Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, NY

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 6:13 AM EST (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:22PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202103031615;;398948 Fzus51 Kbuf 030843 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 343 Am Est Wed Mar 3 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-031615- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 343 Am Est Wed Mar 3 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, NY
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location: 42.36, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 030758 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 258 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably mild temperatures will return today. A frontal system drops into Central NY this afternoon with a few rain or snow showers possible. Another shot of cold air will bring scattered snow showers to Central and Northern NY tonight into Thursday morning. Remaining chilly but mainly dry Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, before more scattered lake enhanced snow showers return to the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. 245 AM Update . A mild start to the forecast period today, but then turning seasonably colder with some snow showers around this evening through Thursday.

A weak low pressure center is passing by well to our north across southern Ontario/Quebec this morning. Some warm advection induced light snow is breaking out across northern NY along the surface warm front. Some of this light snow may clip northern Oneida county around or just after sunrise . lasting a few hours. For the rest of the area, expect mild temperatures today with morning sunshine, then increasing clouds under the weak warm sector of this low pressure system. Eventually, by afternoon the system sweeps a cold front through the region from north to south. This will bring mostly cloudy skies by afternoon across CNY, along with a few light rain/snow mixed showers. Boundary layer temperatures will be too warm for any snow accumulations during the day today, with highs forecast to reach the mid-30s to lower 40s across CNY . with 45 to 50 degrees expected in the valleys of the southern tier and NE PA. Breezy west winds 8-15 mph today, with a few higher gusts.

Tonight: Another weak wave embedded in the northwest flow pattern will push through the region. This will bring better chances for scattered lake enhanced snow showers to much of our CNY zones . with a few flurries or light snow showers eventually making it into the northern tier of PA as well. Have likely PoPs in the forecast along and west of I-81 into the Finger Lakes overnight, fading to chance PoPs for the Twin Tiers region. Surface temperatures cool below freezing during the evening hours, from the higher elevations down into the valleys by midnight. Light snow accumulations up to 1 inch seem likely overnight north and northwest of Binghamton and Elmira . with just a light dusting possible further south into the hilltops of northern PA. The Wyoming Valley region likely remains dry. Overnight lows eventually drop into the 20s in most locations by daybreak Thursday.

Thursday: Expect lingering scattered snow showers in the morning on a NNW flow across the Finger Lakes and into the Twin Tiers . mainly west of I-81. These will taper to flurries and mostly dissipate by afternoon. Partly sunny elsewhere across the region, with more breaks of sun by afternoon. Breezy northwest winds 10-20 mph and remaining cold as 850mb temperatures fall to around -15C Highs only reach the mid-20s to lower 30s. except mid-30s in the Wyoming Valley.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 300 AM Update . A chilly pattern will finish out the week, with northwesterly winds sending scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries across Central New York and occasionally into the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania.

A stacked Arctic low centered near the mouth of the Saint Lawrence Seaway will dominate the period. Cyclonic flow around that low, with occasional shortwaves/reinforcing cold fronts pivoting into our region, will keep a feed of cooler-than-average air going right into the weekend. Moisture will be very limited Thursday night to midday Friday, which will make lake effect snow showers rather scant. However, lobes of deeper moisture will drop down Friday afternoon through Friday night to offer a bit more coverage for the lake effect multi-band streamers. There could be some light localized accumulations during that time for typically prone areas southeast of Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes. Saturday through Saturday night will generally be a continuation of that theme.

With renewed cold air advection, lows Thursday night will be in the single digits to mid teens, followed by highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s both Friday and Saturday. That will be about 8-12 degrees below average highs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. 300 AM Update . Though there is still some disagreement on how long the process takes, models have the same general idea that a moderation trend will finally get going early next week as the chilly stacked low opens up into a departing trough.

Chilly cyclonic flow is likely to linger into Sunday, though moisture will also become rather shallow to cause lake effect snow showers/flurries to finally wind down. We are still looking at rather cool highs of upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday, followed by radiational cooling of the very dry air mass for lows of upper single digits to teens Sunday night.

Models allow the closed low to open into an amplified trough, which lifts well northeast of our region to unlock the pattern. There is some uncertainty for how long it takes initially westerly flow to back southwesterly, but the end result of milder temperatures is similar either way. The pattern also appears rather quiet for at least a few days, before some potential of embedded waves towards the middle of next week. Though 50 degrees is not totally out of the question for a couple spots Monday, it appears more probable Tuesday- Wednesday for most of the area.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Skies will continue to be mostly clear or partly cloudy tonight with VFR conditions at all terminals. SYR and RME will have broken sky cover but still VFR. LLWS (with west winds 30-40 kts at 2k ft agl) will be present at all terminals for the rest of the overnight . until ending around 12-14z this morning.

Sky cover increases through the day today, bringing conditions down to MVFR at all NY terminals after about 18-22z this afternoon. This same system will will also bring some light snow or snow showers by this evening across the north (RME-SYR- ITH). While BGM, ELM, could see some light snow later this evening after 22-02z, confidence was too low to include that in this update. Light snow showers after 24z will bring reduced MVFR visibilities to SYR and RME. After 04/02z expect CIGS to deteriorate into the MVFR Fuel Alternate range at most of our NY TAF terminals . then eventually IFR after 04/03-05z.

AVP is expected to remain at VFR through the next 24 hours.

Expect variable winds less than 5 kts early this morning, becoming west-southwest winds 6-12 kts, with gusts up to 18 kts after daybreak and through at least midday. For this afternoon and evening wind gradually turn more west-northwest at 5-10 kts.

Outlook .

Late tonight through Thursday morning . Scattered lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to the NY terminals.

Thursday afternoon through midday Friday . Mainly VFR expected.

Friday evening through Sunday . Scattered lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to the NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . MDP LONG TERM . MDP AVIATION . BTL/MJM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY20 mi21 minSW 710.00 miFair24°F9°F52%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS5SE5E7SE10SE10SE10S9S16
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 04:44 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:19 AM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-01.32.73.84.44.54.13.320.80-0.4-0.20.723.13.84.13.93.32.21.10.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:14 AM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:59 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:49 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:06 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.93.13.94.24.13.52.51.30.4-0.2-0.40.11.22.53.33.73.83.42.61.50.6-0.1-0.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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