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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Early this morning..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Today..Southwest gales to 35 knots veering west 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy until midday then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots veering west 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering north 5 to 10 knots late at night, then veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming around 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 291423 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 923 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

UPDATE
Issued at 923 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

LAPS and model forecast soundings show the DGZ is no longer saturated and radar trends show no discernible precip at this moment across the forecast area. With no measurable precip expected, POPs were lowered to under 10 percent. There is some potential for freezing drizzle but this has apparently not materialized so far and will be left out of the forecast since the depth of the low stratus where there is some lift is expected to remain less than a 1000 feet thick.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A few light snow showers are possible through late morning, mainly near and north of M46, due to isentropic upglide and a weak shortwave moving across the northern lower peninsula. latest trends in high resolution guidance keep showers light and sporadic given low-level dry air so have capped PoPs at 40 percent.

BUFKIT overviews show the DGZ becoming unsaturated mid morning wednesday leading to the end of light snow chances. Any accumulations would be a few tenths of an inch at most. Otherwise, expect dry conditions from midday Wednesday through the end of the short term as weak ridging followed by zonal flow set up across lower Michigan. Skies become partly cloudy for a time tonight before clouds increase Thursday afternoon as low level moisture increases thanks to a low moving into the Ohio Valley. Breezy conditions with gusts to around 30 mph at times are likely both Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest winds are expected today becoming northwesterly late Thursday as a cold front slides southeast across the CWA. As 850 mb temperatures warm from -3C today to +3C Thursday, expect high temperatures to warm from the mid 30s today to the mid 40s Thursday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

An active long term appears to be setting up with precipitation chances in every 12 hour forecast period from Thursday night through next Tuesday. Many of the forecast periods only have small chances for precipitation, with the main precipitation event occurring between late Thursday night and Saturday. There may be some precipitation type concerns over Southern Lower Michigan during this time frame.

The upper pattern essentially will feature a trough which is a pattern shift from zonal flow at the end of the short term. No major systems are forecast to move through the area at the surface through the period. As for temperatures, seasonable conditions are expected with highs around 40 on most days which is very close to normals for this time of year.

As for the day to day details...the focus of the long term is really on a frontal boundary that sags into the area tomorrow and hangs up near the MI/IN line on Friday. This boundary will be a focus for precipitation as a shortwave aloft swings to the northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley. The temperature profile is near freezing in the low levels and as such precipitation type becomes a forecast challenge. Without a warm layer aloft though, this is more of a rain vs snow question. WPC guidance does not indicate chances for a swath of heavy snow on the north edge of the precipitation field and neither does our forecast. What has come out of our forecast process is a fair amount of rain with some wet snow on the northern fringe near the 96 corridor. Possibly an inch of snow is what is expect via our forecast process. WPC indicates the chance for maybe 1-2 inches.
Some model data like the ECMWF both the operational run and many of the ensemble members are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in the I-94 corridor on Friday. The ECWMF is a touch colder allowing for the higher snow totals. At this point, we are siding with the slightly warmer solutions which does not put advisory levels snows into our forecast area. We will be monitoring trends from model run to model run over the next 24 hours. This time frame is certainly the item to watch in the 7 day forecast.

Beyond the Friday system, there are small chances for precipitation each period. Saturday has another shearing out shortwave and weak low traversing our area. As we head into Sunday and early next week, troughing aloft takes over with shortwaves moving through the area.
We have 20-40 pct chances for rain and snow almost all forecast periods with more in the way of rain Sunday and trending towards snow Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters in with the trough.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 715 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Clouds continue to stream off of Lake Michigan this morning, but that will change as we move through today. MKG and GRR will be most affected with clouds trying to hang on into the afternoon. In other areas and as we head into the late afternoon and evening, clearing skies are expected. So, a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning, trending VFR in all areas for later this afternoon and tonight. We do not expect any restrictions to visibilities the next 24 hours. Gusty winds this morning will gradually taper this evening and tonight. Gusts this morning between 20-30 knots will subside to a sustained wind of 8-13 knots tonight. Direction will be from the south and southwest.



MARINE
Issued at 331 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Have extended the current Small Craft Advisory through Thursday night. Southwest winds of 25-30 knots are expected today before a brief lull in winds tonight. However, by early Thursday morning southwest winds increase again to 20-25 knots. Waves remain at or above 4 ft through Thursday evening supporting an extension of the advisory. A few gusts to just below gales are possible as a 35-40 knot low level jet sets up around 2000 ft and mixing heights increase Thursday morning. As the pressure gradient decreases Friday into the weekend, winds and waves decrease below small craft advisory criteria.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.

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