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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 345 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy this evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 060020 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 720 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

AVIATION

Ohio valley low pressure exiting eastward has taken today's light rain/snow mix out of the area. Broad high pressure follows from the Plains into the Great Lakes by morning and moves steadily through SE Mi during Wednesday afternoon. A disorganized decrease in clouds occurs between systems this evening, although with a more definitive ceiling improvement from MVFR to VFR spreading north to south across the region. Cloud trends over Lake Huron will be monitored while expecting a further decrease of lower VFR clouds inland over the terminal corridor after midnight and as favorable NNW wind holds much of the morning. A general backing trend in wind direction then occurs as the surface high slides eastward and this brings Lake Michigan supported MVFR stratus back into SE Mi mid afternoon into Wednesday evening.

For DTW... No additional precipitation is expected tonight through Wednesday. MVFR ceiling becomes broken VFR below 5000 ft this evening and then breaks up after midnight. Clear to scattered cloud cover holds through Wednesday morning with sub 10 kt NW wind.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less this evening. Moderate Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 333 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

DISCUSSION...

Low pressure clipper system will wash out across the Appalachia this evening which will mark the end of the light rain/snow that fell across portions of SE MI through this morning and afternoon, generally from M59 south. Some localized temperature minima within an already established upper level trough trough across the Great Lakes will briefly encroach upon the northern Thumb as the low-level flow backs a little more to the north-northwest. This will bring the low-end chance (25%) for light snow showers around the Lake Huron shoreline this evening into early tomorrow morning with the possibility for a few-tenths of an inch of snow accumulation.
However, the most probable scenario is that snow chances remain offshore.

Periods of overnight clearing will be possible once this subtle backing of low-level flow takes place which will advect some of the dry air observed on satellite across northern lower Michigan down into SE MI. This will support overnight lows in the mid-20s for most locations, warmer along the Lake Huron shoreline and urban Metro area. Still, some pockets of redeveloping stratus or streaming higher based clouds will also be a possibility overnight under a strengthening low-level inversion, more likely outside of the Tri- Cities, which in this scenario can hold minimum temperatures to just below the freezing mark.

The upper-level trough will expand into the Atlantic Ocean through tomorrow morning and will open the door for an expansive but moderately amplified central continental ridge to filter into the Great Lakes Wednesday into early Friday. There will be a chance for some flurries tomorrow evening as a final push of lake moisture is released inland, just ahead of an advancing warm front. Otherwise, any chance for measurable precipitation will be confined to the northern Tri-Cities to northern Thumb and south into Port Huron, late tomorrow night into early Thursday morning. Slight enhancement to low- level theta-e from the north coincides with increasing low- level system relative isentropic lift. This weak forcing will bring the chance (30%) for snow showers where a few- tenths of an inch up to a half- inch of accumulation will be possible. Last, there are some model soundings which show poor moisture quality w.r.t the dgz, so will have to also consider the very low end chance (10%) for a brief period of freezing drizzle. Otherwise, the remainder of Thursday will be dry for all locations as a strong push of waa commences through the day. Above normal temperatures are expected with highs in the 40s.

The development of low pressure across the northern Plains will amplify the Great Lakes ridge into Friday, supporting daytime highs in the 50s with the continuation of dry weather. Attention will then turn to this weekend, where a dynamic low pressure system is projected to impact the greater portion of the Midwest and Great Lakes, which will extend into the continental east. An upper-level wave is expected to arrive onshore across the Pacific northwest late Thursday into early Friday morning and will amplify an upper-level trough across the desert SW. Downstream amplification will take place as a result and will push Gulf moisture well into the Great Lakes with PW values extending to or above .75 inches through southern Michigan. Scattered to widespread rain will likely start to fill in across SE MI on Saturday as a result. The development of a low pressure system will then ride northeast along a strong baroclinic zone with the trough turning negatively tilted on Sunday.
This will again support widespread precipitation across the Great Lakes.

At this time there is immense spread regarding where the low pressure system will center, which is quite common this far out given limiting sampling of the governing waves. Cyclone center will have implications on p-type for Sunday. Low pressure that travels over or north of SE MI will place us in the warm conveyer belt, susceptible to periods of heavy rain, while any eastward placement would expose portions or all of SE MI to a cold trowal component of the low, where accumulating snow would then be likely. The 10th to 90th MaxT percentiles range from 36 to 56 degrees for Detroit on Sunday (Saginaw is 35 to 56), no surprise owing to the large uncertainty of cyclone placement.

At this time, a large majority of model output supports a warmer solution, favoring rain, and this is noted in WPCs Day 6 (Sunday 12Z - Monday 12Z) winter weather outlook, which places all of SE MI within a 10-30% chance for exceeding .25" of liquid equivalent snow. Overall, this will be a system to monitor as the weekend approaches.

MARINE...

A low pressure clipper system will wash out into the Appalachia this evening, allowing a ridge of high pressure to expand into the Great Lakes. This will bring a period of lighter winds with wind direction from the north-northwest. A warm front is then expected to travel across the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon which will back wind direction from the northwest to the southwest. A weak area of low pressure will build into the northern Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday which will strengthen the pressure gradient while wind directions back to the southwest. This will bring a localized area of breezy conditions across the Saginaw Bay Wednesday night into Thursday morning with gusts ranging between 20-25 knots along with building wave heights. Small Craft Advisories will be likely leading into Thursday morning. A secondary ridge of high pressure will fill back in Thursday afternoon, bringing another window for lighter winds. Unsettled weather is expected late in the week leading into early next week as a strong low pressure system moves through or in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Rain, snow, and windy conditions will be possible, pending the final position of the low.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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