Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 6:54 PM   Moonset 4:51 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404230915;;213912 Fzus51 Kbuf 230148 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 948 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-230915- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 948 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear late this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Occasional showers in the evening, then rain overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Occasional rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 231045 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 645 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry again today with clouds moving in through the afternoon.
Rain showers move in tonight ahead of a cold front coming through Wednesday morning. Seasonably cold weather expected Wednesday afternoon and overnight before warmer and drier weather returns for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
635 AM Update...

Updated temperatures a bit but otherwise no changes made.

310 AM Update...

With only a few high clouds moving through early this morning it is another cold night with good radiational cooling. valleys have cooled faster than the ridges so used our fog tool to lower temperatures in the valleys. Upper level ridging is building in as well with southerly flow developing in the lower levels so despite some more filtered sun today, temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast soundings show dry air still in place above the mixing layer so odds are dew points will fall below model guidance so used the canadian reg as well as NBM 10th to get dew points lower for late morning through early afternoon. Boundary layer moisture does begin to advect in late this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.

Tonight, rain showers move in from west to east. Chances of precipitation were delayed until after 7 pm this evening as dry air in place will take some time to saturate. Looking at RH levels through the atmosphere, there does look to be a dry slot trying to nudge into NEPA and the Southern Tier as the precipitation begins so QPF amounts were lowered. Across the NY thruway, steadier precipitation is possible as the low traverses from west to east through northern NY.

Headed into Wednesday, a strong cold front moves through so day time highs will likely occur before noon with falling temperatures through the day. Really cut back on chances of precipitation especially behind the cold front as the 500 mb shortwave axis moves east of us as well as strong cold air advection. Some models still show post frontal precipitation but with the strength of the negative vorticity advection in the mid and upper levels sinking air will make it tough to get much beyond some isolated drizzle.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 AM update...

A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to mid 30s across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 AM update...

Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z this evening. Rain moves in from west to east with SYR and RME having the best chance at seeing rain reach the ground prior to 6Z but restrictions not expected untill after 6Z. Rain showers will be numerous but with lower intensity so vis restrictions are uncertain but as more moisture moves in, cigs will drop to MVFR at most terminals. AVP will hold on to some dry air so there is lower chances of seeing MVFR prior to 12Z.

Outlook...
Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again today. Min RHs will fall below 30% for much of the region with a few locations falling below 20%, mainly in warmer valley locations.
Wind gusts this afternoon will get up to near 25 mph for higher elevations and 15 to 20 mph for valley locations. With fine fuels drying out yesterday and continued drying late this morning into the afternoon, a SPS has been issued for NY counties. After coordination with NYSDEC, the decision was made to issue a special weather statement for New York, however at this time, an SPS for northeast PA will not be issued based on coordination with PA DCNR.

RH does look to recover late this afternoon into the early evening as dew points begin to rise as moisture begins to move in from the SW ahead of a cold front. Models tend to bring moisture in too quickly so RHs were kept lower until after sunset.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Tivoli
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Tue -- 02:22 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Kingston Point
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Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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