Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:50PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:08 PM CDT (04:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 845 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Variable winds and higher waves in and near Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest in the evening and northwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201908201015;;493088 FZUS53 KLOT 200145 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 845 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, IL
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location: 42.32, -88.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 192352
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
652 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Short term
315 pm cdt
through Tuesday...

there are a few spotty showers and possibly a couple storms
through 8 p.M. Or so, but the primary attention through Tuesday
is on the potential for organized, severe storms Tuesday morning,
especially along south of i-80.

The now nearly stationary surface front is draped from just north
of chicago through far northern lasalle county. Isolated cells
have developed along this in our cwa, with a more scattered
presentation southeast of the quad cities. This activity has
almost entirely been void of lightning, with clouds tops in the
forecast area on only one cell dropped below 0c thus far and only
slightly at that. With some dry air entrainment on updrafts and
limited surface convergence and confluence, feel that sustained
and deeper updrafts for electrification will be limited. With the
combined effects of the weak surface front, a weak mid-level
perturbation, and dew points around 70 yielding mixed layer cape
values slightly over 1,000 j kg this isolated activity is expected
to continue through 8 p.M. Or so with an east-southeast
evolution.

Tonight looks primarily quiet for the local area, thought the high
dew point air and the calming wind field will provide some concern
for fog, possibly dense. The sky should become clear for much of
the late evening into early overnight before a combination of low-
level jet induced clouds and cirrus are probable. Fog may develop
in that pre-cloud time, and if clouds are not as plentiful at
daybreak as model guidance is indicating, some dense fog could
develop and linger beyond daybreak. Confidence in this is overall
low given the cloud potential so have not messaged this too hard
and evening shift will have the chance to assess more.

Attention through the night will be on convective development and
evolution to the west. A strong upper level speed maximum and
associated short wave disturbance across the south dakota nebraska
border area this afternoon will migrate eastward, intersecting a
low-level jet nose into iowa overnight. Rapidly steepening mid-
level lapse rates will help to favor robust convective
development evolving into an mcs. There is some uncertainty at
what latitude this will form in iowa, and that will play into how
much of our area is threatened Tuesday morning. But mcs
maintenance parameters, such as organized lift, deep layer shear,
ample mucape, rich low-level and deep layer moisture, and cold
pool development are more than juxtaposed for sustenance into
illinois Tuesday morning. Convection allowing model (cam) guidance
is in high agreement on this form of evolution, with a fairly
good signal in forward propagation in line with environmental
steering fields.

The challenge is just how this evolves, with some guidance
indicating more southeasterly and others more easterly and
impacting more of the cwa. The parent short wave is favored to
develop more eastward in line with the upper level winds and
potential vorticity fields, and looks to not clear the CWA until
the afternoon hours. However given the forward propogating nature
anticipated, a quicker movement is presently expected, with the
mid-late morning hours most favored for some CWA impacts. The
southeast-leaning instability gradient and low-level jet
orientation with respect to the mid-level flow supports mcs
prorogation vectors of an east-southeast to southeast movement.

This would favor mainly the southern and possibly just the
southwestern CWA for the convective bowing segment apex and the
greater potential for damaging wind gusts. North of any bowing
segment apex with the convectively enhanced shortwave there is
likely to be scattered convection though, possibly embedded
within stratiform activity. This includes into or at least near
chicago. Given the instability and shear spectrum space, these
could be strong and cannot rule out severe too.

Overall confidence is somewhat low on just how much of the CWA is
impacted by any bowing segment, and beyond 10 am or so if the
convection will show a weakening trend, which can occur if
outrunning the primary forcing. Also further north the convective
presentation is expected to remain more scattered, and the degree
of strong to severe potential is somewhat uncertain, but isolated
hail and wind would be potential threats.

One item to note with the convective enhanced short wave track to
the north of the mcs, is that it could favor a wake low developing
and tracking over some part of the cwa, resulting in a brief
period of gusty sustained winds behind showers and storms during
the late morning early afternoon. That feature is plenty difficult
to predict even a couple hours in advance let alone 18-24, so
confidence in this is low but some signals are there.

Going into the mid-late afternoon Tuesday, the subsidence in the
wake of any morning activity should keep the lid on the mixed
layer pretty well even though there could be some return flow
aloft resuming. While temperatures will likely fall for a brief
period later morning they should bounce back to the mid 80s or so.

Mtf

Long term
330 pm cdt
Tuesday night through Monday...

similar to how the organized convection this past Sunday morning
largely precluded renewed convective development through Sunday
evening and night, think Tuesday's likely organized daytime
convection will make any renewed development with approaching cold
front less likely through Tuesday evening and night. Can't rule
out isolated to perhaps widely scattered convection, particularly
over or east of our northwest indiana counties. It will otherwise
be another warm and muggy overnight. The cold front will move
across the area on Wednesday, but this will be more of a wind
shift, with stronger cool and dry advection not coming until
Wednesday night into Thursday. Thus Wednesday will be the last
warm and humid day in this stretch, with highs in the lower-mid
80s away from lake michigan (upper 70s lakeside due to winds
turning onshore). Chances for showers and thunderstorms appear
better south of the CWA where there will be stronger convergence,
but low (slight to low chance) pops south of i-80 appear
reasonable given moderate instability in presence of lower 70s dew
points.

As a stronger trough axis from mid-upper low over eastern canada
and secondary cold front pivots south across the region Thursday,
still can't rule out isolated showers and storms well south of
i-80 where there will some lingering moisture and instability. For
the rest of the area, it will be a pleasant and cooler day with
highs in the 70s and dew points dropping back to the 50s. At
this time, Friday and through the weekend is looking rather
pleasant and dry with near to slightly below normal temperatures
for late august and low humidity as dewpoints remain in the 50s.

Some low shower and storm chances will spread back east across the
region towards the very end of this forecast (primarily Monday)
as sprawling high pressure exits off to our east.

Castro carlaw

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

isolated shra will continue to brush gyy and mdw over the next 2 to
3 hours, with possibly one to two -shra nearing the southern extent
of the ord dpa vicinity.

With fairly high low-level moisture in place, cooling tonight is
expected to promote br development primarily outside of the core of
the chicago heat island (rfd, dpa, gyy). Confidence on how low
visibility drops is low, but there will likely be MVFR with possibly
ifr visibility at times late tonight.

Strong to severe convection is expected to develop over far southeast
sd this evening, then track ese to central and possibly northern il
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Latest trends continue to
suggest the TAF sites will be on the northern fringe of the complex,
but progged strength of system and forecast soundings support vcts
inclusion in the tafs. Confidence in direct terminal TS impacts is
low, but have high confidence in TS impacting the airspace. Wind
variability will be possible during and behind the activity tracking
across the area, but strong to severe wind gusts are likely to be
south of the terminals. Large scale winds will shift to southerly
and then southwest, but concern is there for southeast or east-
southeast winds in the wake of the shra tsra complex, possibly over
10 kt.

Kluber castro

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 35 mi49 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 75°F
45187 37 mi49 min W 1.9 G 1.9 77°F 74°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi69 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.1)
45174 44 mi39 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 75°F1 ft1014 hPa
FSTI2 49 mi129 min ENE 6 75°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 54 mi49 min E 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI27 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F98%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4S4S5NW20
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3SE3SE4S7CalmCalmS9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.