L-36.com
Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar   TAF  

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waukegan, IL

June 24, 2024 11:49 PM CDT (04:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM
Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 7:42 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  News
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 322 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am cdt Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon - .

Tonight - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south and increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt becoming west and diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
485 FXUS63 KLOT 250202 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 902 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- It is increasingly likely that a line of thunderstorms will march through area late overnight into early tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Damaging winds will be possible with these storms, particularly as you get closer to the Illinois- Wisconsin state line.

- Another round of thunderstorms appears possible tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon into Tuesday night, with some potential for severe weather and/or flash flooding, though confidence in this round of storms is low.

- Another period of active weather with strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is possible Friday into Saturday.

MESOSCALE
Issued at 901 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Convection blew up late this afternoon over extreme southeast MN into southwest WI and has been developing/spreading southeast toward our area. Looping back on water vapor imagery, this convection seems to be tied to a subtle shortwave trough emanating from eastern South Dakota.

Earlier very nice rear inflow jet was evident with small bowing segment on KMKX, but as convection neared the radar, it was evident that the rear inflow jet was remaining elevated above the stable boundary layer. Convection over the next couple of hours should continue to propagate south-southeast into northern IL with the primary severe threat likely to be hail for the next couple/few hours.

While the strongest core of the low level jet this evening should be pointed toward western WI/southern MN, guidance does show low level flow just off the deck increasing even into northern IL this evening, which will strengthen low level warm air advection and potentially lead to a maintenance or even an increase in coverage of convection through late this evening.

Evening soundings from DVN and ILX show an impressive EML has advected eastward into IL providing both very steep mid level lapse rates (evident by the gorgeous ACCAS field earlier this evening) and also a very strong capping inversion at the base of the EML. That should continue to limit the damaging wind through through late this evening.

A second area of convection is beginning to form over central MN, which guidance has been much more consistent with showing today. This convection should get fed by the core of the 50kt low level jet, likely evolving into a forward propagating MCS overnight which could threaten our area late tonight. The ongoing convection should not impact the threat for the second round to roll through later on.

Another concern is the potential for heavy rainfall. The warm front and instability gradient are oriented NNW-SSE through IL with the strengthening nocturnal wind maximum could allow for upwind propagation of convection and the potential for some training. Will continue to closely monitor mesoscale trends for potential (flash) flood watch for tonight. Greatest concern would be for our northern CWA, particularly the WI border counties, where heavy rain fell Saturday night.

- Izzi

DISCUSSION
Issued at 413 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Through Tuesday Night:

The forecast through Tuesday night remains a challenging one, though there have been some signals that have emerged in the latest hi-res guidance that have increased confidence in some aspects of our forecast.

First, convection is expected to erupt late this afternoon/early this evening near a surface triple point in the vicinity of the Twin Cities. Upscale growth of this convection into a bowing MCS appears quite likely late this evening, with Corfidi downshear propagation vectors and a northwest-southeast oriented thermal gradient across Wisconsin suggesting that the apex of this MCS will propagate southeastward into southeast Wisconsin overnight. West/southwest of the bow`s apex, convection should have a tendency to propagate in a more southerly direction, and the expectation is that this southward- propagating, quasi- zonally oriented portion of the MCS will track through our forecast area late overnight/early tomorrow morning.

Almost ubiquitously westerly flow above 850 mb should concentrate the greatest damaging wind potential in the eastward-surging segments of the MCS, and these line segments would also likely carry some QLCS tornado threat as well. The current thinking is that these more intense line segments will probably remain to our north in Wisconsin, but it could at least be a close call for our northern counties. Regardless, the substantial degree of buoyancy aloft will still support the potential for damaging downburst winds within any deep convection associated with the MCS, though the near-surface stable layer will get increasingly stout with time and southward extent, putting into question how late into the night/morning the damaging wind threat will persist.

The forecast for Tuesday remains shrouded in uncertainty and hinges heavily upon what the MCS does in the morning. With that being said, two general scenarios appear plausible. The first, and most likely, scenario is that the MCS plows through the entirety of our CWA and shunts its outflow to our south and west. This outflow would then serve as an effective frontal zone and would be the main focus for convective redevelopment Tuesday into Tuesday night, which would accordingly largely remain concentrated to our south and west. In such a scenario, most or all of our forecast area would find itself capped and sans precipitation through at least the early-mid afternoon.
However, it`s still conceivable that isolated to scattered convection could redevelop thereafter -- either within a narrow ribbon of isentropic ascent or along any surface boundaries in the area, be it the lagging true cold front and/or a potential differential heating boundary along the northern periphery of the cloud shield associated with the MCS.

The other, less likely, scenario is that tonight`s MCS largely misses us or weakens faster than expected. Either of these outcomes would likely result in either the MCS`s outflow boundary getting laid out across our forecast area during the daytime on Tuesday, or the outflow boundary becoming diffuse/getting washed out and allowing for the lagging true cold front to become the main focus for convective development in the afternoon and evening. Regardless of which boundary would become the dominant feature, it would likely get lit up with convection, much of which would become severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats given the strong to extreme degree of instability but somewhat lacking shear that would be expected to be present in this scenario. Perhaps even more concerning is that this setup would conceptually resemble a Maddox flash flood setup, with a low-level jet overriding and nearly paralleling the initiating boundary, allowing for convection to continuously regenerate and train over the same areas, which with precipitable water values near and in excess of 2" would almost certainly lead to flash flooding occurring somewhere. Though again, this scenario is the least likely of the two general scenarios for Tuesday, and if the first scenario were to verify, then the greatest potential for flash flooding should remain to the south/southwest of our forecast area.

