Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 182248 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

AVIATION.

With westerly flow persisting, the Lake Michigan moist plume will sustain frequent MVFR based ceilings into the night. There will be some decrease in the mid level moisture during the night which will cause the light snow showers/flurries to undergo a gradual decrease in coverage. The brevity of any higher intensity snow showers this evening will limit any accumulations to a dusting.

For DTW . With a slightly more southwest flow in the boundary layer, the higher intensity snow showers will remain largely north of metro. This flow may also support some more prolonged erosion of the MVFR cloud deck overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday.

* High in precip type as all snow tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

DISCUSSION .

Seasonably cold, moist west-northwest flow will continue to govern conditions through tonight. A diurnal increase in lapse rates under weak cold air advection yielding a broadening region of light snow showers within the background of larger scale cyclonic flow. Shortwave energy noted exiting lake Michigan will effectively supplement this ascent while temporarily reinvigorating the downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan under a secondary period of cold air advection tonight. The net effect will be a tendency for some degree of light snow shower production to occur over roughly the next 12 hours. If recent observational trends locally and just upstream are any indication, then meaningful snowfall rates will remain transient/brief thereby limiting accumulation potential /less than an inch/.

Slightly colder thermal profile in residence Tuesday - 850 mb temperatures down around -13C. Brief period of mid level dry/warm air advection will temporarily undercut the magnitude of ongoing lake moisture flux and reduce the downstream moisture depth. This points to dry conditions, at least early in the day. Additional shortwave energy will traverse the area during the afternoon period. This could offer a brief synoptic increase in moisture depth, affording a window for some inconsequential very light snow showers or flurries to emerge within the underlying cold westerly flow. A firm gradient and modest diurnal mixing yields a gusty afternoon condition - in excess of 25 mph at times. Highs arrive right at seasonable levels - upper 20s to lower 30s. Stronger height falls commence Tuesday night as an upper wave of arctic origin dives into the mean trough. Standard increase in forced ascent via a combination of dcva and cold air advection will support an increase in snow shower coverage during this time. The general brevity of deeper layer ascent again contains accumulation prospects - less than an inch this period. Lake modified arctic air then entrenched through the Wednesday period. The existing cold west- northwest flow again lends to some light snow shower/flurry production, but a warming/drying profile upstream steadily deteriorates the lake response with time.

Building upper heights with an ensuing increase in warm air advection within low level southwest flow nets a solid, albeit brief moderating trend Wed night-Thursday. Dry conditions maintained this period, as greater moist isentropic resides well north.

MARINE .

Lake enhanced moisture will continue to bring flurries to the central Great Lakes this evening while snow hangs on overnight for northern Huron given the proximity to weak low pressure. Winds turn more south of west tonight with speeds increasing late. Surface pressure gradient contraction early Tuesday morning will lead to an increase in speeds throughout the day. Discrepancies in modeled upper level winds yield low-confidence for gusts to exceed 30 knots, but there is enough support for steady 20-25 knot winds along the Thumb shoreline to produce Small Craft Advisory waves until late Tuesday evening. A ridge of high pressure then approaches from the midwest working to maintain higher gradient winds producing moderate northwesterly flow across the local waters with occasional gusts in the 25 knot range. The offshore component of the wind is expected to keep nearshore waves below small craft criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	33 mi	36 min	SW 7 G 13	31°F			1014.2 hPa (+2.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	47 mi	48 min	WSW 8.9 G 12	31°F			1014 hPa	22°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	10 mi	43 min	WSW 11	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	23°F	66%	1014.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	13 mi	43 min	WSW 10	5.00 mi	Light Snow	30°F	23°F	75%	1014.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	17 mi	43 min	WSW 8	7.00 mi	Overcast	29°F	23°F	78%	1014.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	20 mi	41 min	WSW 7 G 14	10.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	28°F	87%	1013.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI	21 mi	43 min	SW 12 G 15	8.00 mi	Light Snow	29°F	24°F	82%	1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KYIP

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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