to 11z time window tonight. Gusty west wind then shifts NW and continues through Friday. The best chance for restriction due to snow showers occurs along and a for a few hours behind the front leading up to sunrise. Scattered coverage presents a low confidence scenario for accumulation with the best estimate of a quick dusting most likely by mid Friday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this evening, high after midnight through Friday.

* High for precip type as snow tonight and Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 304 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

DISCUSSION .

An arctic cold front will move south through the area tonight as low pressure tracks from eastern Ontario into Quebec. Gusty southwest flow this afternoon will veer to the northwest with the passage of this front with wind gusts still reaching 20 to 25 mph overnight into Friday.

Widely scattered to scattered snow showers can also be expected along and behind this front with activity generally working into northern portions of the forecast area from mid to late evening and then shift southward overnight before tapering to flurries and ending Friday morning. While most locations will only see a dusting at most, local spots may approach half an inch of snowfall by early Friday morning.

Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 20s late tonight in the wake of the front remain nearly steady Friday as cold air advection ensues throughout the day. Modified arctic high pressure will build east into the region Friday night into Saturday with lows falling into the lower teens (probably single digits in some locations) with highs Saturday again stuck in the 20s.

An approaching weak Pacific shortwave will shift east into the area Sunday around the base of a stronger system positioned over central Canada. This will bring a return of light snow chances by late in the weekend as a milder air mass overruns the dome of cold air in place over the central Great Lakes by that time. While this system does not look to be especially significant, light snow accumulations will be possible as it encroaches on the region Sunday.

The biggest forecast challenge will be a more significant shortwave that will dig into the southwest CONUS late this week/weekend and then eject into the region early next week. Medium range models are again in disagreement in how this system interacts with the aforementioned central Canadian shortwave/upper low as it shears gradually east from Lake Winnipeg to north of Lake Superior. The main question will be how far south the southern shortwave is steered around this evolving northern stream.

If there is a current "trend" in model solutions for the 12z cycle, it would be weighted toward a more southern solution that bypasses (or brushes) the area in terms of snowfall from the shortwave eventually tracking into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. Confidence, however, remains low at this point. The trouble with this will be the sharp gradient that appears will set up on the northern edge of the snow shield this system will produce as relatively minor differences in the track with equate to large swings in potential snowfall accumulations.

Thereafter, a cold and more or less dry mid week period is expected to end this forecast cycle with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens as colder Canadian air spill south in the wake of the Monday system in whatever configuration it evolves.

MARINE .

An arctic front will be sliding through the Central Great Lakes tonight, leading to a wind shift to the northwest by Friday morning. Solid wind gusts up around 30 knots expected through the day across Lake Huron, as much colder air filters in, leading to snow squalls. These enhanced low level convergence areas over Lake Huron will also likely produce brief gusts to gales throughout the day as well, but duration and coverage does not warrant a Gale Warning. Despite the northwest duration, the unstable low level profiles will be conducive for good wave growth over the southern Lake Huron basin, and waves of 4 feet or greater will likely clip the northern and eastern Thumb nearshore waters through at least Friday night. Small craft advisories have been extended in time.

Northwest flow will persist on Saturday, but winds will slowly decrease as the airmass begins to modify, with light and variable winds setting up Saturday night as a ridge axis slides through.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley on Monday, and will lead to increasing easterly/onshore flow, and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening, as there is a good chance of snow overspreading Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly far southern lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for LHZ422-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



UPDATE . BT AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 37 mi79 min W 12 G 19 37°F 1003.7 hPa (+1.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 42 mi79 min W 12 G 19 37°F 1004.3 hPa (+1.8)21°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI5 mi26 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F23°F55%1004.6 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI12 mi26 minW 710.00 miOvercast35°F24°F64%1004.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi26 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F22°F59%1004.9 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi24 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F23°F62%1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW8W7N10NW8NW11W11NW10NW7W5W7SW6W8W8SW12SW9W14SW12SW13SW14SW18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.