Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Fxus63 kdtx 260351 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi 1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019 Aviation Vfr conditions will prevail into Monday morning as dry low level southeast flow around high pressure over quebec continues. Moisture will then increase steadily with approach of shortwave from the west with CIGS in around 5kft thicken by early afternoon and rain showers becoming increasingly likely during the mid late afternoon. In fact, showers should prevail by the 22z-24z time frame and persist into the evening as CIGS drop to at least MVFR. Winds will gust to 20 knots or a bit more again on Monday as pressure gradient remains in place as this system nudges into the area. For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will become increasingly likely after 18z on Monday with rain showers developing after 21z. CIGS will drop further and may approach ifr after 01z at the end of the forecast. Dtw threshold probabilities * medium for CIGS at or below 5,000 by 18z Monday, high Monday evening into Monday night. Prev discussion Issued at 339 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019 discussion... center of sprawling anticyclone is retreating to the canadian maritimes this afternoon as surface ridge axis holds steady back through the central great lakes. Dense cumulus field this afternoon over much of the area characterized as bkn to even ovc. 25.12z dtx raob captured a very stout subsidence inversion at approximately 4.0 kft agl that obviously did not budge per ceilometer observations. Over achievement of diurnal clouds appears to be from large supply of lake erie moisture ducted under the stout inversion. Expecting cloud to thin out erode quickly with the setting Sun before opaque high cloud arrives. The ridging influence will hold over southeast michigan throughout the overnight and first half of Monday with deeply anticyclonic flow trajectories in place from the surface through 500mb. The atmosphere is going to need a good amount of time to saturate based on residual stability subsidence forecasted between 4.0 and 14.0 kft agl. Removed pops before 18z. Combination of tropical theta E content from mid to southern mississippi river valley and convective shortwave midlevel moisture from the central plains will result in a wall of theta E content advecting directly into the forecast area Monday afternoon. Models show an upright warm front lifting directly into southeast michigan between 18-03z. Remarkable parameter space for the moisture with pwats rising from less than .8 inch at 15z to greater than 1.90 inches by 00z Tuesday. Moist adiabatic lapse rates will preclude a severe weather risk. Main item of concern will be torrential rainfall rates with deep shower thunderstorm activity. There is expected to be a strong component of warm frontal surface propagation that will lead to progressive convective element behavior. Additionally, there are no discernible mesoscale features circulations to key off at this time. Therefore, expecting rainfall during the late afternoon early evening activity to remain in check despite a thermodynamic environment that will become rapidly supportive of heavy rainfall. A second period of possible broader coverage of rainfall... Albeit brief... Will exist between 09-12z as enhanced axis of convergence from forward edge of low level jet axis pushes into southeast michigan. This forcing will also align with a theta E maximum. Fresh geopotential height falls off of potential vorticity anomaly barreling into far western great lakes will cause a midlevel trough to accelerate surge through lake michigan by Tuesday morning. The end result will be a well organized cold front that will push through southeast michigan between 15-21z tues. The actual passage will not require that much time, however, some uncertainty in the data exists with timing of the front frontal passage. At this time severe weather potential appears very low. There is some signal in the model data that a pre-frontal trough could sweep out higher instability potential before main cold front dynamics arrive. Nwp supports a highly organize frontal dynamics with this system with strong frontolysis signal approximately 21z. Could see significant increase in non-convective west wind gusts late afternoon early Tuesday evening.

Amplified upper-level trough axis and embedded shortwaves will move east across the great lakes Wednesday morning into the afternoon and will flatten out as the axis travels east into new york new england area. Cannot totally rule out some stray showers mainly across the tri-cities into the thumb tied to the stronger forcing, however, with weak isentropic downglide subsidence in place, will be hard pressed to produce any meaningful precipitation. The potential will exist to see gusty conditions during the daylight hours on Wednesday as an increase in mechanical mixing taps into stronger winds aloft. Upper-level flow to then turn zonal over the great lakes starting late Wednesday into early Thursday as broad surface high pressure system centers over the tennessee valley north into the ohio valley. Northern periphery of the high pressure system to bring dry conditions to SE mi through the midweek period while zonal flow to bring little change to day-to-day temperatures, with highs holding steady in the 70s and lows in the 50s (lower 60s over urban metro area). Models continue to try and resolve a possible cold front passing through SE mi sometime between Friday 18 - Saturday 18z, but still too much divergence noted across model runs to pinpoint rain and timing potential. Latest ECMWF model run starts to push the cold front across central michigan 12z Friday but the frontal boundary stalls across central michigan before advancing Saturday, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The GFS is quick to advance the cold front across the state throughout Friday, which would then bring dry weather on Saturday. Overall, will continue to hold pops at slight chance later this week until potential frontal passage is resolved within models. Marine... high pressure maintaining influence over the central great lakes as it departs east towards the canadian maritime. The result is east to southeast winds across marine zones that are remaining mostly around 15 knots or below. The next system across the plains will begin to impact the region as it moves into the western great lakes tomorrow. Pressure gradient will tighten and result in increasing southeast flow tomorrow veering more southerly by Tuesday. Wind speeds will be around 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25-30 knots during this time likely causing hazardous boating conditions for small crafts. Chances for showers and thunderstorms also increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Cold front swings through on Tuesday bringing a wind shift out of the west by Tuesday evening as winds decrease in strength. Hydrology... scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across southeast michigan Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A moist airmass will be encroaching on the area characterized by dewpoints in the 60s and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. The result will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall with any convective activity on Monday and again with the cold front on Tuesday. Basin- average rainfall totals will be around 0.50 to 0.75 inches. Isolated totals of 1 inch or more from stronger thunderstorms and or locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible. The main concern will be potential for localized flooding of prone urban locations if highter totals set up across these areas. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Monday through Monday afternoon for miz049-055. Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 am Monday to 5 am edt Tuesday for miz049-055. Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 4 pm edt Tuesday for lhz441-442. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... None. Aviation... ..Dg discussion... CB am marine... ... .Aa hydrology... .Aa you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	33 mi	52 min	SE 17 G 19	71°F			1019 hPa (-1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	41 mi	52 min	SE 24 G 27	72°F
45147 - Lake St Clair	43 mi	52 min	Calm	71°F	72°F	1 ft	1019 hPa (-0.5)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	47 mi	52 min	ESE 8 G 11	67°F			1018.3 hPa (-0.7)	53°F
45165	48 mi	22 min	E 16 G 23	70°F	73°F	2 ft		55°F
TWCO1	48 mi	22 min	SSE 21 G 26		74°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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SE7 G11

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N3 G7

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NE6 G11

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NW4 G7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	10 mi	4 hrs	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	63°F	55°F	76%	1019.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	13 mi	2 hrs	E 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	67°F	57°F	71%	1019.2 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	17 mi	2 hrs	ESE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	63°F	57°F	81%	1018.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	20 mi	3.9 hrs	E 4	10.00 mi	Fair	69°F	57°F	66%	1020.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	21 mi	2 hrs	E 6	10.00 mi	Fair	64°F	55°F	75%	1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.