Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:38PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:22 AM EST (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-191230t1215z/ 714 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 715 am est... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The wind shift has moved out of the warned area. Lat...lon 4173 8349 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4223 8319 4234 8310 4237 8299 4235 8294 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1214z 232deg 43kt 4292 8284 4267 8247 4234 8204
LCZ423 Expires:201912301224;;155656 FZUS73 KDTX 301214 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 714 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-301224-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 241521 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1021 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

UPDATE.

Isentropic upglide and copious Gulf moisture will allow drizzle/light rain showers to persist for the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Not much room for rising temperatures with easterly flow in place, with highs capping in the mid to upper-30s -- but warm enough to ensure all rain today. Closed low system, presently over Missouri/Illinois, will continue to meander northeast into lower Michigan by 06Z, introducing the chance to see areas of fog as the occluded front sets up over the state. Sufficient evidence for fog also observed over IL/MO, increasing confidence for fog chances tonight. Otherwise, no major updates to the forecast package.


PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 623 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

AVIATION .

A deep plume of low level moisture will accompany a low pressure system into the region this taf period. Brief window this morning for VFR conditions, before a steady reduction in ceiling heights emerges late morning through the afternoon as rainfall increase in coverage. The likelihood for LIFR restrictions will increase late afternoon or evening as the low advances in lower Michigan. Winds through the daylight period holding from the east around 10 knots. Maintenance of very low stratus with some component of restricted visibility in rain or drizzle will persist into tonight.

For DTW . Precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain today and tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for ceilings aob 5kft this morning, then high this afternoon through tonight.

* High in ptype as rain today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION .

Closed low over southern Missouri will modulate Southeast Michigan weather through the weekend. Widespread rain this morning is occasionally mixing with snow where rates are sufficiently high owing to low surface dewpoints. Snow has been transient, however, and temperatures continue to steadily rise. Initial moisture surge will lift through the area by around sunrise with the secondary surge following quickly on its heels. Daylight hours today charactertized by ongoing isentropic ascent within increasingly divergent flow aloft which will support periods of rain all day. Upper low will then meander toward Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday, much of this period on the drier side for most areas given the degree of dry air that has already wrapped into the core of the circulation. Snow potential emerges Saturday night through Sunday as cold cyclonic flow persists, any signal for sufficiently organized forcing to support accumulation remaining nebulous for now. Will toe the line with chc type pops and snow shower mention through the latter half of the weekend. High temps remain in the 30s, the warmer side of normal, throughout this period. Active subtropical jet once again emerges next week which will support relatively high floor on temps and introduces higher-than-normal uncertaninty into the medium range.

MARINE .

Southeasterly winds will rotate to easterly during the day today before slowly backing to northwesterly Saturday into Sunday as the low center crosses the lower peninsula. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow lasting through the day Sunday. The low is not particularly strong with a weaker pressure gradient reducing the wind potential. However, there is a small craft advisory along the Thumb Friday night as southeast flow creates higher wave action in the nearshore zone.

HYDROLOGY .

Forecast rain amounts around one half inch into existing snowpack, itself containing about one half inch liquid equiv, will cause ponding water in flood prone areas and some rises toward bankfull of area rivers and streams. However, the light rain amounts and slow release of frozen water source negate flooding potential.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . AM AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . JVC HYDROLOGY . JVC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi82 min E 13 G 15 34°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi82 min E 17 G 18 34°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi52 min ENE 8.9 G 12 34°F 1015.2 hPa31°F
TWCO1 48 mi32 min E 17 G 20

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi29 minE 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F34°F86%1016.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi29 minE 82.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1016.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi29 minE 72.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F33°F93%1016.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi27 minE 82.50 miLight Rain35°F33°F97%1017.6 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi29 minE 7 G 173.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4SE5E5E4E5E4NE4NE6NE5SE3E5E6NE11NE9E11E10E9E10E8E10E8
1 day agoSW14SW16SW12S13
G23
SW12S10S7S4S5CalmS6S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoSW8SW8SW9SW9S10SW10S8SW7SW6SW5S6S7SW6S6SW7SW7SW8S8SW8S9SW6S10SW12SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.