Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

930 AM Update...

Steady showers continue this morning with minimal changes needed. Updated temperatures and dew points using current observations, otherwise previous forecast still applies.

545 AM Update...

Rain showers across the area are behaving as forecasted with scattered showers across much of the area. No updates were made as the forecast remain on track.

320 AM Update...

Rain showers continue across the region tonight. The heaviest band is currently across Oneida county, slowly moving to the N.
Light showers and drizzle remain in behind the band across much of the CWA, and this is expected to remain through the morning hours.

The main driver of our weather today will be a stacked low pressure system centered over eastern Lake Erie. This low will push lobes of vorticity through the region today, bringing rain showers across the CWA for much of the day. CAMs are showing a large area of steady rain developing early in the afternoon across central PA, moving to the NNE as the day progresses. This coincides with the upper level portion of the low decoupling from the mid and low levels and sliding eastward as the afternoon progresses. Once the upper low is east of our area later this evening, rain shower coverage across the CWA lowers as we see reduced upper air support, but mid and low level lift will be sufficient to keep scattered rain showers going Thursday night.

Another upper level shortwave will dig into the area Friday from the NW. While not as strong as the previous low, it will help enhance the lift from the mid level and surface low. Its current forecasted position brings more steady rain and drizzle north of the Southern Tier Friday, with scattered showers across The Twin Tiers into the Catskills and Poconos. A deepening low off the New England coast will grab energy from the mid and surface low over our region, finally pulling them out of the area by Friday afternoon.

All told, we should see an additional 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain on top of what already fell yesterday, with the higher amounts expected across areas along and east of I-81 as we should see some upslope enhancement in these areas. Flooding concerns remain low as rainfall rates and amounts are far below flash flood guidance.

Temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees below normal today and tomorrow as clouds, rain and NW flow pushing in cold Canadian air will make it feel more like March than the end of May. Highs are expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the region.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
320 AM Update

Unsettled, cooler than average weather continue for most of this period. There will likely be some more dry time and breaks of sun by the time we get to Sunday.

Our area will be under the influence of a well developed mid to upper level low Friday night. There remains uncertainty in just how widespread and far south the rain shield will be Friday evening; some of the higher resolution guidance such as the 00z NAM, 03Z RAP and the tail end of the 00z HRRR guidance suggest steady rain over most of the area Friday evening...meanwhile the global guidance such as the 00z GFS/EC/CMC show this area of rain being further north of the Twin Tiers and/or more scattered in nature. For now, took a blend of these two model clusters for the official forecast, and will have to wait for newer guidance to come in and better resolve just how much rain will be over the area Friday evening into Friday night.

The overall trend is cooler and wetter for Saturday unfortunately.
It appears CNY/NE PA will be under a cool, moist cyclonic NNW flow through the day. This will keep scattered to numerous showers in the forecast, with highs only in the 50s for most locations. Rainfall amounts should be light, a tenth of an inch or less in most areas.
Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph will make it feel even cooler at times.
A few lingering showers are possible Saturday night, under mainly cloudy skies and cool overnight lows in the low to mid-40s. Another shortwave disturbance is poised to move through on Sunday as the area remains in a cyclonic NW flow pattern. It appears Sunday will feature more partly sunny conditions, with still a few scattered pop up showers around. It is forecast to be about 5 degrees warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s expected. It looks to finally dry out Sunday night, but with light winds there could be some patchy fog formation. Another cool night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
320 AM Update

This period starts off with a mainly dry forecast for Memorial Day; although a stray, isolated shower can't be completely ruled out over the Catskills. Otherwise, it will be mostly sunny and seasonable with highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s areawide. There is growing uncertainty in the forecast for Tuesday, as some of the latest deterministic guidance (00z ECMWF) keeps it dry, while the NBM of ensemble data does bring in more rain chances as a low passes by to our south. With the uncertainty, used mainly the NBM ensemble data, with a slight nudge to the latest 00z deterministic model data for the official forecast. Forecast highs are cooler, with the potential for more clouds and showers around; only in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Good agreement in the guidance that yet another upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes for the middle of next week, bringing another round of showers to the area and continued cool temperatures. Next Thursday features more showers, a slight chance for t'storms and near average temperatures as the slow moving upper level trough remains nearby or overhead.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain showers continue to keep ceilings at MVFR and Fuel alt across much of the region through the afternoon hours. BGM is expected to remain IFR through the TAF period with upslope flow helping keep clouds low at the terminal. ELM has dipped to IFR this morning, but should lift a round 9am or 10am to Fuel Alt.

All terminals are expected to fall to IFR ceilings tonight as rain showers let up, winds calm down and temps cool. BGM and ELM could also see visby drop to IFR as well, especially if winds become calm.

Outlook...

Friday into Saturday...Wet pattern persists with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

Sunday into Monday...Isolated showers with a low chance of restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.