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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 130159 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 959 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rain showers will clear out tonight. A brief dry and warm period is expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Then rain will return by Wednesday afternoon as another stretch of wet and cool weather is forecast late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

955 PM update .

A raw and chilly overnight will continue as showers stream across portions of NY and PA, especially along and east of I-81. Temperatures were running quite a bit cooler than forecast, so we lowered temperatures for the next several hours.

Expect minimums in the upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off between 2 AM and 7 AM with partial clearing early Tuesday afternoon.

The new forecast is published.

330 pm update .

Bands of rain showers continue overnight as an upper level low moves south of our CWA and then out to sea by tomorrow morning. Dry air from the east and a ridge from the west move into the area Tuesday morning, which will bring drier conditions to the area. This will lead to the skies clearing out, with areas east of I-81 seeing the most clearing. This will allow for daytime high temps to reach the upper 50s and low 60s. Some model guidance does have a weak wave move in from the west Tuesday afternoon that could bring some light rain showers mainly to Steuben, Yates, and Schuyler Counties.

A slight chance remains for any lingering rain showers tomorrow night for areas west of I-81. Otherwise, the area will dry out again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Nighttime low temps will fall into the 40s across the area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 230 pm update .

Just minor changes. Unsettled weather continues with rain centered on Thursday and Thursday night.

Wednesday starts out dry with weak ridging at all levels moving out as a large cut-off low drops southeast from Wisconsin through our area to NYC Thursday night. It strengthens and slows as it reaches the east coast. Chances of rain go from a few showers Wednesday afternoon to steady continuous showers Thursday morning. This just ahead of the low which is bringing moisture north from the Gulf and Atlantic. A 40 kt southerly jet is at 500 mb. This is expected to another soaking rain with possibly more than an inch of rain for at least NEPA. Rain tapers off Thursday night with the rain moving out to the east.

Temperatures start out warm with highs in the 60s Wednesday but cool to the low and mid 40s Wednesday night. With the rain highs Thursday from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Late Thursday night temperatures fall into the 30s with possibly some snow mixing in. 850mb temperatures fall below zero Celsius. If the low slows more some snow accumulation is possible across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 2 pm update .

Made only minor changes to the long term. Temperatures continued to trend a tad colder on Friday and Friday night. Scenario for Sunday to Monday still uncertain with multiple model outcomes. Another cut-off low will move east through the region. At this time it looks to be weak and relatively fast.

430 AM Update . We'll likely still be dealing with the slow moving coastal system much of the day on Friday, especially central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Again, it is starting to look cold enough both aloft and at the surface for wet snow to mix in through at least the morning hours Friday, especially the higher elevations. A great deal of uncertainty remains on exact precipitation amounts and any possible snow amounts. Model guidance now shows this system slowly exiting off to the east Friday evening, with conditions drying out Friday night. A cold pocket of air aloft remains overhead, so expect chilly overnight lows down into the 30s. Then, brief upper level ridging moves of the region for Saturday, bringing partly sunny, dry and mild weather with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another upper level trough begins to approach for Sunday and next Monday. Details remain uncertain on the exact timing and organization of this system; therefore went very close to the blended (NBM) guidance for this portion of the extended. This gave a slight chance to low chance for rain showers with seasonably cool temperatures. Will need to wait for guidance to better resolve this system for clearer details on this portion of the forecast. However, overall the weather pattern looks unsettled and cool.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Rain showers and low ceilings continue to cause restrictions across the region this evening. Dry air has already started to lead to VFR conditions at SYR and soon RME with a few more hours where some passing showers could cause MVFR conditions but VFR is expected beyond 3Z or so.

ELM is expected to have Fuel Alternate conditions with periods of IFR with passing showers. Clouds begin to clear late, with any clearing not expected to occur till after sunrise tomorrow. There is low confidence of clearing early but if it is able to, the recent rain could lead to quick fog development.

BGM is expected to continue IFR or worse into tomorrow morning as shallow low level moisture continues to keep low ceilings on top of the hill. Clearing occurs late at ITH as well with a chance of clearing. Some fog looks to develop in the area of the airport but low confidence in causing restrictions. AVP will take the longest to clear and with the winds slowly becoming Northeasterly aloft could lead to IFR conditions for a few hours between 4z and 8z before improvement.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night through Wednesday . Mostly VFR with a few showers and associated restrictions possible

Wednesday Night through Friday . Rain showers as well as winter mix and associated restrictions expected

Friday Night through Saturday . Mostly VFR

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BTL NEAR TERM . BTL/DJP SHORT TERM . TAC LONG TERM . MJM/TAC AVIATION . AJG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	89 mi	63 min	ENE 2.9 G 5.1	47°F			1014.6 hPa	45°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	94 mi	87 min	Calm	46°F			1015 hPa	45°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY	20 mi	64 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Light Rain	42°F	41°F	96%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York

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