Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oxford, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front moving through the area will lead to some showers later this afternoon and into tonight. High pressure building in behind the front will lead to a breezy and noticeably cooler start to the weekend Saturday.

2) A warming trend is in store for much of next week, but it will be unsettled with the chance for some showers most days.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The sunshine that was in place through midday is fading behind increasing clouds as surface high pressure continues to retreat to the east allowing a cold front to approach from the west.
There is a decent amount of dry air in place ahead of the precipitation with dew points in the 30s and low 40s, but they are expected to rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s later this afternoon and evening. The arrival time for showers with this system looks similar to the previous discussion, reaching our far northern and western counties between 20Z-21Z, the Twin Tiers between 21Z-23Z and nearing the Poconos and southern Catskills around 00-02Z. This is a pretty quick-hitting system as showers are expected to push off to the east between 05-07Z Saturday. Lapse rates, especially in the low-levels look pretty decent along with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50 knots, but MUCAPE is running about 100-200 J/kg, so the chances for thunder look low, but can't be ruled out, especially across CNY.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.10"-0.25" with locally higher amounts. Lows tonight are mainly in the mid and upper 30s.

High pressure builds in Saturday and the flow briefly becomes northwesterly, ushering in some noticeably cooler air to start the weekend. Some lingering clouds, and a few isolated showers around north-central NY in the morning give way to sunshine.
There will be a breeze, especially the first half of the day with there being a bit of a pressure gradient between the high and departing disturbance, with northwesterly gusts of 15-25 mph. This will lead to apparent temperatures first thing tomorrow morning in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Afternoon high temperatures mainly range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s, but the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA reach the mid and upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface high pressure again slides off to our east on Sunday, and with a building upper level ridge over the Southeast, the stage is set for some much warmer conditions to move for much of next week with west to southwesterly flow developing. However, despite the warmth, the overall pattern does look to be unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and possible thunderstorms on occasion. A warm front is expected to lift north through the area on Sunday with a chance of showers, mainly later in the day and at night, especially for the northern and western counties. The parent low passes by well to our north Monday, but does drag a cold front into the area again with the chance for some showers.

Beyond Monday, the timing, placement and intensity of several frontal boundaries and areas of low pressure both at the surface and aloft becomes uncertain through Thursday. As a result, at least chance PoPs remain in the forecast through midweek.
Temperatures are expected to be very spring-like, bordering on summer with 70s and possibly near 80 a good bet for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions remain in places for a few more hours before rain showers associated with an approaching cold front begin to move in from the west, generally around 21Z. As these showers move from west to east, MVFR to IFR restrictions are expected, as both IFR cigs and occasional visibilities are in place upstream.

Most of the shower activity is expected to end by about 05Z at all terminals with some lingering MVFR/IFR cigs. Ceilings are expected to improve by mid morning at most terminals and return to VFR conditions before the end of the TAF.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chances for showers, afternoon thunderstorms, and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.