Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ypsilanti, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:15PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:05 PM EDT (20:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 551 pm edt Sat jun 27 2020 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 548 pm edt, doppler radar indicated scattered showers and Thunderstorms along a line extending from near grosse pointe to 41 nm northwest of luna pier, moving southeast at 20 knots. The strongest storms will be capable of heavy downpours and wind gusts near 30 knots. Locations impacted during late afternoon include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4232 8312 4234 8298 4232 8306 4224 8313 4210 8313 4205 8315 4199 8313 4190 8325 4189 8331 4182 8337 4172 8341
LCZ423 Expires:202006272245;;954870 FZUS73 KDTX 272151 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 551 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-272245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ypsilanti, MI
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location: 42.3, -83.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 051927 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

DISCUSSION.

Persistent mid-summer weather will hold serve through the upcoming week. The westerlies remain pinned north of the border - keeping opportunities for organized synoptic-scale forcing hard to find. The shortwave trough emerging from the Canadian Rockies will pivot and sling eastward along the northern reaches of the CONUS Monday and into the northern Lakes region on Tuesday. This gentle height falls region will also be coincident with some slight mid-level cooling - allowing for a better chance at some tangible weather locally. A stout extension of the large scale ridge will then occupy space over the region Wednesday into Friday - bringing the hottest conditions via combination of temperature and ambient moisture.

Thus far, near surface moisture has stayed well in check - so despite daily climbs into the 90s-F, overnight retreats have been substantial (most locals at or below 60-F this morning). Dewpoints are expected to slowly ascend beginning Monday afternoon, and more so Tuesday. Heat indices will reside in the mid-upper 90s-F Tuesday and continue at least through Thursday, if not Friday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will begin having trouble dipping below 70-F starting Tuesday morning. It's at that point that heat headlines may need be raised as cumulative heat stress effects will become far more pronounced.

A ribbon of better boundary layer moisture and meaningful instability (MLCAPE > 1-kJ/kg) is resident over the western Lower Peninsula. A couple regions of agitated cumulus have spawned some shower activity - currently either tied to the Lake Michigan shadow zone or the bouncy gradient along the I-94 corridor. Most of the guidance suite indicates this tongue of enhanced instability will drift east across south-central Lower late this afternoon - and continue to possess the ability to initiate isolated convection. The boundary layer rooted activity may be able to survive into the far western reaches of the forecast area this evening.

The zone of enhanced instability is expected to maintain integrity overhead tonight - which will offer the opportunity for some nocturnal shower/storm development. The forcing will be via radiational cooling of the mid-level moist layer in combination with gentle system-relative isentropic ascent at the top of the entrainment zone around 308-K to act on the residual elevated diurnal mixed layer. Several CAMs are percolating some after midnight activity south of I-69. Coverage will be very limited and each updraft will likely be short-lived.

This instability axis will remain locked in place across southeast Michigan on Monday. Expect isolated shower/storm development through the afternoon hours. The congestus cloud field will likely develop along the big lake boundaries and the glacial terrain rise.

A better chance for scattered thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as the aforementioned shortwave trough zips through the northern Lakes region. Plenty of resident instability with MLCAPE values exceeding 1.5 kJ/kg. A few energetic updrafts may be able to produce a good puff of wind upon collapsing.

The next reliable chance for organized rainfall will occur at the end of the week. The extended guidance suite continue to offer a variety of outcomes regarding timing and intensity of the incoming system and attendant cold front. The GFS continues to be the most progressive - but that is a known behavior characteristic. Will continue to hedge in the direction of the ECMWF and EPS timing - which does bring the wave through during the peak diurnal period on Friday - therefore will have to monitor for severe potential as the week wears on.

MARINE.

High pressure continues to remain firmly over the Great Lakes today bringing warm temperatures, light wind, and favorable wave conditions to finish the weekend and start the early week period. Some isolated storms may be possible Monday afternoon/evening firing off lake breezes but will be confined to nearshore waters and areas inland. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to hold into early Tuesday before a weak front approaches northern Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

AVIATION .

Light winds (4-7 knots) will fluctuate from 240-300 throughout the afternoon given weak dynamics as expansive high pressure maintains a generally dry and stable airmass. Recent model guidance suggests the possibility of an isolated nocturnal low-topped shower or two, primarily IVOF the southern TAF sites. However, confidence remains too low to include even a PROB30 mention at this time. Otherwise, persistence sky forecast holds VFR through the period with sparse diurnal cumulus coverage. Denser mid-cloud associated with the periphery of a low amplitude shortwave progressing downstream of the ridge axis and shallow moisture gradients from evening convection to the west will cross the FL090-120 layer overnight helping minimize (pre-)dawn shallow ground fog. A similar pattern ensues on Monday with weak winds and high-based diurnal clouds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . Mann MARINE . KDK AVIATION . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 37 mi65 min ESE 8 G 8.9 79°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi125 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 81°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 42 mi47 min E 8.9 G 11 84°F 1015.6 hPa60°F
45165 44 mi155 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 80°F 82°F1 ft60°F
TWCO1 44 mi35 min ENE 8 G 8.9 79°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 46 mi65 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 77°F1 ft1014.9 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI5 mi72 minN 710.00 miFair92°F57°F32%1014.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI12 mi72 minW 610.00 miFair88°F61°F40%1015.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi72 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F57°F33%1015 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi69 minS 710.00 miFair84°F64°F53%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E10E5SE5CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW44--N7NW4
1 day agoN6NW8NW8NW7NW5E4E5CalmE4NE3N3N3CalmN3CalmNE6NE6NE4E5NE4NE9E7NE7NW6
2 days agoW5N7NW9NW7NW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4NW4W4NW3N5N6N5NW8N10N5
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.