Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 181152 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 752 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

AVIATION.

A deep mid to upper tropospheric anticyclone will steadily track from southwest Wisconsin this morning to central Lake Huron by 12Z Sunday. Strongly anticyclonic flow trajectories will support downglide and dry air advection across the terminals today. The most focused of low level subsidence will steadily push down to the Ohio border sometime by 15-17Z. The dry air is expected to be stout enough to then limit much in the way of diurnal cloud growth.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

DISCUSSION .

Uneventful frontal passage thus far tonight with only small isolated light showers having managed to briefly develop before fizzling out. No change in this trend is expected through early morning as upper level support continues pushing further away into northern Canada. The cold front clears the region by roughly 12Z this morning ending any further shower potential. High pressure follows the front settling over the region by midday. Drier air and subsidence through the mid-levels clear out lingering post-frontal cloud cover over the southern portions of the CWA by this afternoon. Clear skies across the region help to counteract the cooler airmass keeping high temps right around normal for this time of year in the mid 70s for the majority of SE MI. The exception will be the Thumb as north- northeast winds off Lake Huron keep highs in the low 70s with high 60s right along the lakeshore.

Upper level ridging over the Plains quickly advances into the Great Lakes Sunday pushing thermal troughing toward eastern Canada as the center of the surface high pressure drifts into southern Ontario. The combination of surface high pressure and the upper ridge axis shifting to our east sets up southwesterly return flow in the mid- levels advecting warmer air over the central Midwest into lower MI. 850mb temps climb over the course of Sunday reaching 14-15C late in the day allowing highs to return to near 80. Warmer airmass remains in place Monday conditionally allowing highs to reach into the low 80s even with increasing cloud cover. The condition is dependent on how quickly shower activity from the remnants of Nicholas over the Ohio/Mississippi valleys reaches SE MI. Models have been quite variable on this timing the past couple days flipping between activity holding off until late Monday evening/early night to rain starting by late afternoon. 00Z runs tonight have continued this trend with the NAM and GFS being more progressive in rain reaching the southern portions of the CWA by the afternoon whereas the Canadian and ECMWF are a bit more delayed with precip holding off until 21-00Z. Regardless over when the initial moisture plume reaches the area, the main Nicholas moisture looks to be absorbed into the deepening upper trough over the Midwest Monday night. The surge of tropical (or near tropical) moisture invigorates rain activity along the attendant surface cold front as the front reaches lower MI early Tuesday leading to widespread shower coverage by Tuesday afternoon over southeastern MI. Similar to the timing of the initial precip Monday, there are 2 camps for the how quickly the front translates across the state with the NAM/GFS again being more progressive-clearing the front by Wednesday morning whereas the Canadian/ECMWF bring slower-clearing the front by late Wednesday. This speed with have a large effect on what the storm total QPF will be for the area. Uncertainty should begin to decrease over the next couple days as we get closer to the event.

MARINE .

Post frontal northerly winds will gust around 20 knots at times this morning across southern Lake Huron. This will generate wave heights hazardous to small craft. Winds and waves will decrease during the course of the afternoon as they veer toward the northeast. This will be the result of strong high pressure expanding across the northern Great Lakes. There will be a continued veering of the winds toward the south-southeast on Sunday as the high pressure system slowly exits to the east of the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ049.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . KDK MARINE . DK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	33 mi	33 min	N 13 G 16	65°F			1023.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	41 mi	33 min	NNE 17 G 20	68°F
45147 - Lake St Clair	43 mi	33 min	N 12 G 14	66°F	71°F	1 ft	1022.2 hPa (+1.1)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	47 mi	45 min	NE 6 G 12	69°F			1021.6 hPa	58°F
45165	48 mi	43 min	NE 12 G 19	69°F	73°F	3 ft
TWCO1	48 mi	23 min	NE 15 G 21		73°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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S5

SW2 G6

S1 G4

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SW6 G10

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NE5 G8

NE5 G8

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E14 G17

E11 G14

E11 G15

NE10 G15

E9 G12

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S3 G6

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NE2 G5

E3 G6

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N2 G6

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E4 G7

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SE6

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NE4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	10 mi	40 min	NNE 9	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	68°F	53°F	59%	1022.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	13 mi	40 min	NE 9	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	66°F	53°F	63%	1022.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	17 mi	40 min	NE 7	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	64°F	53°F	68%	1022.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	20 mi	38 min	NNE 8	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	66°F	55°F	67%	1024 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	21 mi	40 min	NNE 10	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	64°F	52°F	65%	1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)

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NE12 G18

NE11 G20

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NW4

NW7

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NW9 G18

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N4

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NE3

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NE4

N3

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