Last but not least, there is still unsurprisingly some uncertainty for our high temperature forecast tomorrow with the first scenario generally favoring cooler (but still fairly warm)
temperatures than the second scenario. Fortunately, the heat and humidity shouldn`t be too oppressive in either scenario with 100F looking like a reasonable higher bound for peak heat indices tomorrow.

Ogorek

Wednesday through Monday:

A cold front will press across the region on Wednesday. Depending on how things evolve Tuesday evening and overnight, some convection may be ongoing across the area Wednesday morning, mainly south of I-80, but the trend should be towards a drier one through the day. Some guidance does show some fairly deep boundary layer mixing developing through the afternoon, perhaps enough to pop a few high-based showers, but this doesn`t seem like a significant enough signal to justify PoPs at this point. A brief period of dry and quiet conditions will then prevail through Thursday as a transient region of high pressure drifts overhead.

By Thursday night into Friday morning, the surface high will be departing and shuttling across the northeast, yielding a return of moist southerly trajectories in the region. A series of low- amplitude/subtle shortwaves emanating from a robust upper low pinwheeling across Montana and into Saskatchewan will likely get swept up within freshening mid and upper level west-southwesterly flow. This in turn will lead a commensurate increase in low-level warm advection across Iowa, which will eventually spill east of the Mississippi River during the day on Friday.

Latest model guidance suggests that warm advection/isentropic upglide-induced convection will probably develop late Thursday night into Friday morning across Iowa within the plume of returning elevated instability. However, latest indications are that this activity may outpace the slowly-returning elevated mixed layer leading to a gradual weakening trend through the day.
However, Friday night continues to look like a period we`ll have to watch closely, as another area of low pressure and associated cold front will be impinging on the region from the north. Ahead of this, intensifying warm advection acting on any remnant outflow from morning activity will also finally be able to impinge on the returning warm/moist sector as the kinematic parameter space also becomes more supportive of storm organization. Still pretty far out with plenty of spread and uncertainties, but this is a period we`ll continue to closely eye for a severe and also flash flood potential with PWATs forecast to surge into the 2 to 2.5 inch range.

We`ll get into another brief quiet period over the weekend as high pressure returns. From a synoptic perspective, winds may surge a bit down the lake as the high arrives which could yield a building wave/rip current potential over the weekend.

Carlaw

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast concerns for the terminals...

- Complex of thunderstorms to move through northern IL and northwest IN late tonight into Tuesday morning

- Breezy west-southwest winds Tuesday afternoon

- Another round of showers and storms possible late Tuesday afternoon evening, but low confidence

Another pleasant evening is underway across the area with VFR conditions and light southerly winds generally under 8 kts.
Though, there is a lake breeze boundary that has stalled atop ORD and MDW which has been causing winds to vary between southwest and southeast. Unfortunately the weak synoptic winds will likely allow the lake breeze to remain nearly stationary until it erodes this evening thus some variability in winds can be expected at the Chicago terminals.

The main forecast concern for tonight will be the complex of thunderstorms that is trying to get organized across northeast Minnesota. Once this complex forms it is expected to track southeast into northern IL after midnight and eventually reach northwest IN shortly before daybreak. However, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed unexpectedly along a warm front in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin which may complicate the evolution and track of the aforementioned storm complex overnight. While the storm cluster thus far has maintained itself, it does appear that it may begin to outrun the better instability as it tracks into southern Wisconsin this evening and possibly weaken as it does so. If this holds true then this cluster will pose no risk for the terminals, but if the cluster holds together than there is a chance storms could arrive at the terminals prior to 03z this evening. Given the uncertainty in regards to the evolution of this cluster I have decided to forego a formal mention in the TAFs and maintain the existing timing for the storms overnight into Tuesday morning which still seems reasonable.

Thunderstorms should come to an end at the terminals by late morning Tuesday as the storm complex moves out of the area.
Though, some lingering showers may persist behind the complex for a few hours Tuesday morning. Otherwise, Tuesday afternoon looks to be mostly dry with SCT to BKN VFR clouds and breezy southwest winds gusting 20-25 kts.

There is still the potential for a second round of showers and storms to develop late Tuesday afternoon and evening if the atmosphere can recover in the wake of the morning storms. As of right now it appears that if this scenario where to occur it would be south of the terminals, but given uncertainty in the environment this remains low confidence. Therefore, have not introduce a formal mention for any showers or storms for Tuesday afternoon or evening with this update.

Yack

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45186 0 mi30 minE 9.7G14 69°F 63°F1 ft
45187 8 mi30 minSSE 16G21 68°F 63°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi50 minSSW 9.9G15 74°F 29.82
45174 18 mi40 minSE 5.8G7.8 71°F 68°F1 ft29.8571°F
45199 24 mi50 minSSE 31 65°F 66°F1 ft29.80
OKSI2 33 mi110 min0G1.9 77°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi30 minS 17G17 86°F 76°F
45198 35 mi30 min 74°F 70°F1 ft29.91
CNII2 37 mi20 minSSE 7G8 73°F 67°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 44 mi30 minESE 8.9G11 70°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi50 min0G2.9 80°F 29.9367°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      HIDE   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL 5 sm58 minvar 0610 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 73°F66°F78%29.89
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI 17 sm56 minSSW 159 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 73°F66°F78%29.85
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 19 sm57 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy73°F72°F94%29.93
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KUGN
   
NEW Forecast page for KUGN (use "back" to return)

Wind History graph: UGN
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help

Tide / Current for
   EDIT      HIDE   Help

Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
EDIT   HIDE



Chicago, IL,




NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE