Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:23PM Friday December 13, 2019 12:20 AM CST (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 1218 Am Cst Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt by morning. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft toward daybreak.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable in the evening and northwest after midnight. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then slight chance of drizzle and snow after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Chance of drizzle and slight chance of snow through the day. Chance of light freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201912130900;;273664 FZUS53 KLOT 130618 AAA NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1218 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-130900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, IL
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location: 42.32, -88.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 130457 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

SHORT TERM. 214 PM CST

Through Friday night .

Northern IL and northwest IN are solidly in the warm sector of a clipper system across the upper Midwest with widespread 40s this afternoon, though it may not feel quite that warm with the gusty south winds that are in the 30-35 mph range. With the warm front across southern WI, the precipitation shield will remain confined across WI and north of the local area other than a few sprinkles along the border. The surface low will weaken some while it shifts across Lake Michigan, therefore winds will slacken off this evening and overnight.

The clipper's associated low-level trough/cold front will move into the area late tonight and gradually weaken through Friday. Clouds should start to thicken in the mid levels, with some periods of lower level cloudiness. In spite of the cloud cover the forcing for precipitation looks limited as the next upper level wave again will track to our north. In the absence of any advection and with clouds, high temperatures look to peak upper 30s to lower 40s.

A split flow regime Friday night into Saturday will see several weak short waves in the region, though it appears that much of the lower Great Lakes will largely remain in between these two systems and in a region of more subtle forcing. On Friday night, any precipitation looks light and associated with either very weak isentropic upglide or pockets of ascent ahead of/within any of the mid-level impulses. Forecast soundings do depict a cloud layer supportive of ice nucleation above a lower cloud layer, with the depth between these two layers close enough where some seeder- feeder process could support rain/snow if any precipitation were even to fall, which again is in question. So while drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible it is again low confidence. Equally if not slightly more likely if any precipitation occurs is that it may be patchy very light snow/flurries. Lows on Friday night/Saturday morning have consistently looked like they would be right around freezing.

KMD

LONG TERM. 337 PM CST

Saturday through Thursday .

The primary concerns through the long term remain the potential light mixed precip event on Saturday and a potentially more impactful winter system somewhere in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region on Monday.

On Saturday, a series of multiple weaker shortwaves appear to phase as they track across the area. Models continue to have variability in the placement of any resulting precip. The latest run of the GFS is a bit more aggressive with precip across the southern half of the forecast area, whereas the NAM/NAMNEST tend to favor lighter precip/drizzle scenario. Area soundings suggest that there is a window for some light freezing drizzle at times during the late morning period mixed in with light snow/drizzle. Surface temps will be generally be in the low 30s across the area. If precip does occur, any accumulation should be light.

Our next system approaches the area by Monday. Models have been consistent in a developing low moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, but the exact track this low will take still remains uncertain. Model ensembles have been trending closer to our area and have adjusted precip chances up slightly across our southern counties to account for this. Due to the amount of uncertainty in whether we will even see snow, it is too early to discuss snowfall amounts. Currently the best chances for accumulating snow remain to our south, but we will continue to monitor this storm closely over the coming days.

Looking past the Monday system, relatively quiet conditions are expected across the area. Winds will be generally out of the northwest and temps will be chilly with highs in the 20s Tuesday and Wednesday and 30s on Thursday.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Weak cold front will sag slowly south into northern IL overnight into Friday, eventually stalling out and washing out. The should allow the winds at the terminals to weaken and eventually go light/variable to calm later Friday afternoon into Friday night. CIGS generally expected to remain VFR, though area of lower CIGS lurking to the north could make a run at RFD Friday morning. Confidence is low, so just including a TEMPO for MVFR CIGS for now, but if confidence grows in lower stratus making it into the area then later TAFS could need to introduce a period of even IFR CIGS during the morning. Northerly low level flow expected to develop later Friday night which could pull some of the lower CIGS in the colder air to the north southward into the terminals.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . nearshore waters until midnight Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi20 min SSW 8 G 14 40°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 54 mi30 min S 18 G 20 40°F 30°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI27 mi25 minS 710.00 miFair35°F28°F78%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE8SE9S5S8S10
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2 days agoW7W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.