Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chatham, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible well south of Albany this afternoon.

2) Hot temperatures will lead to an increased risk for heat- related illnesses across southern parts of the area today.

3) Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by Saturday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As a cold front/dewpoint boundary will continue to push southward across our region today, the front moving through southern parts of the area during peak heating may result in an isolated shower/T-storm in mainly Dutchess/Litchfield Counties.
Coverage expected to be limited though, as moisture decreases through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cool front resulting in slightly cooler temperatures, but also noticeable lower humidity levels, will move across the region through today. 850 mb temperatures will not be as warm as Tue, at +18C to +20C. However, as dewpoints lower behind the front, deeper mixing will develop. It will be warmest in southern areas, with expected highs in the lower/mid 90s, with upper 80s to near 90F farther north. NBM temperatures were lowered a few degrees though due to the presence of smoke, which will likely inhibit some warming/mixing. Humidity levels will decrease this afternoon, although the hottest temperatures will occur this afternoon. So peak heat indices of 95-98F are expected in parts E. Ulster, Dutchess and S. Litchfield counties where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

While temperatures will still be above normal through Thu, humidity levels will be noticeably lower with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. Temperatures expected to cool to near normal levels Fri through early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Other than some widely scattered showers and non-severe T-storms north of the Capital District on Thu associated with a weakening front, it will be dry across much of the area. Dry conditions will persist into Fri as high pressure builds in.
Better likelihood for showers/T-storms looks to occur Sat into Sat night, as a low pressure system and potent short wave aloft move across the area. This will be first chance for widespread precip since last week. The system looks to exit to our east on Sun, although a few additional showers/T-storms will be possible as an upper trough lingers.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected today, although areas of haze/smoke from Canadian wildfires will could bring some reductions in vsby mainly during the afternoon, especially at KALB, KPSF and KPOU. Will mention mainly 6SM vsby with haze. There is a chance for MVFR vsby during this time should some slightly thicker surface based smoke extend to near the surface at the TAF sites. Winds today will become west- northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.