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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 646 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 knots or less. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 022049 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Spotty showers and some drizzle continues over north central NY this evening. A round of steadier rain is expected Sunday as a low pressure system moves through. Temperatures will be above average into early next week. The pattern remains unsettled next week, with a cooling trend and perhaps some snow showers by mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
345 PM Update...

Spotty showers and pockets of drizzle continue to work their way across CNY, but they will be diminishing this evening and becoming more concentrated near and north of the NYS Thruway and around the Finger Lakes along a stalled frontal boundary.
Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Southeast will be moving north along the spine of the Appalachians overnight and rain will be pushing in from the south before daybreak tomorrow.
Rain is expected to reach NE PA between 4-6 AM and reach the Southern Tier prior to daybreak. Rain will continue to spread northward across the rest of CNY through the morning.
Temperatures will be relatively mild tonight with lows in the lower 40s. Northern Oneida County will slip back into the upper 30s.

As this low moves to the east and off the mid-Atlantic coast during the mid-to-late afternoon, a second area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes enhancing showers over CNY into the evening. Some of the CAMS do hint at the potential of a gusty line of showers moving west to east over the area during the evening hours, so this will be something to watch. Despite the clouds and rain, the flow will be generally out of the south keeping it mild with highs tomorrow in the upper 40s and low 50s. Rainfall totals for late tonight through tomorrow night are still on track to range between 0.50-1.00 inch.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 PM Update:

Surface low pressure over Lake Ontario will lift into the middle Saint Lawrence Valley by Monday morning. Steadier rain will lift out of the area Sunday night, with W to WNW flow bringing lake effect rain showers, mixing with snow at times in higher elevation areas heading into Monday morning. 850 mb temps will be in the -5 to -7C range, promoting light precipitation, continuing into Tuesday as precip changes to mostly light snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM Update:

Expect some fluctuation in light lake effect snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, with light precip still favored. A clipper system may drop into the area Thursday, spreading rain and snow showers over most of the area through the early evening hours, before diminishing again. SW flow will bring warmer temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday, with precip chances lingering over north-central NY.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM Update

Variable conditions remain in place across much of the area this afternoon, mostly ranging between VFR and MVFR with regards to both ceilings and visibility. With a stalled frontal boundary draped near SYR and RME and just north of ITH, this will be the main area that can see spotty showers into this evening with MVFR or Fuel Alt. ceilings expected to fall to IFR levels or even lower tonight. Ceilings may improve slightly in this region very early tomorrow morning to around fuel alt conditions before rain pushes up from the south and drops both ceilings and visibility to IFR or lower for the rest of the TAF period.

ELM and BGM are expected to see ceilings fall from VFR to MVFR and fuel alt. later this evening as the front off to the north begins to drift southward. By early tomorrow morning IFR conditions are expected as rain moves in between 10-12Z. AVP has recently lifted to VFR with low ceilings and visibility both improving, but both will drop again overnight, especially after 11Z with the incoming rain and will be IFR or worse for the rest of the TAF.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions likely, especially for the CNY terminals, due to lingering rain showers and areas of fog.

Monday through Tuesday...Possible restrictions due to rain and snow showers.

Wednesday...Mostly VFR.

Thursday... Restrictions possible due to snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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