DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight through Saturday...

A broad dome of high pressure will continue to reside over the Great Lakes through the upcoming week which should keep any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico trapped well south of our area across the Tennessee Valley and Deep South. Therefore, our stretch of dry and summer-like conditions will continue through the week with daily highs generally in the mid-80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. Though, slightly warmer conditions are possible on Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned high drifts westward across lower Michigan resulting in less cirrus clouds and temperatures flirting with the upper 80s to around 90.

Additionally, the unabated sun and warmer temperatures should also yield deeper diurnal mixing Monday and Tuesday creating lower afternoon dew points and humidity. While winds during this period will remain light, minimum RH values are forecast to dip into the 20 to 25 percent range (especially across our eastern CWA) which could lead to a heightened concern for grass and brush fire starts. Afternoon RH values are expected to increase on Wednesday as high- level cloud cover and modest low-level moisture increase due to a tropical system impacting the Mid- Atlantic.

Heading into next weekend, guidance continues to show a broad trough developing across the western CONUS and tracking into the central Plains. While this should aid in breaking down the ridge over the Great Lakes, moisture return ahead of the trough looks rather weak and may not be sufficient to produce any meaningful rainfall in northern IL or northwest IN. That said, have decided to maintain the slight chance POPs (around 20%)
offered by the NBM next weekend, but suspect many areas could remain dry and thus see worsening drought conditions heading into next week.

Yack

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

No aviation impacts expected through the current TAF period.

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be out of the southeast before a lake enhanced push back to the east in the afternoon.

DK

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.