Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 112333 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 633 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS.

Lake effect snow showers and isolated squalls will be over the area this evening. The snow will continue across the NY Thruway corridor tonight, followed by dry weather for Thursday. Another system will bring in rain for Friday night into Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 230 pm update .

A decent December afternoon occurring. With the mainly clear skies over much of the CWA pushed temperatures up several degrees. Winds have increased from the southwest to 10 kts with higher gusts. Clouds have pushed east into the northwest counties ahead a weak front and upper level short wave. The bands of snow off of Lakes Erie and Ontario will shift south into the area late this afternoon. The band off of Lake Erie will become detached from the lake and move in with the front. With the instability and frontogenesis and few heavier snow showers should make it into the Finger Lakes between 4 and 9 PM. As it moves into south central NY it will weaken to flurries. The Finger Lakes could get up to a quick inch of snow. At about the same time the band off of Lake Ontario will shift south into northern Oneida County. The low level flow shifts to 290 this evening. This flow will continue late tonight then lift north late Thursday morning. Temperature differences are good but the moisture is shallow. Snow forecast remains at 3 to 6 inches with the most in northwest Oneida County. The winter weather advisory continues for this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Low temperatures this morning from around 10 to around 15.

Thursday morning high pressure with dry air will move into the area. Morning sunshine will give way to clouds as the high moves quickly east. Moisture will be mostly in the form of mid and high clouds. No precipitation for Thursday and Thursday night, outside of lake band Thursday morning. In addition, warm air advection will start again with deep southwest flow. High temperatures Thursday in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thursday night will be warmer with lows mostly in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday begins quiet as drier air likely keeps any chances of precipitation south of the area. However, this will be short- lived as a strengthening area of low pressure will approach the area, either riding along the east coast or a bit further inland over portions of our area. The 12Z ECMWF and NAM continues to lean towards a further inland solution, while the 12Z GFS and Canadian are a a bit further east, closer to the coast. While ultimately the results would be similar regardless of exact track (a steady rainfall to the area), this difference continues to cause some uncertainty in the exact form of precipitation at the onset on Friday before any mix changes to all rain. There continues to be the possibility of precipitation to start as some light freezing rain late Friday morning/early afternoon in portions of the Catskills, Poconos, and possibly Oneida county, before changing to rain. That being said, the bulk of the precipitation looks to hold off until later in the afternoon and especially Friday night and by then, the entire area should be just rain as temperatures will be above freezing. Highs Friday will likely be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Rain overspreads the area Friday night and continues through Saturday and into Saturday night as the low pressure system moves through the area. Rainfall amounts look to be around the one inch range for the majority of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Cold air advection begins to change the rain to snow Saturday night, especially at higher elevations (mix of rain and snow at the lower elevations). There could be some snow accumulation especially in parts of Central New York. By the second half of the night/early Sunday, the precipitation transitions from synoptic to lake effect/enhanced, although becoming more showery in nature rather than widespread precipitation. Temperatures Friday night will likely be rising from the 30s to the lower 40s by daybreak. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the lower to upper 40s. Then lows likely getting down to the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 215 PM Update:

The long term forecast remains on track and no changes were made. The previous discussion remains valid.

Previous Discussion:

Colder air wraps back across the area during the second half of the weekend into early next week, with snow showers perhaps mixed with rain showers at times. Another system may then move into the area by next Monday night-Tuesday.

With our active pattern continuing unabated, a brief brief Monday appears likely to give away to another system advancing out of our southwest Monday night or Tuesday. While models all generally have the system, they differ considerably on track and strength of the associated wave/low. Right now, odds favor some sort of all snow, to snow/mix scenario. There could be some accumulations with this, but things could easily change considering it is still about a week out; we will sort it out in coming days.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

General VFR conditions are expected for the period. Exception will be in lake effect snow, mainly at RME but also briefly at SYR, ITH, and BGM where you can see short periods of IFR conditions. Gusty northwest winds will become lighter overnight as the lake effect weakens.

Outlook . Thursday afternoon through Friday morning . VFR.

Friday afternoon . VFR to start, then rain moves in late with possible restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday . Restrictions likely in periods of rain through Saturday then rain and snow showers on Sunday.

Monday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009.

SYNOPSIS . DGM/TAC NEAR TERM . TAC SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG/MDP AVIATION . DGM/TAC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	89 mi	53 min	W 31 G 42				1026.2 hPa
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	94 mi	101 min	E 1	33°F			1024 hPa	26°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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NW22

NW18 G23

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NW16 G21

NW14 G17

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N10 G14

NE6 G9

SE4

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S8 G13

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SW12 G19

SW13 G20

W14 G24

SW12 G22

W18 G26

W25 G44

W29 G41

W35

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S17 G25

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S16 G23

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W14 G18

W21 G31

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W20 G27

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NW20 G25

2 days ago

S20 G30

S20 G28

S18 G33

S16 G27

S17 G24

S18 G27

S16 G20

S15 G22

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S13 G20

S12 G18

S13 G19

SE12 G17

S12 G19

SE11 G18

SE10 G14

SE12 G18

SE12 G18

SE12 G17

SE14 G19

S13 G20

S15 G21

S16 G22

S17 G24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY	20 mi	78 min	W 19 G 28	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy and Breezy	26°F	6°F	42%	1026 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBGM

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)

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NW10

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S10 G19

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S15 G25

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S9 G20

SW11

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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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