Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 161043 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 643 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

AVIATION.

Shortwave trough and assoicated surface low pressure will pass the area this morning. Rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms south, will be on the downtrend as this forecast begins with just a few hours or shower activity remaining 12z-14z. Cigs looks to dip to MVFR with/in wake of the rain as the surface low tracks through far southern lower Michigan. Winds will begin with an easterly component this morning, but swing to northwest and west as the low passes. Dry air within this flow will bring VFR conditions late today and clear conditions by tonight.

For DTW . Rain with perhaps a brief thunderstorm will impact the terminal through 13z or 14z before moving east. Cigs will drop to MVFR as low level moisture is pulled east into the area with low pressure this morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in thunderstorms impacting the terminal through 14z or so.

* High in cigs aob 5kft this morning, medium this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 457 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION .

Steadier elevated rain finally broke the CWA line, starting with Midland County, around 04Z with the forward progression of a previously stalled frontal boundary. The primary circulation responsible for the heavier rainfall rates expected later today remains well to the southwest (over northern IN). It will take most of the morning for this low to churn eastward, centered just south of the state line. This will delay the time-of-arrival for the heaviest precip to cross SE MI into the 10-16Z timeframe. In the meantime, favorable low-level convergence has focused activity along and north of the I-69 corridor ahead of the cold front with bands developing further south along the H7 jet.

H8-H7 moisture transport has been resolved in a less-robust capacity compared to earlier runs. However, low-level subsaturated air is quickly eroding from evaporative hydrometeors setting the stage for higher efficiency showers. The 16.00Z DTX sounding measured a PWAT value of 1.04 inches, but the original saturated layers that were confined near the CCL and within the H5-H3 layer now extend through the bulk of the column as advertised in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings. 00Z NCEP models and ECMWF solutions are all a bit weaker on the H8 low which will reduce the already minimal thunderstorm chances this morning, but also the intensity of precip whereas the H7 shortwave is a bit slower with its departure. Pulled daytime highs down a couple degrees given broad cloud coverage until late this afternoon. Expect dry conditions overnight with partly mostly clear skies and lows generally in the mid 60s as ridging arrives in quick succession.

Steering flow from the dominant upper low will clear further east on Friday with largely zonal flow aloft and stable conditions providing a dry weather day for Lower Michigan. Highs in the low 90s and muggier dewpoints looks plausible on Saturday with H7 heights running in the 90th percentile wrt to climatology. Low amplitude shortwave ripples will yield only limited opportunities for isolated pulse afternoon storms while the troposphere stays mostly capped overhead. A warm front then lifts north overnight providing limited relief as lows cool only into the low-mid 70s by daybreak.

Sunday presents hazardous weather potential for heat stress and strong to severe thunderstorms. Heat indices creep even higher for the Metro area Sunday afternoon with several hours of +100F values a real possibility. Some severe storms are expected as a high CAPE (+3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and moderate shear (+30 knots 0-6 km bulk) environment arises. A cool front moderates the column early next week with daily thunderstorm chances during the work week and temperatures within a few degrees of normal.

MARINE .

A low pressure system will continue to advance across the region today, bringing the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold front. Southerly winds will gradually become more northerly throughout the day as the low pressure system moves through the central Great Lakes. Wind gusts up to 15 knots are possible, particularly in the lower half of Lake Huron, although locally higher winds and waves are possible with thunderstorm activity. As the low exits the region tonight into tomorrow, winds will gradually back to the southwest and high pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley. This area of high pressure will persist into the weekend, before another low pressure system brings the chance for showers and thunderstorm later this weekend.

HYDROLOGY .

Rainfall has become more widespread this morning as low pressure tracks eastward, just south of the state line, and a cold front moves southeast with the progression of an upper level disturbance. Most areas will see rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches by this evening, while some areas focused along the I-96 corridor end up closer to 1.00 inch. Still expect any flooding concerns to be confined to low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially over urban locations. Basin average precipitation should remain low enough to prevent river flooding, but small rises on local rivers and streams will be possible.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . MV HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	33 mi	49 min	ENE 6 G 8	74°F			1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	41 mi	49 min	NNE 14 G 16	74°F
45147 - Lake St Clair	43 mi	49 min	N 7.8 G 7.8		74°F	1 ft	1013 hPa (+0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	47 mi	181 min	NW 6 G 7
45165	48 mi	39 min	NE 9.7 G 14	76°F	79°F	1 ft		72°F
TWCO1	48 mi	29 min	NE 12 G 15		79°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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SW6 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	10 mi	56 min	SE 9	3.00 mi	Rain	74°F	69°F	85%	1012.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	13 mi	56 min	E 6	2.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	71°F	69°F	94%	1013.1 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	17 mi	56 min	NNE 6	1.75 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	70°F	66°F	90%	1012.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	20 mi	54 min	NNE 3	1.75 mi	Rain	70°F	70°F	100%	1014.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	21 mi	56 min	Var 4	3.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	70°F	69°F	97%	1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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