Monday, January18, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:32PM Monday January 18, 2021 8:36 PM EST (01:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 182248 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

AVIATION.

With westerly flow persisting, the Lake Michigan moist plume will sustain frequent MVFR based ceilings into the night. There will be some decrease in the mid level moisture during the night which will cause the light snow showers/flurries to undergo a gradual decrease in coverage. The brevity of any higher intensity snow showers this evening will limit any accumulations to a dusting.

For DTW . With a slightly more southwest flow in the boundary layer, the higher intensity snow showers will remain largely north of metro. This flow may also support some more prolonged erosion of the MVFR cloud deck overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday.

* High in precip type as all snow tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

DISCUSSION .

Seasonably cold, moist west-northwest flow will continue to govern conditions through tonight. A diurnal increase in lapse rates under weak cold air advection yielding a broadening region of light snow showers within the background of larger scale cyclonic flow. Shortwave energy noted exiting lake Michigan will effectively supplement this ascent while temporarily reinvigorating the downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan under a secondary period of cold air advection tonight. The net effect will be a tendency for some degree of light snow shower production to occur over roughly the next 12 hours. If recent observational trends locally and just upstream are any indication, then meaningful snowfall rates will remain transient/brief thereby limiting accumulation potential /less than an inch/.

Slightly colder thermal profile in residence Tuesday - 850 mb temperatures down around -13C. Brief period of mid level dry/warm air advection will temporarily undercut the magnitude of ongoing lake moisture flux and reduce the downstream moisture depth. This points to dry conditions, at least early in the day. Additional shortwave energy will traverse the area during the afternoon period. This could offer a brief synoptic increase in moisture depth, affording a window for some inconsequential very light snow showers or flurries to emerge within the underlying cold westerly flow. A firm gradient and modest diurnal mixing yields a gusty afternoon condition - in excess of 25 mph at times. Highs arrive right at seasonable levels - upper 20s to lower 30s. Stronger height falls commence Tuesday night as an upper wave of arctic origin dives into the mean trough. Standard increase in forced ascent via a combination of dcva and cold air advection will support an increase in snow shower coverage during this time. The general brevity of deeper layer ascent again contains accumulation prospects - less than an inch this period. Lake modified arctic air then entrenched through the Wednesday period. The existing cold west- northwest flow again lends to some light snow shower/flurry production, but a warming/drying profile upstream steadily deteriorates the lake response with time.

Building upper heights with an ensuing increase in warm air advection within low level southwest flow nets a solid, albeit brief moderating trend Wed night-Thursday. Dry conditions maintained this period, as greater moist isentropic resides well north.

MARINE .

Lake enhanced moisture will continue to bring flurries to the central Great Lakes this evening while snow hangs on overnight for northern Huron given the proximity to weak low pressure. Winds turn more south of west tonight with speeds increasing late. Surface pressure gradient contraction early Tuesday morning will lead to an increase in speeds throughout the day. Discrepancies in modeled upper level winds yield low-confidence for gusts to exceed 30 knots, but there is enough support for steady 20-25 knot winds along the Thumb shoreline to produce Small Craft Advisory waves until late Tuesday evening. A ridge of high pressure then approaches from the midwest working to maintain higher gradient winds producing moderate northwesterly flow across the local waters with occasional gusts in the 25 knot range. The offshore component of the wind is expected to keep nearshore waves below small craft criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi36 min SW 7 G 13 31°F 1014.2 hPa (+2.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi48 min WSW 8.9 G 12 31°F 1014 hPa22°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi43 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1014.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi43 minWSW 105.00 miLight Snow30°F23°F75%1014.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi43 minWSW 87.00 miOvercast29°F23°F78%1014.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi41 minWSW 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast31°F28°F87%1013.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi43 minSW 12 G 158.00 miLight Snow29°F24°F82%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW5SW6SW4W8SW6SW7W9SW6SW7SW7W8SW8W8SW9W11W10W10W13W9SW9W12SW11
1 day agoSW9SW7SW9SW7W8W8W9W7W9W10SW7SW5SW5W8W10W8W8SW8SW11SW9SW6SW5SW6SW4
2 days agoS5S5SW5SW6SW7S5SW6SW4W5W5SW4W4W4W4SW7SW6SW7SW9SW8W11W7SW5SW7SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.